WV-03: Williams out

[Babeuf]

Putting this here because it's the most recent WV-03 thread I saw, but Ojeda has become the legislative champion of the striking WV teachers atm.

Seems like a notable development in this race.

[LimoLiberal]

Putting this here because it's the most recent WV-03 thread I saw, but Ojeda has become the legislative champion of the striking WV teachers atm.

Seems like a notable development in this race.

Holy hell, you're right. He got 41K views on his Facebook live! https://www.facebook.com/Ojedaforcongress/

Gonna have massive support among the teachers come November.

[LimoLiberal]

Someone needs to get him some fundraising. He can seriously put this seat into play.

[Ebsy]

Ojeda is very high energy.

[YE]

Someone needs to get him some fundraising. He can seriously put this seat into play.

You don't need too much cash to run in WV-03 tbh but I hope he's seeking Our Revolution/PCCC endorsement. I don't think Bernie will endorse him due to fear of backlash since he supported Trump in 2016 because apparently anyone who supports Trump is automatically bad and the Democrats shouldn't appeal to Trump voters that in the past have been open to the right Democrat.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Someone needs to get him some fundraising. He can seriously put this seat into play.

You don't need too much cash to run in WV-03 tbh but I hope he's seeking Our Revolution/PCCC endorsement. I don't think Bernie will endorse him due to fear of backlash since he supported Trump in 2016 because apparently anyone who supports Trump is automatically bad and the Democrats shouldn't appeal to Trump voters that in the past have been open to the right Democrat.

This is almost certainly getting him frozen out of most/all national money, tbh. And he's at war with the Manchin network, so he's likely to get any in state money as well.

Which sucks, because:

Ojeda is very high energy.

[I’m not Stu]

Someone needs to get him some fundraising. He can seriously put this seat into play.

You don't need too much cash to run in WV-03 tbh but I hope he's seeking Our Revolution/PCCC endorsement. I don't think Bernie will endorse him due to fear of backlash since he supported Trump in 2016 because apparently anyone who supports Trump is automatically bad and the Democrats shouldn't appeal to Trump voters that in the past have been open to the right Democrat.

An Our Revolution endorsement would hurt Ojeda in a very red state like West Virginia.

[YE]

Someone needs to get him some fundraising. He can seriously put this seat into play.

You don't need too much cash to run in WV-03 tbh but I hope he's seeking Our Revolution/PCCC endorsement. I don't think Bernie will endorse him due to fear of backlash since he supported Trump in 2016 because apparently anyone who supports Trump is automatically bad and the Democrats shouldn't appeal to Trump voters that in the past have been open to the right Democrat.

An Our Revolution endorsement would hurt Ojeda in a very red state like West Virginia.

WV isn't a very partisan state so I doubt it. Ojeda's best shot is the GOP takes this race for granted, and is caught off guard. I'd rate this as Lean R.

[Badger]

Please remember when discussing 2016 numbers that Ojeda is, at last report, not Hillary Clinton. That is all.

[MT Treasurer]

Ojeda could win this year, but he’ll almost certainly lose his seat in 2020 and a Democratic victory here means that they’ve already won the House, so it’s obvious why this seat isn’t one of their top priorities.

[Badger]

Ojeda could win this year, but he’ll almost certainly lose his seat in 2020 and a Democratic victory here means that they’ve already won the House, so it’s obvious why this seat isn’t one of their top priorities.

A decent chance that would happen, but never underestimate the power of incumbency in West Virginia combined with traditional democratic voting, even for federal races. Exhibit a Joe manchin

[Indy Texas]

Ojeda could win this year, but he’ll almost certainly lose his seat in 2020 and a Democratic victory here means that they’ve already won the House, so it’s obvious why this seat isn’t one of their top priorities.

A decent chance that would happen, but never underestimate the power of incumbency in West Virginia combined with traditional democratic voting, even for federal races. Exhibit a Joe manchin

But West Virginia is going to be down to two congressional districts for the 2022 election and the GOP-controlled legislature will almost certainly decide to draw the map to protect the two Republican members.

[Dr. MB]

If Ojeda wins, I think he’ll run for Senate if Manchin retires (very likely I think) in 2024. Still Lean R, though.

[YE]

Honestly Ojeda should go for Capito's seat in 2020 before he gets drawn out.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Ojeda could win this year, but he’ll almost certainly lose his seat in 2020 and a Democratic victory here means that they’ve already won the House, so it’s obvious why this seat isn’t one of their top priorities.

A decent chance that would happen, but never underestimate the power of incumbency in West Virginia combined with traditional democratic voting, even for federal races. Exhibit a Joe manchin

But West Virginia is going to be down to two congressional districts for the 2022 election and the GOP-controlled legislature will almost certainly decide to draw the map to protect the two Republican members.

Not if the Democratic Party of West Virginia can reform itself to legislative dominance and create a New Deal for this far-too-forsaken state.

A new pipe dream of mine is to have the coal barons out of their dominance in West Virginia, and have a huge Democratic wave of folks not aligned with the old WV Dem regime come into power in WV. We are clearly seeing that coal is not going to come back to WV, but WV is constantly conned into believing the jobs will come back. There must be a new plan for the state. A new direction. A New Hope.

I assume we could shoot off some stuff into space from flat mountaintops, after all. And isn't Jim Justice rotund enough to be a space station?

But people are stubborn. No space exploration for WV 

[YE]

Ojeda could win this year, but he’ll almost certainly lose his seat in 2020 and a Democratic victory here means that they’ve already won the House, so it’s obvious why this seat isn’t one of their top priorities.

A decent chance that would happen, but never underestimate the power of incumbency in West Virginia combined with traditional democratic voting, even for federal races. Exhibit a Joe manchin

But West Virginia is going to be down to two congressional districts for the 2022 election and the GOP-controlled legislature will almost certainly decide to draw the map to protect the two Republican members.

Not if the Democratic Party of West Virginia can reform itself to legislative dominance and create a New Deal for this far-too-forsaken state.

A new pipe dream of mine is to have the coal barons out of their dominance in West Virginia, and have a huge Democratic wave of folks not aligned with the old WV Dem regime come into power in WV. We are clearly seeing that coal is not going to come back to WV, but WV is constantly conned into believing the jobs will come back. There must be a new plan for the state. A new direction. A New Hope.

I assume we could shoot off some stuff into space from flat mountaintops, after all. And isn't Jim Justice rotund enough to be a space station?

But people are stubborn. No space exploration for WV 

I mean this some chance of that happening, at least according to one person who did a well-thought out and realistic timeline on here]. I don't fully agree with the idea that the South goes Democrat, especially the white working class south for what it's worth but it's a great read regardless.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Ojeda could win this year, but he’ll almost certainly lose his seat in 2020 and a Democratic victory here means that they’ve already won the House, so it’s obvious why this seat isn’t one of their top priorities.

A decent chance that would happen, but never underestimate the power of incumbency in West Virginia combined with traditional democratic voting, even for federal races. Exhibit a Joe manchin

But West Virginia is going to be down to two congressional districts for the 2022 election and the GOP-controlled legislature will almost certainly decide to draw the map to protect the two Republican members.

Not if the Democratic Party of West Virginia can reform itself to legislative dominance and create a New Deal for this far-too-forsaken state.

A new pipe dream of mine is to have the coal barons out of their dominance in West Virginia, and have a huge Democratic wave of folks not aligned with the old WV Dem regime come into power in WV. We are clearly seeing that coal is not going to come back to WV, but WV is constantly conned into believing the jobs will come back. There must be a new plan for the state. A new direction. A New Hope.

I assume we could shoot off some stuff into space from flat mountaintops, after all. And isn't Jim Justice rotund enough to be a space station?

But people are stubborn. No space exploration for WV 

I mean this some chance of that happening, at least according to one person who did a well-thought out and realistic timeline on here]. I don't fully agree with the idea that the South goes Democrat, especially the white working class south for what it's worth but it's a great read regardless.

Only in dreams
We see what it means
Reach out our hands
Hold on to [coal's]
But when we [run out of effective coal jobs]
[Prosperity's] all been erased
And so it [seems some guy on an Internet forum has suddenly wished to create a NASA base in WV for no other reason for no other reason than that he unintentionally wrote "a new hope" in the post referring to wishing for happy days to be here again for WV]
[Unfortunately, this act can only happen] in [dreams where we write out wishful timelines, and then grovel about the current state of politics]

 

[DINGO Joe]

WV is filled with desperate people who are desperate.  Ojeda has as good of a chance of harnassing that desperation as anyone.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Ojeda is going to lose because this District has a PVI of R+23. Too steep for any Democrat to overcome whatsoever (unless they were an incumbent who started when the seat was not so heavily favorable to the other party)

[Doimper]

Honestly Ojeda should go for Capito's seat in 2020 before he gets drawn out.

[McGovernForPrez]

Ojeda is going to lose because this District has a PVI of R+23. Too steep for any Democrat to overcome whatsoever (unless they were an incumbent who started when the seat was not so heavily favorable to the other party)

In 2016 WV scored an R+22 in PVI calculation simultaneously as Jim Justice, a non-incumbent, won his bid for Governor as a Democrat by a very comfortable margin. The same year Ojeda won his R+31 State Senate district with 58% of the vote. He's a great fit for the district and in certain cases you can't judge a district solely by it's PVI.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Ojeda is going to lose because this District has a PVI of R+23. Too steep for any Democrat to overcome whatsoever (unless they were an incumbent who started when the seat was not so heavily favorable to the other party)

In 2016 WV scored an R+22 in PVI calculation simultaneously as Jim Justice, a non-incumbent, won his bid for Governor as a Democrat by a very comfortable margin. The same year Ojeda won his R+31 State Senate district with 58% of the vote. He's a great fit for the district and in certain cases you can't judge a district solely by it's PVI.

But Justice was the king of the DINOs

[McGovernForPrez]

Ojeda is going to lose because this District has a PVI of R+23. Too steep for any Democrat to overcome whatsoever (unless they were an incumbent who started when the seat was not so heavily favorable to the other party)

In 2016 WV scored an R+22 in PVI calculation simultaneously as Jim Justice, a non-incumbent, won his bid for Governor as a Democrat by a very comfortable margin. The same year Ojeda won his R+31 State Senate district with 58% of the vote. He's a great fit for the district and in certain cases you can't judge a district solely by it's PVI.

But Justice was the king of the DINOs

Point is he ran as a Democrat. While WV does have a strong partisan lean on the presidential level, the parties there aren't that strong in general.  People in southern West Virginia especially, are more likely to vote Democrat down ballot then a lot of other places. This district is gonna be Joe Manchin's best district in 2018 for that matter. In a 10% win statewide, I could see Manchin winning this district by like 15 points. If there are that many voters willing to support Joe Manchin then I don't think it's unreasonable to imagine Ojeda having a shot in this district, especially given how strong a candidate he is.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Ojeda is going to lose because this District has a PVI of R+23. Too steep for any Democrat to overcome whatsoever (unless they were an incumbent who started when the seat was not so heavily favorable to the other party)

In 2016 WV scored an R+22 in PVI calculation simultaneously as Jim Justice, a non-incumbent, won his bid for Governor as a Democrat by a very comfortable margin. The same year Ojeda won his R+31 State Senate district with 58% of the vote. He's a great fit for the district and in certain cases you can't judge a district solely by it's PVI.

But Justice was the king of the DINOs

Point is he ran as a Democrat. While WV does have a strong partisan lean on the presidential level, the parties there aren't that strong in general.  People in southern West Virginia especially, are more likely to vote Democrat down ballot then a lot of other places. This district is gonna be Joe Manchin's best district in 2018 for that matter. In a 10% win statewide, I could see Manchin winning this district by like 15 points. If there are that many voters willing to support Joe Manchin then I don't think it's unreasonable to imagine Ojeda having a shot in this district, especially given how strong a candidate he is.

Which incidentally is one of the reasons that Manchin should suck it up and send some money Ojeda’s way. Hav No a strong congressional campaign in this district will only benefit him.

[Canis]

Ojeda is going to lose because this District has a PVI of R+23. Too steep for any Democrat to overcome whatsoever (unless they were an incumbent who started when the seat was not so heavily favorable to the other party)

In 2016 WV scored an R+22 in PVI calculation simultaneously as Jim Justice, a non-incumbent, won his bid for Governor as a Democrat by a very comfortable margin. The same year Ojeda won his R+31 State Senate district with 58% of the vote. He's a great fit for the district and in certain cases you can't judge a district solely by it's PVI.

But Justice was the king of the DINOs

Manchin is going to be winning WV-03 by 10 points at least this year also Perdue won the state treasures race by a wider margin than justice and didn't switch parties