2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[BudgieForce]

It's just noise created by response rates.

[BudgieForce]

I think Dems will narrowly miss taking the House, big gains in CA,PA,NY and other suburban districts but middling elsewhere notably the rust belt to get to the 210-216 range. Hopefully Pelosi will finally get the boot then.

Why, because a couple of polls 10 months out have moved back towards the incumbent party? They'll head the other direction soon enough.

[BudgieForce]

It's clear the Democrats have a massive problem. Yougov went from D+6 to D+4 this week even as Trump's approval went down. Disastrous month.

Ipsos and Morning Consult both showed increases.

[BudgieForce]

A +7 lead seems a safe bet right now.

[BudgieForce]

Even with that Monmouth poll, the RCP average still has the Democrats up by 7.5

"Throw it in the average" is always the best answer for an outlier.

[BudgieForce]

Perhaps it'd be better if we just all logged off and came back in November because this sucks.

[BudgieForce]

Morning Consult isnt a joke pollster, they're just not very good. They never released any state polls in 2016 and their national daily tracker was questionable at best.

[BudgieForce]

YouGov is better than Morning Consult but neither inspire much confidence.

[BudgieForce]

Quinnipiac is +10 for dems.
Dems - 48%
Repubs - 38%

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2526

[BudgieForce]

Apparently Rasmussen did a generic ballot poll.

Democrats - 46%
Republicans - 40%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

[BudgieForce]

NBC, March 10-14
https://mobile.twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/975356153071841286
D - 50%(+1)
R - 40%(-3)

[BudgieForce]

If the polls are this predictable, what's the point in even tracking them anymore?

[BudgieForce]

Im not sure if LimoLiberal is trolling anymore.

[BudgieForce]

PPIC is a good pollster. I just take issue with using it to think there will actually be an 11 point rightward shift in California.

[BudgieForce]

Who cares that the margin is the same as it was in February? Poll numbers fluctuate due to the MoE. Talk to me in like October.

[BudgieForce]

oof, generic ballot below 6, not that it matters this early out, but still curious what caused it

Nothing caused it. It's going to fluctuate.

[BudgieForce]

Heads up, a new Fox News poll has the generic ballot at +5 for democrats.

[BudgieForce]

Oh god is this that time when Trump approval goes slightly up and CGB tightens a but and Atlas has a freaks out

Yep, just like every other time.

Only 7ish months to go...

I need another hobby.

[BudgieForce]

Fox News Poll 3/25 (Last poll was October 2017)


Democrats - 46 (-4)
Republicans - 41 (+6)

Went from D+15 to D+5.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/03/25/fox-news-poll-gap-narrows-on-2018-vote-preference.html

There was a poll in January

There was but Fox News has forgotten to mention it, I wonder why? /s

[BudgieForce]

It's March.

Edit: "Narrowest it's even been" in effing March.

[BudgieForce]

The advantage with all adults is +10 which makes me curious why their registered voter screen filtered out so many people.

[BudgieForce]

I'd rather be having alarmingly close polls now rather than the final week a-la 2016. I barely slept the entire beginning of November that year.

And I wouldn't call it alarmingly close just yet. A +3(Quinnipiac), +4(ABC) and a +7(NBC) in mid April is consistent with a Dem advantage. At this point you'd expect some fluctuations. If +3 or less becomes the average though, then dems should start to worry.

[BudgieForce]

That Monmouth poll only represents a 2.88% shift from 2016 in the GOP held districts.

Then again, dems take the house if they just do 2.88% better than Hillary in every district.

How did you get that?

[BudgieForce]

That Monmouth poll only represents a 2.88% shift from 2016 in the GOP held districts.

Then again, dems take the house if they just do 2.88% better than Hillary in every district.

Those Romney/Clinton voters are coming home due to the tax bill, so good luck with that.

Not in New Jersey they're not. You know how many upper middle class NJ republicans got screwed because they hit the new deduction cap?

[BudgieForce]

It's so maddening how we get hit with low-mid single digit D+ GCB polls, only to see other state-level polls or special election results that indicate a much worse environment for Republicans. Like, you get WaPo with D+4 a month after a Democrat picked off an R+11 district in Pennsylvania. Those two are not compatible with each other.

It's also annoying because the poll trend is weaker than it was in 2006, which seemed to show a lot more double digit polls, but at the same time, it's not 2006 anymore. Not only have the coalitions shifted, but probably even polling itself has gone through some decent changes, on top of the political environment being so different. So I don't really think Democrats need to have a huge polling lead to feel safe about the election.

But in the end I'd love the peace of mind that 2006-level polls would provide, so, meh. The polls keeping jumping around, but it still seems like at least a D+8 - D+10 environment.

On the other hand, alot of polls in 2006 vastly overestimated democrat performance. I'd rather polls be underestimating Dem support rather than overestimating it.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2006_generic_congressional_vote-2174.html

Lets remember dems won the generic ballot by 8 points.
Seriously, look at some of these A+ pollsters final polls:

CNN - +20%
FOX - +13%
NBC - +15%
CBS - +18%