Russian Presidential Election, 2018

[Karpatsky]

While the result of this election is not seriously in contention, I think that the events surrounding the campaign will provide interesting insight into the state of the Russian government. I'm particularly interested in how/if the removal of Zyuganov from the ballot after so many elections will affect (reported) KPRF support, and what the heck is going on with Sobchak's run.

[Former President tack50]

Pavel Grudinin as he seems like the one with the highest chances of getting to the 2nd round (ie 0% but still).

He is still terrible though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yavlinsky.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Easily Alexei Nevalny, a brave fighter for democracy and human rights. All of the other candidates are inviable Putin puppets or just plain madmen.

[kelestian]

It's interesting that communists have got second place in all presidential elections in Russia (1991, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012). Maybe that time Zhirinovsky will beat their candidate

[Karpatsky]

It's interesting that communists have got second place in all presidential elections in Russia (1991, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012). Maybe that time Zhirinovsky will beat their candidate

That did seem to be the case before Zyuganov was replaced, but in every poll that Grudinin has been in he at the very least ties Zhirinovsky - I don't expect a significant change in the status quo there.

It's a shame Levada has been forced to stop putting out their polls because of the foreign agent law - probably the number of available polls is 60% of what it should be as a result.

I didn't put it as an option but frankly I'm interested in where Bakov goes, given his documents have been approved pretty easily - I would not be especially shocked to see him get some media attention and end up with 3-5%.

[kelestian]

Bakov is noname and i'm not sure he will be in the ballot.

in 2016 CPRF and LDPR scored equal results, about 12%, so if Grudinin performs bad in the debates, Zhirinovsky can beat him

[Karpatsky]

Bakov is noname and i'm not sure he will be in the ballot.

in 2016 CPRF and LDPR scored equal results, about 12%, so if Grudinin performs bad in the debates, Zhirinovsky can beat him

Very possibly. That said it seems that there is a trend of LDPR doing better in legislative election than in presidential election; for example in 2011 LDPR took 11% while in 2012 Zhirinovsky took only 6%. Same in 2007, LDPR took almost 12% while Zhirinovsky took only 9%.

[Aboa]

Zhirinovsky also traditionally does better in polls than in elections.

[kelestian]

There will be 8 candidates in the ballot:

Vladimir Putin, independent, current Russian president

Pavel Grudinin, Communist Party, businessman and landlord, former deputy in Moscow Oblast Duma

Vladimir Zhirinovsky, LDPR, long-time politician, populist and nationalist

Grigory Yavlinsky, Yabloko, long-time politician, pro-Western liberal

Ksenia Sobchak, Civil Initiative, journalist and TV-host, daughter of Anatoliy Sobchak - former mayor of Saint Petersburg, who was Putin's boss in 1990-s, pro-Western liberal

Maxim Suraykin, Communists of Russia, some crazy communist       

Sergey Baburin, Russian All-People's Union, former MP, communist and patriotic politician. By the way, he has lost patriotic primaries to Grudinin

Boris Titov, Party of Growth, Presidential Commissioner for Entrepreneurs’ Rights, patriotic liberal


I like Titov - personally, but he will gain less than 1% and is non-serious candidate. From another candidates i thought about Grudinin, but so far he says common communistic bullsh**t - "Stalin was great" etc. So i will vote for Zhirinovsky in a hope that this time CPRF wouldn't be the second finalist.

[Zuza]

This is a surprisingly large and diverse field of candidates, better than I expected and better than ever since 2000: no Zyuganov; 3 liberal (at least, according to their self-identification) candidates (including Kremlin-friendly liberal Titov); Baburin as an alternative national patriotic candidate to traditional Putin, Zhirinovsky and Grudinin.

Although anyone except Putin, Grudinin and Zhirinovsky (and possibly Sobchak or Yavlinsky) will get 1-2 % or less, and these elections won't change anything anyway.

No idea why so many people voted Zhirinovsky in the poll.

[MAINEiac4434]

It is hilarious that the CPRF’s presidential candidate is a bougie businessman.

[kelestian]

Tomskpolit, 07.02, Tomsk Oblast:
Grudinin 39%
Putin 38%
Zhirinovsky 15%
Yavlinsky 4%

Arkhsvoboda, 07.02, Arkhangelsk city:
Putin 25%
Grudinin 24%
Zhirinovsky 8%

Not sure about competence of these pollsters.

[Former President tack50]

Not sure how representative those places are or if the polls are any good, but if Grudinin is seriously tied with Putin then I hope Russia goes to a shocker 2nd round.

[Zuza]

It is hilarious that the CPRF’s presidential candidate is a bougie businessman.

Hilarious, but not surprising, KPRF has always been full of "red oligarchs".

[Zuza]

Tomskpolit, 07.02, Tomsk Oblast:
Grudinin 39%
Putin 38%
Zhirinovsky 15%
Yavlinsky 4%

Arkhsvoboda, 07.02, Arkhangelsk city:
Putin 25%
Grudinin 24%
Zhirinovsky 8%

Not sure about competence of these pollsters.

I'm pretty sure these polls aren't representative. Even Navalny-affiliated FBK gives Putin 60 %, not much different result from pro-government pollsters.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Not sure how representative those places are or if the polls are any good, but if Grudinin is seriously tied with Putin then I hope Russia goes to a shocker 2nd round.

Do you know anything at all about Russia?

[Former President tack50]

Not much I'll admit. But honestly I'd rather have some communist terrible person than Putin if only for the sake of alternance.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Not much I'll admit. But honestly I'd rather have some communist terrible person than Putin if only for the sake of alternance.

>Russia
>alternance

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Not much I'll admit. But honestly I'd rather have some communist terrible person than Putin if only for the sake of alternance.

>Russia
>alternance

But.... They have alternan e, between Putin being officially President and Putin being officially PM, and Putin's handpicked choice in the other role, just like in a real working Democracy

[Sestak]

Please update thread title, as I have, to make it more accurate.

[Karpatsky]

Not sure how representative those places are or if the polls are any good, but if Grudinin is seriously tied with Putin then I hope Russia goes to a shocker 2nd round.

This is only in particular regions.

[Karpatsky]

I like Titov - personally, but he will gain less than 1% and is non-serious candidate. From another candidates i thought about Grudinin, but so far he says common communistic bullsh**t - "Stalin was great" etc. So i will vote for Zhirinovsky in a hope that this time CPRF wouldn't be the second finalist.

Do you think it is possible for a third party to become 'official' opposition like LDPR and CPRF? Ie is it possible for ПР to get 3-6% in the election and continue like so in the future?

[MAINEiac4434]

Please update thread title, as I have, to make it more accurate.

I like mine.

[kelestian]

I like Titov - personally, but he will gain less than 1% and is non-serious candidate. From another candidates i thought about Grudinin, but so far he says common communistic bullsh**t - "Stalin was great" etc. So i will vote for Zhirinovsky in a hope that this time CPRF wouldn't be the second finalist.

Do you think it is possible for a third party to become 'official' opposition like LDPR and CPRF? Ie is it possible for ПР to get 3-6% in the election and continue like so in the future?

What exactly party? Yabloko loses voters with every election, other parties are non-serious. Party of Growth is totally polittechnological project and failure (despite a lot of big names and money), i'm not sure even another, more charismatic leader would help them.

CPRF has stable support and if Udaltsov and Grudinin join CPRF, everything will be good with the party. Interesting thing - what happens with LDPR? 2016 elections were success, but Zhirinovsky is old, and party is more about him.

Also Just Russia is in big trouble, probably will die in next years.