Russian Presidential Election, 2018

[kelestian]

It's interesting that communists have got second place in all presidential elections in Russia (1991, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012). Maybe that time Zhirinovsky will beat their candidate

[kelestian]

Bakov is noname and i'm not sure he will be in the ballot.

in 2016 CPRF and LDPR scored equal results, about 12%, so if Grudinin performs bad in the debates, Zhirinovsky can beat him

[kelestian]

There will be 8 candidates in the ballot:

Vladimir Putin, independent, current Russian president

Pavel Grudinin, Communist Party, businessman and landlord, former deputy in Moscow Oblast Duma

Vladimir Zhirinovsky, LDPR, long-time politician, populist and nationalist

Grigory Yavlinsky, Yabloko, long-time politician, pro-Western liberal

Ksenia Sobchak, Civil Initiative, journalist and TV-host, daughter of Anatoliy Sobchak - former mayor of Saint Petersburg, who was Putin's boss in 1990-s, pro-Western liberal

Maxim Suraykin, Communists of Russia, some crazy communist       

Sergey Baburin, Russian All-People's Union, former MP, communist and patriotic politician. By the way, he has lost patriotic primaries to Grudinin

Boris Titov, Party of Growth, Presidential Commissioner for Entrepreneurs’ Rights, patriotic liberal


I like Titov - personally, but he will gain less than 1% and is non-serious candidate. From another candidates i thought about Grudinin, but so far he says common communistic bullsh**t - "Stalin was great" etc. So i will vote for Zhirinovsky in a hope that this time CPRF wouldn't be the second finalist.

[kelestian]

Tomskpolit, 07.02, Tomsk Oblast:
Grudinin 39%
Putin 38%
Zhirinovsky 15%
Yavlinsky 4%

Arkhsvoboda, 07.02, Arkhangelsk city:
Putin 25%
Grudinin 24%
Zhirinovsky 8%

Not sure about competence of these pollsters.

[kelestian]

I like Titov - personally, but he will gain less than 1% and is non-serious candidate. From another candidates i thought about Grudinin, but so far he says common communistic bullsh**t - "Stalin was great" etc. So i will vote for Zhirinovsky in a hope that this time CPRF wouldn't be the second finalist.

Do you think it is possible for a third party to become 'official' opposition like LDPR and CPRF? Ie is it possible for ПР to get 3-6% in the election and continue like so in the future?

What exactly party? Yabloko loses voters with every election, other parties are non-serious. Party of Growth is totally polittechnological project and failure (despite a lot of big names and money), i'm not sure even another, more charismatic leader would help them.

CPRF has stable support and if Udaltsov and Grudinin join CPRF, everything will be good with the party. Interesting thing - what happens with LDPR? 2016 elections were success, but Zhirinovsky is old, and party is more about him.

Also Just Russia is in big trouble, probably will die in next years.

[kelestian]

Russian elections at its best

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sfgdRhx96M

Zhirinovsky quarelled with Baburin during the second debates. Sobchak had tried to teach him good manners, after what Zhirinosky called Ksenia "stupid" and "fool". Next moving was from Sobchak, when she poured water from the glass on him. Finally, Zhirinovsky called Sobchak a "whore".

Incindent is more interesting than it seems: anniversary of Boris Nemtsov's assasination was few days ago. And one of the most famous debates in Russian politics were debates between Nemtsov and Zhirinovsky in 1995, when Zhirinovsky poured glass of juice on his opponent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbifHevHekE

[kelestian]

Please do not post any "polls" from these "pollsters".

The only more or less independent pollster is the Levada Institute and they got censored or virtually banned a while ago by the Putin forces ...

The other "pollsters" only produce numbers that Putin approves of and show him winning easily.

The election will then be modified by the Putin forces in a way that is in line with these made up polls.

I disagree. These pollsters had good record, and previously their results didn't differ from Levada's.
In the last Duma electuons, for example, all polsters predicted turnout about 40%, which seems to be true (later turnout increased to 48% because of falsifications).

[kelestian]

Question for the Russian posters- if Navalny was allowed to be on the ballot this time, what percent of the vote do you think he would've gotten? Would he reach 2nd place?

About 5%, i think. He wouldn't beat Communist candidate, especially Grudinin (Grudinin is quite strong). Navalny's base would be pro-Western liberals + youth, also base of Sobchak and Yavlinsky. He probably would perform well in big cities, maybe about 15-20% in Moscow and St.Petersburg.


By the way, i spoke with relatives and neighbors, for my surprise, they are very exciting about this elections. They don't believe it's just Putin's reelection, i've even heard a very loud argument about who's better - Putin or Grudinin.

[kelestian]

I don't know how to vote (and what tell my mother, usually she votes as i've told her). Voting for Zhirinovsky in the age of MeToo doesn't look good, Grudinin is nice, but i hate commies and his praising of Stalin was awful... Maybe Titov, at least i wouldn't be ashamed later.

[kelestian]

Question for the Russian posters- if Navalny was allowed to be on the ballot this time, what percent of the vote do you think he would've gotten? Would he reach 2nd place?

About 10% i think. Theoretically, his populist base could give him even 20, but - not with present set of candidates..

I wonder then, why didn't Putin allow him to run? Wouldn't he be able to spin it as a victory for him, like "traitor Navalny doesn't have the support of true Russians" or something like that?

Hypothetically even something like Putin 60%; Navalny 20%; everyone else 20% would probably be seen like a victory and would avoid a runoff

As you know, elections usually are rigged in dozen of Russian regions. So Navalny wouldn't concede (if i remember correctly, he didn't concede in 2013 mayoral election), so he would start protest campaign, raised Putin's illegitimacy question with foreign government etc.

[kelestian]

Wow, a lot of people at my polling station (Moscow). All 35+.

[kelestian]

Question for the Russian posters: who did you vote for?

Me: Ttitov. Father: Putin. Mother: Baburin. Grandad: Grudinin.

[kelestian]

Russia had some democracy from 1917 through the 20s.

Only 1917, abot 10 months between two revolutions.