Russian Presidential Election, 2018

[smoltchanov]

^. It's not an election, it's a farce with predetermined result. As much as i may be critical of some elections in the West, Russian elections (except brief period of 1989-1995 approximately) were always "something"....

[smoltchanov]

Eh, yes and no. State control of the the media is serious factor, but there is also evidence of serious vote manipulation, perhaps heavily influencing outcome; eg:

Sure.  I totally agree that in some various ethnic enclaves where the governor is pretty much the local King (like Chechnya, Dagestan,  Ingushetia, Karachay-Cherkessia, Tuva [which I claim as part of China anyway] etc etc) the votes are manufactured for Putin.  But they make up of a fairly small part of the overall Russian Federation vote.  There seems very little doubt in my mind  that even if we take out these manufactured votes for Putin there is still a solid (although reduced) majority for Putin.

Of course. I stopped to watch major Russian TV channels few years ago. You see Putin, Putin, more Putin, and, rarely, Medvedev on them.... That's, essentially, all. Even good career diplomat Lavrov is now a little more then puppet.

[smoltchanov]

Of course. I stopped to watch major Russian TV channels few years ago. You see Putin, Putin, more Putin, and, rarely, Medvedev on them.... That's, essentially, all. Even good career diplomat Lavrov is now a little more then puppet.

I always liked the annual 4 hour marathon press conference Putin does at the end of the year although in the 2017 one he did not do that well.  I think Putin's polices are bad on the long run (he pretty much wasted the extra wealth Russia got from the commodities boom) but you have to admit that he does a good job selling what he is doing and there is real support for him in Russia.

Of course. When you destroyed all potential opponents during previous almost 20 years, and managed to arrive to situation, when even your opponents have difficulties - whom to vote for (because there is no one in sight, literally), when you are on all mass-media at any time and for any time interval you like, when you manged to arose many's "hyperpatriotic" feeleings to the level of hysteria (as it was with "Crimea is ours!"), and thus - force them to forget about economic hardships, "soft" political isolation, and so on - you will win the election handily! I am more surprised, that there are still 15-20% of Russian people, who are consistently anti-Putin (not all of them are Western-type democrats), then by his percentages in Russian polls. German leader in 1930's had even higher one, despite all German long (substantially longer, then in Russia) political tradition, and perceived pragmatism of Germans.  Put a lot of consistent propaganda on TV and in people's mind daily for 10 years, and 75% of population will be "your loyal soldiers". We see that in China, in Russia, and even in Hungary and some other "democratic countries".. Nothing unusual. And nothing new...

[smoltchanov]

Еще шесть лет Президент Путин

If his health allows... Yesterday i was at Yavlinsky headquaters in Moscow, and was unplesantly surprised by extremely bad level of organization...

[smoltchanov]

Еще шесть лет Президент Путин

If his health allows... Yesterday i was at Yavlinsky headquaters in Moscow, and was unplesantly surprised by extremely bad level of organization...
[/quote

Well, what reason does he have to try hard, really.

Still - good organization is a precondition for being good candidate.

[smoltchanov]

Question for the Russian posters- if Navalny was allowed to be on the ballot this time, what percent of the vote do you think he would've gotten? Would he reach 2nd place?

About 10% i think. Theoretically, his populist base could give him even 20, but - not with present set of candidates..

[smoltchanov]

I will go for Yavlinsky, despite, obviously, 7 out of 8 candidates having exactly zero chances of victory...

[smoltchanov]

Question for the Russian posters- if Navalny was allowed to be on the ballot this time, what percent of the vote do you think he would've gotten? Would he reach 2nd place?

About 10% i think. Theoretically, his populist base could give him even 20, but - not with present set of candidates..

I wonder then, why didn't Putin allow him to run? Wouldn't he be able to spin it as a victory for him, like "traitor Navalny doesn't have the support of true Russians" or something like that?

Hypothetically even something like Putin 60%; Navalny 20%; everyone else 20% would probably be seen like a victory and would avoid a runoff

Would I be Putin - i would do exactly that. But he and his team, probably, prefer to reduce already minimal risk to identical zero. Besides - Navalny as official candidate would get more TV access, would ask unpleasant questions, which would require some reaction and explanations on Putin's part, and so on. Present "power that be" are not too concerned about Western reaction on "quality" of Russian elections, and feel no need to get "a nod of approval" from it. Even if West will call election "utter farce" (which is true)  - it's fine with them. And, if so - what for do they need to create even similarity of "honest elections", if they can preserve their power in more rough, but more easy way?

[smoltchanov]

putin is hillary of russia - all media, all bureaucracy, everything is on his side, only difference is that americans are more intelligent and can see through that and also many russians are still on government tit

Americans are no more intelligent, then Russians (i think there are arguments for opposite point of view), but American political tradition (generally - democratic) is much stronger and long-lasting, then Russian one..

[smoltchanov]

The main question is -- will Putin get a higher vote share than he did in 2012?

Obviously yes.  Especially after Crimea 2014.  Oh. Just to make sure the Russian voter remembers that election day is the 4 year anniversary of Crimea reunification with Russia.

Crimea has special place in many Russian's (even - democratically minded) hearts. My mother, for example. She is 91, and she voted for Yavlinsky with me today. But for her Khrushchev is an idiot,  who voluntarily gave Crimea to Ukraine, while it's "proper place" is to be part of Russia. For vast majority (80+%) of Russians it's the same.

[smoltchanov]

Question for the Russian posters: who did you vote for?

Yavlinsky. Though i understood fairly well, that everything was much more predetermined, then in 2012, when Prokhorov was rather serious candidate (especially - in capitals)

[smoltchanov]

Gotta love the Tuvans for not being subtle at all. Over 90% turnout and over 90% Putin. There were also a couple federal subjects in the Caucasus that way, but it seems random that Tuva would be that blatant.

For Tuva is's absolutely normal. As well as for some other similar areas...

[smoltchanov]

Question for the Russian posters: who did you vote for?

Me: Ttitov. Father: Putin. Mother: Baburin. Grandad: Grudinin.

You have very "patriotic" family.....

[smoltchanov]

Question for the Russian posters: who did you vote for?

Yavlinsky. Though i understood fairly well, that everything was much more predetermined, then in 2012, when Prokhorov was rather serious candidate (especially - in capitals)

Just a question: why did you participate in this? What was the purpose?

Why not? Mainly to show that despite all propaganda on TV and other mass media, people who think and choose himlelf, and not as herd's part, still exist in Russia. And even in considerable numbers. After all - 77% for Putin, was lower then his support rating from such reasonably objective source as Levada center. Guys, i repeat 1000th time: you can't evaluate a country, where, until 1991, there wasn't even corrupted democracy, by standard "democratic criteria". It takes time. I will not live long enough to see "normal Democracy" in Russia (may be - only the very beginning), but my 16 year old son most likely will... Even if he stays here..

[smoltchanov]

Question for the Russian posters: who did you vote for?

Yavlinsky. Though i understood fairly well, that everything was much more predetermined, then in 2012, when Prokhorov was rather serious candidate (especially - in capitals)

Just a question: why did you participate in this? What was the purpose?

Why not? Mainly to show that despite all propaganda on TV and other mass media, people who think and choose himlelf, and not as herd's part, still exist in Russia. And even in considerable numbers. After all - 77% for Putin, was lower then his support rating from such reasonably objective source as Levada center. Guys, i repeat 1000th time: you can't evaluate a country, where, until 1991, there wasn't even corrupted democracy, by standard "democratic criteria". It takes time. I will not live long enough to see "normal Democracy" in Russia (may be - only the very beginning), but my 16 year old son most likely will... Even if he stays here..

Why participate in a farce? There is no such thing as electoral politics in Russia, period. The only way one can participate in this without looking ridiculous is in a classic dissident manner: "Respect your own Constitution!" By all means, register as a candidate, as an observer, organise and participate in meetings, monitor what is going on, etc. It may be painful and dangerous - if you feel you do not want to do it, do not (I myself am a coward, I would not). But why vote for or otherwise deal with candidates, who explicitly got an approval for their candidacy in the presidential administration? What does this achieve, except create an impression that this profanation of an election is the norm?  How on earth is it bringing a democracy any closer. You are not making it more likely that your son would see actual democracy in Russia by participating in this farce: arguably, you are actually postponing that point, by increasing the regime stability.

As for "until 1991", this is simply ridiculous at this point. 1991 was 27 years ago - I remember, I was there. Dozens of countries have had reasonably successful democratic transitions since. I mean, Spain had not had anything like democracy till 1975 - there was no doubt that it had one long before 2002. Ditto Portugal (with a near-successful communist revolution tossed in to make transition more fun). Mexican democratic transition was barely starting in 1991 - it has had 2 electoral transitions between parties at the national presidential level since. At this point it is becoming like the old canard about the Mongol invasion: yes, it was horrible, but it was 800 years ago. Even Mongolia, BTW, has done a lot better on the democracy count since 1991 - and they are the Mongols. The fact is, Russia is not moving towards a democracy - has not been moving in that direction in some 20 years. Sustenance of fake institutions takes her away from this objective, not towards it.

I am not blaming Russia or Russians in general - that would be ridiculous. But by participating in this farce you are strengthening the regime. "Ah, he only got 72.12345 percent, and if you sum up all our nice guys we had 3.1415! You know what this means?! These are millions of people! May be, next time, if we are very nice, they would allow us another political party and approve a Duma member or two: imagine what speeches they would make on the floor! The people will wake up, when they hear Dunya Petrova explaining everything!" Look, I trust Dunya is a fine person, but all the people will learn if they see her on the floor of the Duma is that she has some good friends in the Kremlin and that, perhaps, if they get friends like this, they might get a Duma sinecure themselves. Conclusion: be good and you will be rewarded. It is not the TV propaganda that is the problem: it is the overall corruption of the public space. Well, you willingly participate in it yourself.

Yes, i willingly participate, and WILL participate. As long as there is even slight possibility to show, that "sane people" exist in Russia - i will do it. BTW, most countries you mentioned as "making considerable progress to democracy rather quickly" had relatively long democratic periods at some moments in their history. Unlike Russia, which NEVER had such periods (except 1991-1999, to most extent). I told many times that historically Russian tradition is extremely conservative. The same can be said about main church, which increased it's influence since period of Communist rule,  army (important institute in Russia), and so on. So, again - IT WILL TAKE CONSIDERABLE TIME for democracy even to take more or less solid roots in Russia, as there is almost no basis for it in Russian society. The process will be slow, difficult and with considerble setbacks...