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  1994 - 1999
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Author Topic: 1994 - 1999  (Read 750 times)
mathstatman
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« on: January 23, 2018, 01:33:52 pm »

In 1994, the suicide rate among US males aged 15-24 reached an all-time high of 23.4 per 100,000 population-- even as the rate among women was nearing an all-time low. At the same time, the US homicide rate, while slightly down from its peaks in 1980 and 1991, was still very high.

Then, from 1994 to 1999, both indices of social pathology dropped sharply: the suicide rate among US males 15-24 dropped to 16.9; it would later bottom out at 15.9 in 2007 before rising again (it is back up to 20.5 as of 2016).  Similarly, the US homicide rate (disregarding the 9/11 attacks) would continue to slowly decline, though it has increased somewhat in the last couple of years.

What caused these sharp drops from 1994-1999? Was it Clinton? Gingrich? Both? Neither? Other? If anything, any expected panic as Year 2000 approached seemed to have the opposite of the expected effect.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2018, 01:58:06 pm »

The crack epidemic came and went. Maybe increased use of medication decreased the suicide rate, and then the recession reversed that.
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Hydera
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« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2018, 02:38:01 pm »

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mathstatman
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« Reply #3 on: January 24, 2018, 06:07:47 pm »

That explains a lot. Earlier suicide peaks in 1977 and 1986 also trailed the peak in unemployment by a couple of years.

Still, the 1994-1999 drop was pretty sharp. Changing demographics? (due to the 1970s "baby bust") Greater acceptance of homosexuality?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2018, 01:38:51 am »

In 1994, the suicide rate among US males aged 15-24 reached an all-time high of 23.4 per 100,000 population-- even as the rate among women was nearing an all-time low. At the same time, the US homicide rate, while slightly down from its peaks in 1980 and 1991, was still very high.

Then, from 1994 to 1999, both indices of social pathology dropped sharply: the suicide rate among US males 15-24 dropped to 16.9; it would later bottom out at 15.9 in 2007 before rising again (it is back up to 20.5 as of 2016).  Similarly, the US homicide rate (disregarding the 9/11 attacks) would continue to slowly decline, though it has increased somewhat in the last couple of years.

What caused these sharp drops from 1994-1999? Was it Clinton? Gingrich? Both? Neither? Other? If anything, any expected panic as Year 2000 approached seemed to have the opposite of the expected effect.

You are likely choosing too precise effects of years.

15-19 suicide rates

This shows an increase from 1970s through the late 80s, and then a plateau, and then a drop. It also shows an increase from 2007 on, which is similar to that from 1977 on. Are we going to see a repeat of the early 1990s from 2020 onward? Your claim of an all-time low for females appears suspect, at least for teenagers. The rate for females a parallel growth pattern, though at a lower rate, but rather than a plateau had begun  decline which continued beyond 1994.

Was the earlier increase due to accelerated aging in which 15 and 16 YO were acting more like adults and less like children? What were difference in drug and alcohol use. Was there a delayed effect due to the increase in the drinking age. Someone who was drinking at age 18 is unlikely to stop drinking when it was suddenly illegal, and neither would their 16 and 17 YO friends. But over time, drinkers would tend to age out. Was there effect of the aging in of an age cohort.

Presumably, a 16 YO in 1995 was more likely to commit suicide than a 15 YO in 1994, even if lower than 16 YO in 1994. Was there an effect on children of having grown up in the Reagan era, that saw them more optimistic about the future as teenagers?
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mathstatman
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« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2018, 10:15:48 am »
« Edited: January 27, 2018, 10:17:21 am by mathstatman »

In 1994, the suicide rate among US males aged 15-24 reached an all-time high of 23.4 per 100,000 population-- even as the rate among women was nearing an all-time low. At the same time, the US homicide rate, while slightly down from its peaks in 1980 and 1991, was still very high.

Then, from 1994 to 1999, both indices of social pathology dropped sharply: the suicide rate among US males 15-24 dropped to 16.9; it would later bottom out at 15.9 in 2007 before rising again (it is back up to 20.5 as of 2016).  Similarly, the US homicide rate (disregarding the 9/11 attacks) would continue to slowly decline, though it has increased somewhat in the last couple of years.

What caused these sharp drops from 1994-1999? Was it Clinton? Gingrich? Both? Neither? Other? If anything, any expected panic as Year 2000 approached seemed to have the opposite of the expected effect.

You are likely choosing too precise effects of years.

15-19 suicide rates

This shows an increase from 1970s through the late 80s, and then a plateau, and then a drop. It also shows an increase from 2007 on, which is similar to that from 1977 on. Are we going to see a repeat of the early 1990s from 2020 onward? Your claim of an all-time low for females appears suspect, at least for teenagers. The rate for females a parallel growth pattern, though at a lower rate, but rather than a plateau had begun  decline which continued beyond 1994.

Was the earlier increase due to accelerated aging in which 15 and 16 YO were acting more like adults and less like children? What were difference in drug and alcohol use. Was there a delayed effect due to the increase in the drinking age. Someone who was drinking at age 18 is unlikely to stop drinking when it was suddenly illegal, and neither would their 16 and 17 YO friends. But over time, drinkers would tend to age out. Was there effect of the aging in of an age cohort.

Presumably, a 16 YO in 1995 was more likely to commit suicide than a 15 YO in 1994, even if lower than 16 YO in 1994. Was there an effect on children of having grown up in the Reagan era, that saw them more optimistic about the future as teenagers?
In 1994 the rate for females 15-24 was 3.7 per 100k-- tied for lowest since 1968. It would bottom out at 2.9 in 2001-2002, creep up to 3.2 by 2007, then rise rapidly, reaching 5.4 in 2016 (highest in nearly a century, if not ever). The rate for females overall was 4.5-- down from the peak of 6.7 in 1971-72 and near the all-time low of 4.0 in 2000.

Perhaps the Brady bill affected suicides (as well as homicides)? THe majority of US suicides are committed by firearm.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2018, 11:33:26 am »

In 1994, the suicide rate among US males aged 15-24 reached an all-time high of 23.4 per 100,000 population-- even as the rate among women was nearing an all-time low. At the same time, the US homicide rate, while slightly down from its peaks in 1980 and 1991, was still very high.

Then, from 1994 to 1999, both indices of social pathology dropped sharply: the suicide rate among US males 15-24 dropped to 16.9; it would later bottom out at 15.9 in 2007 before rising again (it is back up to 20.5 as of 2016).  Similarly, the US homicide rate (disregarding the 9/11 attacks) would continue to slowly decline, though it has increased somewhat in the last couple of years.

What caused these sharp drops from 1994-1999? Was it Clinton? Gingrich? Both? Neither? Other? If anything, any expected panic as Year 2000 approached seemed to have the opposite of the expected effect.

You are likely choosing too precise effects of years.

15-19 suicide rates

This shows an increase from 1970s through the late 80s, and then a plateau, and then a drop. It also shows an increase from 2007 on, which is similar to that from 1977 on. Are we going to see a repeat of the early 1990s from 2020 onward? Your claim of an all-time low for females appears suspect, at least for teenagers. The rate for females a parallel growth pattern, though at a lower rate, but rather than a plateau had begun  decline which continued beyond 1994.

Was the earlier increase due to accelerated aging in which 15 and 16 YO were acting more like adults and less like children? What were difference in drug and alcohol use. Was there a delayed effect due to the increase in the drinking age. Someone who was drinking at age 18 is unlikely to stop drinking when it was suddenly illegal, and neither would their 16 and 17 YO friends. But over time, drinkers would tend to age out. Was there effect of the aging in of an age cohort.

Presumably, a 16 YO in 1995 was more likely to commit suicide than a 15 YO in 1994, even if lower than 16 YO in 1994. Was there an effect on children of having grown up in the Reagan era, that saw them more optimistic about the future as teenagers?
In 1994 the rate for females 15-24 was 3.7 per 100k-- tied for lowest since 1968. It would bottom out at 2.9 in 2001-2002, creep up to 3.2 by 2007, then rise rapidly, reaching 5.4 in 2016 (highest in nearly a century, if not ever). The rate for females overall was 4.5-- down from the peak of 6.7 in 1971-72 and near the all-time low of 4.0 in 2000.

Perhaps the Brady bill affected suicides (as well as homicides)? THe majority of US suicides are committed by firearm.
What is your data source?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #7 on: January 27, 2018, 03:49:52 pm »

In 1994, the suicide rate among US males aged 15-24 reached an all-time high of 23.4 per 100,000 population-- even as the rate among women was nearing an all-time low. At the same time, the US homicide rate, while slightly down from its peaks in 1980 and 1991, was still very high.

Then, from 1994 to 1999, both indices of social pathology dropped sharply: the suicide rate among US males 15-24 dropped to 16.9; it would later bottom out at 15.9 in 2007 before rising again (it is back up to 20.5 as of 2016).  Similarly, the US homicide rate (disregarding the 9/11 attacks) would continue to slowly decline, though it has increased somewhat in the last couple of years.

What caused these sharp drops from 1994-1999? Was it Clinton? Gingrich? Both? Neither? Other? If anything, any expected panic as Year 2000 approached seemed to have the opposite of the expected effect.

You are likely choosing too precise effects of years.

15-19 suicide rates

This shows an increase from 1970s through the late 80s, and then a plateau, and then a drop. It also shows an increase from 2007 on, which is similar to that from 1977 on. Are we going to see a repeat of the early 1990s from 2020 onward? Your claim of an all-time low for females appears suspect, at least for teenagers. The rate for females a parallel growth pattern, though at a lower rate, but rather than a plateau had begun  decline which continued beyond 1994.

Was the earlier increase due to accelerated aging in which 15 and 16 YO were acting more like adults and less like children? What were difference in drug and alcohol use. Was there a delayed effect due to the increase in the drinking age. Someone who was drinking at age 18 is unlikely to stop drinking when it was suddenly illegal, and neither would their 16 and 17 YO friends. But over time, drinkers would tend to age out. Was there effect of the aging in of an age cohort.

Presumably, a 16 YO in 1995 was more likely to commit suicide than a 15 YO in 1994, even if lower than 16 YO in 1994. Was there an effect on children of having grown up in the Reagan era, that saw them more optimistic about the future as teenagers?
In 1994 the rate for females 15-24 was 3.7 per 100k-- tied for lowest since 1968. It would bottom out at 2.9 in 2001-2002, creep up to 3.2 by 2007, then rise rapidly, reaching 5.4 in 2016 (highest in nearly a century, if not ever). The rate for females overall was 4.5-- down from the peak of 6.7 in 1971-72 and near the all-time low of 4.0 in 2000.

Perhaps the Brady bill affected suicides (as well as homicides)? THe majority of US suicides are committed by firearm.
"Hey Pops, I want to shoot myself, but the man down at the gun store said I had to be 21"
"Gee son, I'd like to help you shoot yourself, but that felony armed robbery conviction back when you were a baby means I can't buy a handgun."
"You were in prison?"
"Yep, 5 to 10 for robbing a diaper supply truck."
"So that's why all those other men were visiting. They were pretty cool, they'd say 'go play in the street, kid'"

I did find a study that said that the Brady Bill may have reduced suicides in males over 50.
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mathstatman
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« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2018, 02:10:38 pm »

In 1994, the suicide rate among US males aged 15-24 reached an all-time high of 23.4 per 100,000 population-- even as the rate among women was nearing an all-time low. At the same time, the US homicide rate, while slightly down from its peaks in 1980 and 1991, was still very high.

Then, from 1994 to 1999, both indices of social pathology dropped sharply: the suicide rate among US males 15-24 dropped to 16.9; it would later bottom out at 15.9 in 2007 before rising again (it is back up to 20.5 as of 2016).  Similarly, the US homicide rate (disregarding the 9/11 attacks) would continue to slowly decline, though it has increased somewhat in the last couple of years.

What caused these sharp drops from 1994-1999? Was it Clinton? Gingrich? Both? Neither? Other? If anything, any expected panic as Year 2000 approached seemed to have the opposite of the expected effect.

You are likely choosing too precise effects of years.

15-19 suicide rates

This shows an increase from 1970s through the late 80s, and then a plateau, and then a drop. It also shows an increase from 2007 on, which is similar to that from 1977 on. Are we going to see a repeat of the early 1990s from 2020 onward? Your claim of an all-time low for females appears suspect, at least for teenagers. The rate for females a parallel growth pattern, though at a lower rate, but rather than a plateau had begun  decline which continued beyond 1994.

Was the earlier increase due to accelerated aging in which 15 and 16 YO were acting more like adults and less like children? What were difference in drug and alcohol use. Was there a delayed effect due to the increase in the drinking age. Someone who was drinking at age 18 is unlikely to stop drinking when it was suddenly illegal, and neither would their 16 and 17 YO friends. But over time, drinkers would tend to age out. Was there effect of the aging in of an age cohort.

Presumably, a 16 YO in 1995 was more likely to commit suicide than a 15 YO in 1994, even if lower than 16 YO in 1994. Was there an effect on children of having grown up in the Reagan era, that saw them more optimistic about the future as teenagers?
In 1994 the rate for females 15-24 was 3.7 per 100k-- tied for lowest since 1968. It would bottom out at 2.9 in 2001-2002, creep up to 3.2 by 2007, then rise rapidly, reaching 5.4 in 2016 (highest in nearly a century, if not ever). The rate for females overall was 4.5-- down from the peak of 6.7 in 1971-72 and near the all-time low of 4.0 in 2000.

Perhaps the Brady bill affected suicides (as well as homicides)? THe majority of US suicides are committed by firearm.
What is your data source?
The National Center for Health Statistics, an arm of the CDC.

For more than 40 years, about 60% of male and 40% of US suicides are committed by firearm.

My comment on the effect of the Brady Bill was pure speculation.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #9 on: January 28, 2018, 10:04:39 pm »

In 1994, the suicide rate among US males aged 15-24 reached an all-time high of 23.4 per 100,000 population-- even as the rate among women was nearing an all-time low. At the same time, the US homicide rate, while slightly down from its peaks in 1980 and 1991, was still very high.

Then, from 1994 to 1999, both indices of social pathology dropped sharply: the suicide rate among US males 15-24 dropped to 16.9; it would later bottom out at 15.9 in 2007 before rising again (it is back up to 20.5 as of 2016).  Similarly, the US homicide rate (disregarding the 9/11 attacks) would continue to slowly decline, though it has increased somewhat in the last couple of years.

What caused these sharp drops from 1994-1999? Was it Clinton? Gingrich? Both? Neither? Other? If anything, any expected panic as Year 2000 approached seemed to have the opposite of the expected effect.

You are likely choosing too precise effects of years.

15-19 suicide rates

This shows an increase from 1970s through the late 80s, and then a plateau, and then a drop. It also shows an increase from 2007 on, which is similar to that from 1977 on. Are we going to see a repeat of the early 1990s from 2020 onward? Your claim of an all-time low for females appears suspect, at least for teenagers. The rate for females a parallel growth pattern, though at a lower rate, but rather than a plateau had begun  decline which continued beyond 1994.

Was the earlier increase due to accelerated aging in which 15 and 16 YO were acting more like adults and less like children? What were difference in drug and alcohol use. Was there a delayed effect due to the increase in the drinking age. Someone who was drinking at age 18 is unlikely to stop drinking when it was suddenly illegal, and neither would their 16 and 17 YO friends. But over time, drinkers would tend to age out. Was there effect of the aging in of an age cohort.

Presumably, a 16 YO in 1995 was more likely to commit suicide than a 15 YO in 1994, even if lower than 16 YO in 1994. Was there an effect on children of having grown up in the Reagan era, that saw them more optimistic about the future as teenagers?
In 1994 the rate for females 15-24 was 3.7 per 100k-- tied for lowest since 1968. It would bottom out at 2.9 in 2001-2002, creep up to 3.2 by 2007, then rise rapidly, reaching 5.4 in 2016 (highest in nearly a century, if not ever). The rate for females overall was 4.5-- down from the peak of 6.7 in 1971-72 and near the all-time low of 4.0 in 2000.

Perhaps the Brady bill affected suicides (as well as homicides)? THe majority of US suicides are committed by firearm.
What is your data source?
The National Center for Health Statistics, an arm of the CDC.

For more than 40 years, about 60% of male and 40% of US suicides are committed by firearm.

My comment on the effect of the Brady Bill was pure speculation.
I showed you a chart of 15-19 suicide rates. Do you have something similar to support your conclusions? Are you restricted from putting the data that you collected from NCHS in tabular or graphical form?

I'm sure you are aware that the number of Americans born each year changes over time, such that composition of the 15-24 YO group changes. You probably are aware that the suicide rate for those 20-24 is significantly higher than that for those 15-19, so that the rate for the 15-24 YO can vary based on composition of the population.

Since it is illegal for someone under 21 to purchase a handgun, and was so long before the Brady Bill, it would not make sense that it would have an immediate effect on suicide rates when most of those in the age group could not buy a gun in first place.
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