Russian Presidential Election, 2018

[Karpatsky]

While the result of this election is not seriously in contention, I think that the events surrounding the campaign will provide interesting insight into the state of the Russian government. I'm particularly interested in how/if the removal of Zyuganov from the ballot after so many elections will affect (reported) KPRF support, and what the heck is going on with Sobchak's run.

[Karpatsky]

It's interesting that communists have got second place in all presidential elections in Russia (1991, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012). Maybe that time Zhirinovsky will beat their candidate

That did seem to be the case before Zyuganov was replaced, but in every poll that Grudinin has been in he at the very least ties Zhirinovsky - I don't expect a significant change in the status quo there.

It's a shame Levada has been forced to stop putting out their polls because of the foreign agent law - probably the number of available polls is 60% of what it should be as a result.

I didn't put it as an option but frankly I'm interested in where Bakov goes, given his documents have been approved pretty easily - I would not be especially shocked to see him get some media attention and end up with 3-5%.

[Karpatsky]

Bakov is noname and i'm not sure he will be in the ballot.

in 2016 CPRF and LDPR scored equal results, about 12%, so if Grudinin performs bad in the debates, Zhirinovsky can beat him

Very possibly. That said it seems that there is a trend of LDPR doing better in legislative election than in presidential election; for example in 2011 LDPR took 11% while in 2012 Zhirinovsky took only 6%. Same in 2007, LDPR took almost 12% while Zhirinovsky took only 9%.

[Karpatsky]

Not sure how representative those places are or if the polls are any good, but if Grudinin is seriously tied with Putin then I hope Russia goes to a shocker 2nd round.

This is only in particular regions.

[Karpatsky]

I like Titov - personally, but he will gain less than 1% and is non-serious candidate. From another candidates i thought about Grudinin, but so far he says common communistic bullsh**t - "Stalin was great" etc. So i will vote for Zhirinovsky in a hope that this time CPRF wouldn't be the second finalist.

Do you think it is possible for a third party to become 'official' opposition like LDPR and CPRF? Ie is it possible for ПР to get 3-6% in the election and continue like so in the future?

[Karpatsky]

Please do not post any "polls" from these "pollsters".

The only more or less independent pollster is the Levada Institute and they got censored or virtually banned a while ago by the Putin forces ...

The other "pollsters" only produce numbers that Putin approves of and show him winning easily.

The election will then be modified by the Putin forces in a way that is in line with these made up polls.

Agree in principle, but ironically they still do pretty well what polls are supposed to do: predict elections and act as a benchmark. Obviously there's no point in watching this election as if the outcome isn't sure, but despite everything it's important if Putin gets 65% or 75% of the vote, and for this the polls, fake as they may be, are significant to some extent.

[Karpatsky]

Please do not post any "polls" from these "pollsters".

The only more or less independent pollster is the Levada Institute and they got censored or virtually banned a while ago by the Putin forces ...

The other "pollsters" only produce numbers that Putin approves of and show him winning easily.

The election will then be modified by the Putin forces in a way that is in line with these made up polls.

Well, all things equal while one can say Russian elections are skewed in favor of Putin and cronies, that seems to be more about total domination of the media.  There are some remote regions where the governor just manufactures votes but all things equal it seems the most of the Putin vote are mostly honestly cast for him.  Just because the system is rigged does not mean Putin does not enjoy real popular support even if that is exaggerated by the media the an election system which makes it hard for a real alternative to emerge.  In that sense polling in Russia is relevant even if Putin is destined to win by a large margin.

Eh, yes and no. State control of the the media is serious factor, but there is also evidence of serious vote manipulation, perhaps heavily influencing outcome; eg:

[Karpatsky]

Еще шесть лет Президент Путин

If his health allows... Yesterday i was at Yavlinsky headquaters in Moscow, and was unplesantly surprised by extremely bad level of organization...
[/quote

Well, what reason does he have to try hard, really.

[Karpatsky]

I like Titov the most but would tactically vote Putin.

What's the point of tactically voting Putin?

[Karpatsky]

Turnout looks like it's going to be down in general from 2012, though not by much. A defeat, if minor, for EP.

[Karpatsky]

Here's a surprisingly great map and results page in English! If anyone is interested

https://sputniknews.com/russia-elections-2018/201803161062517712-russian-presidential-election/

Looking at the regional results, thus far the best and worst place for each candidate seems to be:

Of course this is mostly academic because of vote rigging and the like. Also not sure if there are any sort of regional patterns. Seems like Putin performed best in the ethnic republics (rigged elections). Not sure about the others.

That is a great results page. Shame to waste so much effort on such an election.

[Karpatsky]

Bad result for the LDPR at least, down around 1% compared to last time. Small consolation I suppose.

Is that not a function of higher turnout ?

Yes. His vote number is almost the same.

[Karpatsky]

Gotta love the Tuvans for not being subtle at all. Over 90% turnout and over 90% Putin. There were also a couple federal subjects in the Caucasus that way, but it seems random that Tuva would be that blatant.

Well, Tuva or Tannu Tuva are majority Tuvans which are a branch of Mongols but speak a Turkic language so it its the ethnic enclave pattern.   Of course I do not recognize Tannu Tuva as being part of Russia.  I insists it is Chinese territory which we call 唐努烏梁海 (Tannu Uriankhai) which the Red Russia stole from us back in 1921 creating a puppet independent government before annexing it into USSR back in 1944.

Do you consider Mongolia also Chinese territory?

You mean Outer Mongolia.  Yes. Of course.  Here is the ROC map.


Which for me is phase I.  Long term goal should be Chinese borders of 1820.  This is my computer desktop wallpaper

Wow wtf.

This is why Russia keeps so many tactical nuclear weapons.

[Karpatsky]

Gotta love the Tuvans for not being subtle at all. Over 90% turnout and over 90% Putin. There were also a couple federal subjects in the Caucasus that way, but it seems random that Tuva would be that blatant.

Well, Tuva or Tannu Tuva are majority Tuvans which are a branch of Mongols but speak a Turkic language so it its the ethnic enclave pattern.   Of course I do not recognize Tannu Tuva as being part of Russia.  I insists it is Chinese territory which we call 唐努烏梁海 (Tannu Uriankhai) which the Red Russia stole from us back in 1921 creating a puppet independent government before annexing it into USSR back in 1944.

Do you consider Mongolia also Chinese territory?

You mean Outer Mongolia.  Yes. Of course.  Here is the ROC map.

Which for me is phase I.  Long term goal should be Chinese borders of 1820.  This is my computer desktop wallpaper

----------------------------

Putin did open the door, so he has little reason to complain when China lays claim once again to its Qing Dynasty borders. 

Classic whataboutism. If you want to construct a civilized international system, you can't open the door of eye-for-an-eye punishment - otherwise next you'll be telling me why Korean claims on Manchuria are justified by Chinese land-grabbing in Primorsk.

[Karpatsky]

Yes, i willingly participate, and WILL participate. As long as there is even slight possibility to show, that "sane people" exist in Russia - i will do it. BTW, most countries you mentioned as "making considerable progress to democracy rather quickly" had relatively long democratic periods at some moments in their history. Unlike Russia, which NEVER had such periods (except 1991-1999, to most extent). I told many times that historically Russian tradition is extremely conservative. The same can be said about main church, which increased it's influence since period of Communist rule,  army (important institute in Russia), and so on. So, again - IT WILL TAKE CONSIDERABLE TIME for democracy even to take more or less solid roots in Russia, as there is almost no basis for it in Russian society. The process will be slow, difficult and with considerble setbacks...

Well, that makes you a collaborator, part and parcel of the regime. Of course, in no way does it demonstrate your sanity: to most people this looks like greater insanity than that of the true putinists (they do not pretend that somehow their objective is a democracy in Russia: so, they, are, at least, coherent) . So you manifestly fail on your self-declared objective. Participation in this takes Russia away from actual democracy, not towards it. I am not arguing against opposition to the regime, for god's sake: it is just that what you are doing is collaboration.

As for relatively long periods of democracy pre-1980s in, say, Spain or Mexico... I know, I know, they do not teach foreign history in Russian schools properly, really, you are not to blame. Russia is a lot less unique than you believe: it is no worse, really, than the rest of the world And, if it is to get a democracy at some point, it will not get it in some unique Russian way.

Russia is not 100% authoritarian state like Nazi Germany - voting can occasionally have some effect. Navalny's close run for the Moscow major seat seriously scared the regime, and in some city opposition candidates have actually won - Yaroslavl, Yekaterinburg, as examples. I would probably agree that in this race to abstain is the more politically correct option, but it is not necessarily as bad as you say.