WV-03: Williams out

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ojeda is going to lose because this District has a PVI of R+23. Too steep for any Democrat to overcome whatsoever (unless they were an incumbent who started when the seat was not so heavily favorable to the other party)

In 2016 WV scored an R+22 in PVI calculation simultaneously as Jim Justice, a non-incumbent, won his bid for Governor as a Democrat by a very comfortable margin. The same year Ojeda won his R+31 State Senate district with 58% of the vote. He's a great fit for the district and in certain cases you can't judge a district solely by it's PVI.

But Justice was the king of the DINOs

Point is he ran as a Democrat. While WV does have a strong partisan lean on the presidential level, the parties there aren't that strong in general.  People in southern West Virginia especially, are more likely to vote Democrat down ballot then a lot of other places. This district is gonna be Joe Manchin's best district in 2018 for that matter. In a 10% win statewide, I could see Manchin winning this district by like 15 points. If there are that many voters willing to support Joe Manchin then I don't think it's unreasonable to imagine Ojeda having a shot in this district, especially given how strong a candidate he is.

Which incidentally is one of the reasons that Manchin should suck it up and send some money Ojeda’s way. Hav No a strong congressional campaign in this district will only benefit him.

[OneJ]

Ojeda is going to lose because this District has a PVI of R+23. Too steep for any Democrat to overcome whatsoever (unless they were an incumbent who started when the seat was not so heavily favorable to the other party)

In 2016 WV scored an R+22 in PVI calculation simultaneously as Jim Justice, a non-incumbent, won his bid for Governor as a Democrat by a very comfortable margin. The same year Ojeda won his R+31 State Senate district with 58% of the vote. He's a great fit for the district and in certain cases you can't judge a district solely by it's PVI.

But Justice was the king of the DINOs

Point is he ran as a Democrat. While WV does have a strong partisan lean on the presidential level, the parties there aren't that strong in general.  People in southern West Virginia especially, are more likely to vote Democrat down ballot then a lot of other places. This district is gonna be Joe Manchin's best district in 2018 for that matter. In a 10% win statewide, I could see Manchin winning this district by like 15 points. If there are that many voters willing to support Joe Manchin then I don't think it's unreasonable to imagine Ojeda having a shot in this district, especially given how strong a candidate he is.

Which incidentally is one of the reasons that Manchin should suck it up and send some money Ojeda’s way. Hav No a strong congressional campaign in this district will only benefit him.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys, the Guardian did a story on Ojeda, and they said that Ojeda's internal polling shows him having a double digit lead on his most likely GE opponents, granted, most voters are still undecided. Despite this, they were still very vague in their description of the polling offering no numbers or names. Here is the article anyways, it is rather interesting:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/27/could-this-military-guy-democrat-find-a-magic-formula-to-win-back-blue-collar-voters

GO OJEDA! Sappers clear the way, Airborne all the way!

Ps. call me crazy, but I think this race might actually be Lean D with Ojeda at the helm and Jenkins off.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Ojeda is going to lose because this District has a PVI of R+23. Too steep for any Democrat to overcome whatsoever (unless they were an incumbent who started when the seat was not so heavily favorable to the other party)

In 2016 WV scored an R+22 in PVI calculation simultaneously as Jim Justice, a non-incumbent, won his bid for Governor as a Democrat by a very comfortable margin. The same year Ojeda won his R+31 State Senate district with 58% of the vote. He's a great fit for the district and in certain cases you can't judge a district solely by it's PVI.

But Justice was the king of the DINOs

Point is he ran as a Democrat. While WV does have a strong partisan lean on the presidential level, the parties there aren't that strong in general.  People in southern West Virginia especially, are more likely to vote Democrat down ballot then a lot of other places. This district is gonna be Joe Manchin's best district in 2018 for that matter. In a 10% win statewide, I could see Manchin winning this district by like 15 points. If there are that many voters willing to support Joe Manchin then I don't think it's unreasonable to imagine Ojeda having a shot in this district, especially given how strong a candidate he is.

Which incidentally is one of the reasons that Manchin should suck it up and send some money Ojeda’s way. Hav No a strong congressional campaign in this district will only benefit him.

No way. Manchin should not be throwing money away at pointless stuff like that.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ojeda is going to lose because this District has a PVI of R+23. Too steep for any Democrat to overcome whatsoever (unless they were an incumbent who started when the seat was not so heavily favorable to the other party)

In 2016 WV scored an R+22 in PVI calculation simultaneously as Jim Justice, a non-incumbent, won his bid for Governor as a Democrat by a very comfortable margin. The same year Ojeda won his R+31 State Senate district with 58% of the vote. He's a great fit for the district and in certain cases you can't judge a district solely by it's PVI.

But Justice was the king of the DINOs

Point is he ran as a Democrat. While WV does have a strong partisan lean on the presidential level, the parties there aren't that strong in general.  People in southern West Virginia especially, are more likely to vote Democrat down ballot then a lot of other places. This district is gonna be Joe Manchin's best district in 2018 for that matter. In a 10% win statewide, I could see Manchin winning this district by like 15 points. If there are that many voters willing to support Joe Manchin then I don't think it's unreasonable to imagine Ojeda having a shot in this district, especially given how strong a candidate he is.

Which incidentally is one of the reasons that Manchin should suck it up and send some money Ojeda’s way. Hav No a strong congressional campaign in this district will only benefit him.

No way. Manchin should not be throwing money away at pointless stuff like that.

Manchin has millions and millions of bucks. Directly contributing a couple grand to Ojeda's campaign could go a long way.  

Kind of like Flake writing a $100 check to Jones.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Ojeda is going to lose because this District has a PVI of R+23. Too steep for any Democrat to overcome whatsoever (unless they were an incumbent who started when the seat was not so heavily favorable to the other party)

In 2016 WV scored an R+22 in PVI calculation simultaneously as Jim Justice, a non-incumbent, won his bid for Governor as a Democrat by a very comfortable margin. The same year Ojeda won his R+31 State Senate district with 58% of the vote. He's a great fit for the district and in certain cases you can't judge a district solely by it's PVI.

But Justice was the king of the DINOs

Point is he ran as a Democrat. While WV does have a strong partisan lean on the presidential level, the parties there aren't that strong in general.  People in southern West Virginia especially, are more likely to vote Democrat down ballot then a lot of other places. This district is gonna be Joe Manchin's best district in 2018 for that matter. In a 10% win statewide, I could see Manchin winning this district by like 15 points. If there are that many voters willing to support Joe Manchin then I don't think it's unreasonable to imagine Ojeda having a shot in this district, especially given how strong a candidate he is.

Which incidentally is one of the reasons that Manchin should suck it up and send some money Ojeda’s way. Hav No a strong congressional campaign in this district will only benefit him.

No way. Manchin should not be throwing money away at pointless stuff like that.

I’m not sure you understand how 1) fundraising works or 2) how the downticket boosts top of ticket turnout.

[Ebsy]

Of note: Ojeda was a big backer of the successful strike by the teachers unions.

[Bidenworth2020]

Of note: Ojeda was a big backer of the successful strike by the teachers unions.

how will this effect him?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Of note: Ojeda was a big backer of the successful strike by the teachers unions.

how will this effect him?

It is definitely a good thing, he is a champion for the working class.

[McGovernForPrez]

Of note: Ojeda was a big backer of the successful strike by the teachers unions.

how will this effect him?

It is definitely a good thing, he is a champion for the working class.

Yeah it's given him some very positive publicity. Both sides of the aisle hate Justice, and Ojeda has been attacking him a lot over this.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Democrats picking up any R+20 (or higher) District is less likely than Democrats making a triple digit total net gain in the House, in the 2018 elections.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Democrats picking up any R+20 (or higher) District is less likely than Democrats making a triple digit total net gain in the House, in the 2018 elections.

Apparently now all districts completely conform to national cook pvi ratings on all levels at all the time, barring a Mooreing.

[McGovernForPrez]

Democrats picking up any R+20 (or higher) District is less likely than Democrats making a triple digit total net gain in the House, in the 2018 elections.

Richard's district in 2016 was an R+30 district and he won it after primarying out the incumbent Democrat and beating the Republican candidate by 16 points. He's got a very large social media following now, most of those being West Virgians, judging by the comments on his facebook live streams. Ojeda is an all star candidate and I think that he can easily win this district, especially if those internals have any truth to them.

[Adam Griffin]

It's not like this district was represented by a Democrat until January 2015 or anything

[McGovernForPrez]

It's not like this district was represented by a Democrat until January 2015 or anything

Ojeda got 35% of the Democratic primary vote against Nick Rahall that year when he was basically running as a nobody. Ojeda is a rising star in West Virginia politics, and this is his chance to prove it.

[MAINEiac4434]

Excellent piece on Ojeda here: https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/03/02/richard-ojeda-west-virginia-blue-army-one-217217

[McGovernForPrez]

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Interesting quote from the article. Looks like Ojeda is really doing well for himself. His name recognition has got to be much higher than any of his Republican opponents.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This race is lean D by my standards now.

[Pollster]

If the quote regarding internal polling is correct, Ojeda will certainly be eyed by the party for a long future. He could run for Senate very quickly.

[Skill and Chance]

If the quote regarding internal polling is correct, Ojeda will certainly be eyed by the party for a long future. He could run for Senate very quickly.

Thing is, it's really not in Ojeda's best interest to remain a Dem in WV if his career takes off.  If he wants statewide office, his best bet is to run as an independent and hope someone very green gets the Dem endorsement and someone very wealthy with weak connections to the state gets the GOP endorsement.

He's going to drive national Dems nuts for however long he's associated with them.

[Canis]

Ojeda if he does win should challenge Justice in 2020 hes the perfect candidate for it

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Ojeda if he does win should challenge Justice in 2020 hes the perfect candidate for it

Only if we want a second in a row Democratic governor defecting to the GOP in their 1st year.

[Torrain]

Ojeda if he does win should challenge Justice in 2020 hes the perfect candidate for it

Only if we want a second in a row Democratic governor defecting to the GOP in their 1st year.

This. The guy may be pro-union, but his pro-Trump statements and anti-Manchin vendetta makes me nervous. If he wins a House seat, pat him on the back and let him be. (Although he may be the most viable Moore Capito challenger come 2020.)

[YE]

Why the f**k would Ojeda switch parties? The guy probably joins the CPC if he wins this year.

[_]

Why the f**k would Ojeda switch parties? The guy probably joins the CPC if he wins this year.