Russian Presidential Election, 2018

[jaichind]

FOM poll

http://fom.ru/Politika/13987

- Putin received support of 64.9% of respondents in March 10-11 poll of 3,000 Russians; FOM says Putin’s projected share of vote in election based on its calculation of likely turnout
- Communist Party candidate Pavel Grudinin seen getting 11%-13%
- LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky may get 7%-9%
- FOM estimates TV host Ksenia Sobchak and Yabloko party co-founderGrigory Yavlinsky to get 1%-2% each
- Boris Titov, of Party of Growth, and Maxim Suraikin, of alternative Communist bloc, to receive less than 1% each

Projects Vladimir Putin seen getting 73%-75% of votes in March 18 presidential election

[jaichind]

Please do not post any "polls" from these "pollsters".

The only more or less independent pollster is the Levada Institute and they got censored or virtually banned a while ago by the Putin forces ...

The other "pollsters" only produce numbers that Putin approves of and show him winning easily.

The election will then be modified by the Putin forces in a way that is in line with these made up polls.

Well, all things equal while one can say Russian elections are skewed in favor of Putin and cronies, that seems to be more about total domination of the media.  There are some remote regions where the governor just manufactures votes but all things equal it seems the most of the Putin vote are mostly honestly cast for him.  Just because the system is rigged does not mean Putin does not enjoy real popular support even if that is exaggerated by the media the an election system which makes it hard for a real alternative to emerge.  In that sense polling in Russia is relevant even if Putin is destined to win by a large margin.

[jaichind]

Eh, yes and no. State control of the the media is serious factor, but there is also evidence of serious vote manipulation, perhaps heavily influencing outcome; eg:

Sure.  I totally agree that in some various ethnic enclaves where the governor is pretty much the local King (like Chechnya, Dagestan,  Ingushetia, Karachay-Cherkessia, Tuva [which I claim as part of China anyway] etc etc) the votes are manufactured for Putin.  But they make up of a fairly small part of the overall Russian Federation vote.  There seems very little doubt in my mind  that even if we take out these manufactured votes for Putin there is still a solid (although reduced) majority for Putin.

[jaichind]

Of course. I stopped to watch major Russian TV channels few years ago. You see Putin, Putin, more Putin, and, rarely, Medvedev on them.... That's, essentially, all. Even good career diplomat Lavrov is now a little more then puppet.

I always liked the annual 4 hour marathon press conference Putin does at the end of the year although in the 2017 one he did not do that well.  I think Putin's polices are bad on the long run (he pretty much wasted the extra wealth Russia got from the commodities boom) but you have to admit that he does a good job selling what he is doing and there is real support for him in Russia.

[jaichind]

I like Titov the most but would tactically vote Putin.

[jaichind]

I like Titov the most but would tactically vote Putin.

What's the point of tactically voting Putin?

I have reasons to dislike all the other non-Titov candidates more than Putin.  Of course Putin does not need my vote.  I am more imagining how I would act if this were a competitive election.

[jaichind]

Putin Wins 73.9% in Presidential Election, Vtsiom Exit Poll:IFX

[jaichind]

ITAR-TASS: Voter turnout at presidential polls in Russia was 63.7% — exit poll

[jaichind]

The main question is -- will Putin get a higher vote share than he did in 2012?

Obviously yes.  Especially after Crimea 2014.  Oh. Just to make sure the Russian voter remembers that election day is the 4 year anniversary of Crimea reunification with Russia.

[jaichind]

I wonder if Putin will break the record set in 2008 by Medvedev who won 52.5 million votes.  It seems it will be very close but turnout has to be at around 64% for Putin to make it.

[jaichind]

Chechnya turnout is "only" 79%.  I would have expected around 95% turnout and around 99% vote for Putin.  It seems Kadyrov is off his game.

[jaichind]

(Interfax) - Cyber attacks on servers of the Russian Elections Commission that according to some data were launched from 15 countries were "on background" and cannot influence the system's work, Russian Communications Minister Nikolai Nikiforov said.
"Indeed, we registered certain attacks. There is an opinion that they were launched from about 15 different countries. They all were on the background," Nikiforov said on the air of Channel 1 television channel.
Cyber attacks were as powerful as 10 gigabits per second, he said.
"In general, the system was ready for this. We are at a very high level of technological development, we have really great experts, and that is why no attacks, not external hackers can influence the system," he said.

[jaichind]

Historically Putin does worst in urban centers like Moscow and Saint Petersburg

[jaichind]

Interfax reports that with 80% of the vote counted Putin has 76.18%, or 40.4 million voters.  If we then do the math then this implies 66.3 million voter voted which means turnout is around 59.8%, a big drop from 2012.

[jaichind]

Chechnya turnout is "only" 79%.  I would have expected around 95% turnout and around 99% vote for Putin.  It seems Kadyrov is off his game.

Maybe he forgot to count all of the people in his concentration camps.

So far Putin support in Chechnya is 89%.  A disastrous showing for Putin.  He should be at least 98% here.

[jaichind]

Looks like this time around Putin's weakest area is the Russian Far East.

[jaichind]

Russia will only see real change once Putin dies.  And unlike average Russian males, I can easily see him living another couple of decades (he's already 65, the age men usually die over there).

Actually Russian life expectancy has surged under Putin.

[jaichind]

So far Putin support in Chechnya is 89%.  A disastrous showing for Putin.  He should be at least 98% here.

Where are you getting regional results?

https://sputniknews.com/russia-elections-2018/201803161062517712-russian-presidential-election/

[jaichind]

Voter turnout is suddenly at 67.00%, a couple points higher than 2012. How about that.

According to

http://www.vybory.izbirkom.ru/region/region/izbirkom?action=show&root=1&tvd=100100084849066&vrn=100100084849062&region=0&global=1&sub_region=0&prver=0&pronetvd=null&vibid=100100084849066&type=226

Putin already has 55.2 million votes.  In which case turnout is likely to be something like 67%

[jaichind]

It seems that Putin 2018 has broken Medvedev 2008 record of 52.5 million votes for the most number of votes in a Russian Federation Presidential election. 

[jaichind]

Gotta love the Tuvans for not being subtle at all. Over 90% turnout and over 90% Putin. There were also a couple federal subjects in the Caucasus that way, but it seems random that Tuva would be that blatant.

Well, Tuva or Tannu Tuva are majority Tuvans which are a branch of Mongols but speak a Turkic language so it its the ethnic enclave pattern.   Of course I do not recognize Tannu Tuva as being part of Russia.  I insists it is Chinese territory which we call 唐努烏梁海 (Tannu Uriankhai) which the Red Russia stole from us back in 1921 creating a puppet independent government before annexing it into USSR back in 1944.

[jaichind]

Gotta love the Tuvans for not being subtle at all. Over 90% turnout and over 90% Putin. There were also a couple federal subjects in the Caucasus that way, but it seems random that Tuva would be that blatant.

Well, Tuva or Tannu Tuva are majority Tuvans which are a branch of Mongols but speak a Turkic language so it its the ethnic enclave pattern.   Of course I do not recognize Tannu Tuva as being part of Russia.  I insists it is Chinese territory which we call 唐努烏梁海 (Tannu Uriankhai) which the Red Russia stole from us back in 1921 creating a puppet independent government before annexing it into USSR back in 1944.

How you feel about Tuva being part of Russia is completely irrelevant to the election, so please keep that to yourself.

Well, the post below which is part of this thread is represents a personal opinion on where Crimea belongs.  Not sure why I cannot weigh in on my view on where Tannu Uriankhai belongs.

Crimea has special place in many Russian's (even - democratically minded) hearts. My mother, for example. She is 91, and she voted for Yavlinsky with me today. But for her Khrushchev is an idiot,  who voluntarily gave Crimea to Ukraine, while it's "proper place" is to be part of Russia. For vast majority (80+%) of Russians it's the same.

[jaichind]

Bad result for the LDPR at least, down around 1% compared to last time. Small consolation I suppose.

Is that not a function of higher turnout ?

[jaichind]

Here's a picture of the ballot. As far as I'm aware, Russia does not have an option for write-in candidates, so everyone voting Navalny on this thread would simply have their ballot not counted, which IMHO is not that effective of a protest. Some other interesting things - Putin has by far and away the shortest resume on the ballot - all it says is "Born in 1952, lives in Moscow, President of the Russian Federation, self-nominated"

Compare that to Suraykin's which reads "Born in 1978, lives in Moscow, political party: "Political Party COMMUNIST PARTY COMMUNISTS OF RUSSIA" Chairman of the Central Committee. Nominated by the political party "Political Party COMMUNIST PARTY COMMUNISTS OF RUSSIA" member of the political party "Political Party COMMUNIST PARTY COMMUNISTS OF RUSSIA" Chairman of the Central Committee of the party."

Holy redundancy Batman!

Putin's write-up reminds me of this guy Grigory Margulis

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grigory_Margulis

Who was a math professor at Yale when I attend there back in the early 1990s.  He is a Fields medal winner.  I was told that his resume when he applied to various USA universities for a position was literally was just a one liner "Grigory Margulis, Moscow State University, Fields Medal 1978".  Yale was lucky to get him.

[jaichind]

Eh, yes and no. State control of the the media is serious factor, but there is also evidence of serious vote manipulation, perhaps heavily influencing outcome; eg:

The same guy, Sergey Shpilkin, has the same analysis for 2018


It is clear that looking at these graphs and compared to 2012 there is decisively less fraud than in 2012.

Dmitry Kobak who came up with analysis for 2011 and 2012 and is generally anti-Putin in his 2012 findings
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1205.0741v2.pdf
Concluded that (https://kobak.livejournal.com/111535.html) turnout was really around 61%-62% and Putin really got  74-75%. 

One way or another it seems Putin won a real landslide majority AND had a strong positive swing from 2012.