2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Gass3268]

LA Times/USC (National):

Democrats 51%
Republicans 40%

Source

[Gass3268]

Probably going to get a Generic Ballot poll later today from NBC/Wall Street Journal.

[Gass3268]

I’ve seen anywhere between 4-8 points as necessary to retake the House. Average is better than that now.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Abc has dems up 12 and winning indies by 16 https://mobile.twitter.com/ThisWeekABC/status/955411033031626752

This seems to be the major finding of this poll:

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[Gass3268]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-poll

While Trump's approvals were hurt by the shutdown, it seems as though it has helped the GOP on the generic ballot (now with 6.5 points).

No idea why the ABC poll isn't in there.

[Gass3268]

CA-39: Young Kim (R) leads potential Democratic challengers

http://www.anaheimblog.net/2018/01/18/cd39-did-beltway-prognosticators-overreact-to-royce-retirement/

Remington Research, and they don't give the actual poll release so take it with a grain of salt.

But it shows generic ballot 47-47 TIED, and Trump approval 45-49 (in a district he lost by 8 points!).

There is two matchups between Assemblywoman Young Kim (R), who has the endorsement of Royce, and possible democratic challengers.

Kim (R): 41
Cisneros (D): 38

Kim (R): 42
Tranh (D): 33

One of the worst polls I've seen for Democrats since the 2016 election.

Lol Remington, can move this to Likely D.

[Gass3268]

Republicans are nearing extinction as a party as their collapse continues in a new Quinnipiac poll:

51% Democrats (+1)
38% Republicans (-1)

Source

[Gass3268]

January seems to be a bit of a “choose your own adventure” month thus far

There was also a wide variation in polls near the end of both VA-GOV and AL-SEN, although a lot of that was due to differing likely voter screens.  But most of the generic ballot polls are RV, so it wouldn't be as much of a factor.

I think Mourning Consult does a LV screen like Rassy, even this far out.

[Gass3268]

Monmouth

Democrats: 47 (-4)
Republicans: 45 (+9)

[Gass3268]

Republicans lead by only 6% in ALL of the districts they hold.

[Gass3268]

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https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/960876827517571072

Devastating numbers.

They also have re-elect numbers. Knight is confirmed DOA as we sit and Rohrabcher is in real trouble.

[Gass3268]

Another fun graph:

[Gass3268]

DOOOOOOOOOM

In all seriousness that’s a good poll, but it’s only one poll; and I’m not getting excited unless I see corroboration

G. Elliot Morris' graph of historical data suggests we should be nearing the high point for the White House Party.

[Gass3268]

Also don't look now, but the average is up to ~7.5 D, up about 2.5 points from earlier in the week.

[Gass3268]

DOOOOOOOOOM

In all seriousness that’s a good poll, but it’s only one poll; and I’m not getting excited unless I see corroboration

G. Elliot Morris' graph of historical data suggests we should be nearing the high point for the White House Party.

Nah, that will be probably in September after Labour Day.

Based on the graph it appears they get a bump there, but not to the extent of the post-Holidays/SOTU bump.

[Gass3268]

NEW POLL: PA-15 (current version)

http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-nws-15th-district-congress-poll-dent-trump-casey-20180208-story,amp.html?__twitter_impression=true

Remember this is a Trump +8 district

Generic D: 38
Generic R: 35

• Casey above water 34-31
  Wolf above water 37-32
  Trump disapproval 56%, approval not given.
  Tax bill above water 42-39
  Dent highly popular.

The voters in this district can't make up their mind on anything besides Trump apparently.

Also it says Trump's approval in the district is 40%.

With this poll, it is pretty safe to say that a compact Leigh Valley district would go Democratic.

[Gass3268]

This is fascinating. The Upshot at the NYT estimates that the impact of court-ordered redistricting in Pa., Va., Florida, and NC, Republican retirements, and Democratic recruitments has added the equivalent of 2 points to the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot. In other words, it's made it easier for Democrats to take control equivalent to 2 points on the generic ballot but in a way that won't show up in the polls.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/12/upshot/big-republican-advantages-are-eroding-in-the-race-for-house-control.html

Funny how the gerrymandering of California and Maryland is ok but NC and VA isn’t.

California wasn’t gerrymandered.

[Gass3268]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb 8-12, 1268 RV

D 43, R 35 (D+8)

Previous poll was D 42, R 37

538 average is up to D+7. I wonder when that Priorities USA poll was taken.

I don’t believe 538 includes internal polls in their average

I actually think the Garin-Hart-Yang / Global Strategy Group D+4 poll is the Priorities USA poll.

[Gass3268]

Wait, so a poll where Trump won the sample by 7% has Republicans up by 1%? This is a good thing for Republicans?

My lord this poll is trash!

[Gass3268]

PPP: D 49/41

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrats-lead-8-points-generic-house-ballot-nationally/

A 3 point swing from the Democratic peak in December, which isn't bad. Democrats lost 2 points, Republicans gained 1.

[Gass3268]

Genertic Ballot Amoung Likley Voters in PA-18:

Republicans 43%
Democrats 40%

Source

[Gass3268]

https://static.texastribune.org/media/documents/ut-tt-2018-02-summary-1.pdf?_ga=2.225578778.1647027925.1519049485-1170111650.1519049485 on page 9/19, GOP leads Generic Congressional Ballot by 3 in Texas.

For reference, in 2016 the GOP won 57-37. Sessions, Hurd, and Culberson are probably f**ked if this is right.

A lot more than just those 3 would be screwed if Republicans only won the House popular vote by 3 points in Texas.

Hmmmn, probably not. All the other districts have been carried by Trump by at least 10 points. Unless the swings are concentrated in some areas.

TX-02 and TX-21 are outside possibilities

[Gass3268]

Quinipiac has D+15. 53 - 38.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2521

*whistles*

Let’s see this corroborated, though.

It does make sense if both Gallup and Rassy are showing a decline for Trump.

[Gass3268]

In regards to those polls:

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