2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just to start off the new thread, here are the 5 latest generic ballot polls in the 538 database.  Some of these may have been reported in the other thread, but I don't think they all were.

Pew Research, Jan 10-15, 1215 RV       D 53, R 39 (D+14)
Ipsos/Reuters, Jan 11-15, 1299 RV       D 41, R 35 (D+6)
Morning Consult, Jan 11-16, 1993 RV    D 41, R 38 (D+3)
Quinnipiac, Jan 12-16, 1212 RV            D 50, R 39 (D+11)
YouGov, Jan 14-16, 1309 RV                D 42, R 36 (D+6)

Current 538 average: D 47.5, R 39.3 (D+8.2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Jan 14-18, 1261 RV

D 42 (+1)
R 36 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/21/politics/cnn-poll-midterm-elections-generic-congressional/index.html

D: 49%
R: 44%

Thanks for actually formatting that.

Not sure why CNN is running with at as a bad number for Dems.

It's a bad trend for D's relative to previous CNN polls.  Their last two results were D+18 in December and D+11 in November.

[GeorgiaModerate]

http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/21/politics/cnn-poll-midterm-elections-generic-congressional/index.html

D: 49%
R: 44%

Thanks for actually formatting that.

Not sure why CNN is running with at as a bad number for Dems.

It's a bad trend for D's relative to previous CNN polls.  Their last two results were D+18 in December and D+11 in November.

And LimoLiberal is already running with it over at RRH

Another thing to consider is that CNN's results on this question have been fairly noisy.  The history since they started asking it monthly:

Aug D+9
Sep D+6
Oct D+16
Nov D+11
Dec D+18
Jan D+6

Having said that, it's clear there's been some closing of the margin on the generic ballot in the last month.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It’s January and there’s nothing better to talk about, I guess, but the pantswetting over a wildly swingy CNN poll isn’t healthy for anyone - nor is arguing over it

Yep. There's 288 days and at least 30 new Trump controversies left until the election.

I'll take the over on the number of controversies.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Cohn's thoughts on this:

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And Harry Enten's:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Abc has dems up 12 and winning indies by 16 https://mobile.twitter.com/ThisWeekABC/status/955411033031626752

This seems to be the major finding of this poll:

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Another one is that the lead is 12 among RV but grows to 14 among LV.  This supports the idea that increased D enthusiasm is filtering into the LV screens.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[GeorgiaModerate]

It's clear the Democrats have a massive problem. Yougov went from D+6 to D+4 this week even as Trump's approval went down. Disastrous month.

If this is true, it’s going to be worse then I thought, by the way can you post the yougov poll?

yeah whoa you guys are so smart. the numbers going down means democrats wont do good, i cant belive that they dont see that? there so dumb that even TRUMP has insmarted them

The new gimmick was funny for about one post, Doc.

Geometric progression of humor (use a joke once, you're a wit; use it twice, it decreases by half).

[GeorgiaModerate]

January seems to be a bit of a “choose your own adventure” month thus far

There was also a wide variation in polls near the end of both VA-GOV and AL-SEN, although a lot of that was due to differing likely voter screens.  But most of the generic ballot polls are RV, so it wouldn't be as much of a factor.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The issue is that for the Republicans, Pelosi has not been proven to negatively affect the Democrats significantly lately. They tried this in both GA-06 and Montana and both those races we're still a lot closer than they probably should've been.

Voters for whom Pelosi is a strong negative are probably motivated Republicans already, so the net effect of focusing on Pelosi is likely to be minor.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Jan 21-25, 1960 RV

D 42, R 35 (no change from previous survey)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The issue is that for the Republicans, Pelosi has not been proven to negatively affect the Democrats significantly lately. They tried this in both GA-06 and Montana and both those races we're still a lot closer than they probably should've been.

Voters for whom Pelosi is a strong negative are probably motivated Republicans already, so the net effect of focusing on Pelosi is likely to be minor.

Voters for whom Trump is a strong negative are probably motivated Democrats already, so the net effect of focusing on Trump is likely to be minor.

(The above is a patently absurd statement meant to demonstrate the absurdity of another, similarly absurd statement)

Not really.  I suspect Trump's disapproval among non-Democrats is higher than Pelosi's among non-Republicans.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We need a T- avatar for the dedicated trolls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/Survey Monkey

Democrats: 45%
Republicans: 39%

I couldn't find a previous NBC/Survey Monkey poll, but according to 538 the last NBC poll was with Wall Street and it was

Democrats: 49%
Republicans: 43%

Those aren't really comparable (other than in the sense that all generic ballot polls are comparable).  They're different polling organizations, and the SurveyMonkey poll is of all adults while the NBC/WSJ one is of registered voters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ABC has dems up 14 but more importantly have a massive enthusiasm gap as 51% of dems are "highly motivated to vote" vs only 34% rep http://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/strength-party-strongholds-key-midterm-outcomes-poll/story?id=52795264&__twitter_impression=true

FWIW, this poll was conducted Jan. 15-18 and the topline of D+14 was released on Jan. 22.  (Source) The additional details on the enthusiasm gap were embargoed until today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The GOP is finished. Libs using extra monies from Trump tax scam to send to lib candidates

That's all you ever post in these types of threads I swear.

Because elections are predictable if you know what to look for. This site absolutely loses it with 1 bad poll while ignoring the special election victories in deep red districts, gobs of money being raised, Trump's abysmal approval rating, etc...

Except unlike 2010 and 2014 the GOP is more popular than Trump (in 2010 Obama was more popular than the Dem Party)

No, they're not.  Don't confuse their result in the generic ballot with their popularity.

CNN Nov 2017: 30% approval

CNN/SSRS Sep 2017: 29%

Gallup Sep 2017: 36%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Funny how 538 hasn't updated their tracker with the ABC News poll yet. Guess they gotta keep their "what happened to teh Democratic wave" story on the front page.

Nothing funny about it.  As I pointed out upthread...this poll was conducted from Jan 15-18.  The D+14 topline was reported on Jan 22 and has been included in the 538 average for some time (click "Show More Polls" because it's old enough to have fallen off the initial list).  It's only the enthusiasm gap numbers that were released later.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Back to out regularly scheduled programming of Blue Wave Imminent!

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It's interesting how similar the shapes of those two curves are.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP, Jan 25-Feb 2, 900 adults

D 46, R 41 (D+5)

I don't find a previous one to compare this with.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, Feb 2-5, 1333 RV

D 49, R 40 (D+9)

Their previous poll was 51/38 (D+13).

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Feb 4-6, 1500 adults (1320 RV)

D 43, R 37 (D+6)

Their previous poll was 42/37 (D+5).

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov’s shift is basically noise, if only +1 to D’s.

They have consistently been within a very narrow range on the generic ballot since the beginning of December (8 surveys).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Now that the GOP's bump has receeded, back to our 🌊 tsunami

New Marist Poll - Generic Congressional Ballot D's Lead By 11

That's 49/38 D.  Their previous poll (last month) was 46/40 D.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb 4-8, 2141 RV

D 41 (-2)
R 38 (+3)