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February 22, 2020, 10:05:52 pm
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  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: The Chad Pygmy Marmosets, Apocrypha)
  No Ross Perot Candidacy In 1992
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Author Topic: No Ross Perot Candidacy In 1992  (Read 8142 times)
Galactic Overlord
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« Reply #25 on: November 24, 2005, 10:59:42 pm »

One thing I don't understand is how Perot helped Clinton to win Georgia and Montana, but not even Florida?!  Maybe I'm just looking at this from a 'now' perspective, but it certainly seems weird that a key swing state stayed for Bush, while two very safe Republican states switched over.

Georgia was still very much in touch with its "yellow dog" roots in many areas at the time. Only the suburbs around Atlanta were reliably Republican.  Clinton's southern appeal was strong enough with voters, coupled with Perot on the ballot, to narrowly win the state.  Perot also siphoned off a big chunk of voters in Montana.  Also, Montana was not even a strong state for Bush 41 to begin with.  It only went for him 52%-46% in 1988, defintely not the big wins that his son had there.
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Yates
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« Reply #26 on: November 24, 2005, 11:09:56 pm »

I believe that Clinton would have won very narrowly.  It seems that he would have won the popular vote by about 3%, and the electoral vote by about 50 electoral votes.
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Jake
dubya2004
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« Reply #27 on: November 25, 2005, 05:01:28 am »

It was based more on the math...I just added Perot's results and Bush's together.

Which was the least likely outcome of any possible in this scenario. Exit polling in the states I've looked at indicates that if Perot voters went to the polls, the majority where prepared to swing (barely) to Clinton. Bush would need a considerable majority (60-40 or better) of Perot voters to get close. He wouldn't even be able to break 50% in all likelihood.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #28 on: November 25, 2005, 09:40:12 am »

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