2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Brittain33]

National, state, and district polls

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[Brittain33]

Can this be the house polling thread too? Like 2018 "Congressional Generic/House Polls"? So we can put district polls in here when they start trickling out.

Good idea. I'll update the title.

[Brittain33]

http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/21/politics/cnn-poll-midterm-elections-generic-congressional/index.html

D: 49%
R: 44%

[Brittain33]

Do we have any theories here? Is the shutdown repolarizing Republicans to their party? Or is there a tax cut bump for Republicans?

[Brittain33]

Our lead in the GCB is sub-7 (per 538) for the first time in a long time. Consider me very worried.

Well, I'm not happy, but Dems leading the congressional ballot by 7 points is still a very good result for Dems for a midterm. It just eats through any cushion we had. Mark me down as a complete disbeliever in "trends" and extrapolation.

[Brittain33]

Do we have any theories here? Is the shutdown repolarizing Republicans to their party? Or is there a tax cut bump for Republicans?

This poll was pre-shutdown.

Yeah but we've been in pre-shutdown Trump-vs-Schumer mode for a week....

[Brittain33]

Nothing from LimoLiberal on this one, but he's happy to tout NRCC internals showing bad Dem numbers.

LimoLiberal has posted plenty of poll results that are bad for Republicans.

[Brittain33]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-poll

While Trump's approvals were hurt by the shutdown, it seems as though it has helped the GOP on the generic ballot (now with 6.5 points).

No idea why the ABC poll isn't in there.

It hasnt been updated in a day.

No matter how many times I reload.

[Brittain33]

Yougov/Economist 1/30

Democrats: 42
Republicans: 37

And Reuters/Ipsos went from D+8 to D+7.

This is an improvement from their previous poll which was

Democrats: 41
Republicans: 37

[Brittain33]

Is it a fair assessment to say that the closing we are seeing is some share of Republican voters feeling better about their party and coming home to supporting it in the generic ballot? I'm looking at Monmouth where the Dem top line isn't different from other top lines, but the Republicans at 45% are much higher than other polls having Republicans in the 30s.

Yes, I'm aware it's one poll.

[Brittain33]

This isn't an apples-to-apples comparison with past elections. Incumbents always look bad in these matchups.

[Brittain33]

This is fascinating. The Upshot at the NYT estimates that the impact of court-ordered redistricting in Pa., Va., Florida, and NC, Republican retirements, and Democratic recruitments has added the equivalent of 2 points to the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot. In other words, it's made it easier for Democrats to take control equivalent to 2 points on the generic ballot but in a way that won't show up in the polls.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/12/upshot/big-republican-advantages-are-eroding-in-the-race-for-house-control.html

[Brittain33]

This is fascinating. The Upshot at the NYT estimates that the impact of court-ordered redistricting in Pa., Va., Florida, and NC, Republican retirements, and Democratic recruitments has added the equivalent of 2 points to the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot. In other words, it's made it easier for Democrats to take control equivalent to 2 points on the generic ballot but in a way that won't show up in the polls.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/12/upshot/big-republican-advantages-are-eroding-in-the-race-for-house-control.html

Funny how the gerrymandering of California and Maryland is ok but NC and VA isn’t.

1. California isn't gerrymandered.
2. Maryland is actually being challenged in the courts and could be overturned along with a bunch of other maps, FWIW.
3. Nothing in the article nor my summary said anything about gerrymandering being ok or Dem gerrymandering being ok. There is no value judgment. (That said, I'm on the record everywhere that gerrymandering sucks whoever does it.)
4. No one mentioned Ohio, either. Does that mean they're ok with that Republican gerrymander?

[Brittain33]

This is fascinating. The Upshot at the NYT estimates that the impact of court-ordered redistricting in Pa., Va., Florida, and NC, Republican retirements, and Democratic recruitments has added the equivalent of 2 points to the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot. In other words, it's made it easier for Democrats to take control equivalent to 2 points on the generic ballot but in a way that won't show up in the polls.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/12/upshot/big-republican-advantages-are-eroding-in-the-race-for-house-control.html

Funny how the gerrymandering of California and Maryland is ok but NC and VA isn’t.

California wasn’t gerrymandered.

Just because it has a “nonpartisan districting Committee” doesn’t mean it isn’t gerrymandered. Especially when criteria for districting is matching so called “communities of interest.”

Nevertheless, California wasn't gerrymandered.

[Brittain33]

who care about partisan polls?

It's a Dem group, isn't it?

[Brittain33]

PA 18 will be the first good test.   Trump is almost even in approval in PA in the Morning consult poll.  Both parties are significantly involved.nt the issue.  What

I believe the Democrats need to take Trump’s bargain on immigration, if they do not want a backlash.  The majority actually support the parts of the bargain.  Then you can hope Trump’s base revolts against nearly 2 million in effect given amnesty.

But then what do I know about how Democrats think?  You may want the issue.  Whatever!

Do you think that failing to get forensic analysis on the yearbook set the Dems back on the generic ballot, Arkansas Yankee? That could explain the R+1 we're now citing.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/968137928223461379

There's an updated graph of the current generic ballot vs. historic Generic ballot and this is the point historically where we decline from a local peak.

[Brittain33]

I have a feeling Don Young could actually be vulnerable if that polling is accurate.

I still don't think the Alaska electorate matches the profile of who is swinging away from Trump other than being younger than average. It's heavily white, male, fossil fuel-oriented, not highly educated, and minority communities are well connected with their representative and can vote based on that.

[Brittain33]

Anyone here know the House popular vote of the Dem landslides of the 1930s?

http://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/Election-Statistics/

Alright so the GOP won the House PV by 9 points in 1930 and the Dems won it by 13 in 1934. Doesn't list PV total for 1928, 1932, and 1936 though - just the PV for the presidential elections. I would have expected something in the ballpark of a 15-20 PV win in those elections tbh.

Bearing in mind that the popular vote in solid Dem states like South Carolina and Mississippi was something like 50,000 people (I'm exaggerating but most people were disenfranchised.)

[Brittain33]

The word "unopposed" appears 77 times on the Wikipedia page for the 1930 House elections. At least a few of them are Republicans and some of them may not be next to candidates' names, but mostly it's Democrats.

[Brittain33]

As someone pointed out, how is he getting private poll results when he's raised like 85 cents?

[Brittain33]

Since Trump's numbers remained relatively stable in that Pew poll, I'm gonna chalk up such a huge movement to a wacky sample.

I don't like the results of the poll, therefore it is bad.

Weren't you going to leave the forum for a week?

[Brittain33]

It is not I who has placed great emphasis on the generic vote this far out.  But the D advantage has been headed down.

Except for 2010 in midterms the GOP has run 3 to 4 points better than the final RCP average. We shall see.

Do you think Dems will underperform because they didn’t send out Moore’s yearbook solicitation of teenagers for independent scientific handwriting analysis, Arkansas Yankee? I remember your predicting that would doom Doug Jones. 😂

[Brittain33]

We had anti administration waves in 2006, 2010, and 2014.  Actually history would mitigate against a 4th similar wave.

Evidence of different projections for college educated and non college voters would support such a likelihood.

In 2016 we all know the nation voted like 2 different nations. It may be that division will continue in 2018.  It may we’ll be that national generic polls may well mask this division.

You know in 2016 we were all surprised Trump was elected, that the GOP retained the Senate, and the GOP did not lose more seats in the House. Surprise again.

You also predicted Roy Moore would win, too.

Your posts follow a general theme: Republicans are winners, Republicans are in charge, Democrats will lose and anything they do to fight their fate is futile and will only help Republicans. This speaks more to a psychological imperative many Republicans feel to be in charge and the winners in society than an actual analysis of the issues.

[Brittain33]

Btw, I wonder if Sean T at RCP will shift any ratings.

Lmao