1994 - 1999

[SingingAnalyst]

In 1994, the suicide rate among US males aged 15-24 reached an all-time high of 23.4 per 100,000 population-- even as the rate among women was nearing an all-time low. At the same time, the US homicide rate, while slightly down from its peaks in 1980 and 1991, was still very high.

Then, from 1994 to 1999, both indices of social pathology dropped sharply: the suicide rate among US males 15-24 dropped to 16.9; it would later bottom out at 15.9 in 2007 before rising again (it is back up to 20.5 as of 2016).  Similarly, the US homicide rate (disregarding the 9/11 attacks) would continue to slowly decline, though it has increased somewhat in the last couple of years.

What caused these sharp drops from 1994-1999? Was it Clinton? Gingrich? Both? Neither? Other? If anything, any expected panic as Year 2000 approached seemed to have the opposite of the expected effect.

[SingingAnalyst]

That explains a lot. Earlier suicide peaks in 1977 and 1986 also trailed the peak in unemployment by a couple of years.

Still, the 1994-1999 drop was pretty sharp. Changing demographics? (due to the 1970s "baby bust") Greater acceptance of homosexuality?

[SingingAnalyst]

In 1994, the suicide rate among US males aged 15-24 reached an all-time high of 23.4 per 100,000 population-- even as the rate among women was nearing an all-time low. At the same time, the US homicide rate, while slightly down from its peaks in 1980 and 1991, was still very high.

Then, from 1994 to 1999, both indices of social pathology dropped sharply: the suicide rate among US males 15-24 dropped to 16.9; it would later bottom out at 15.9 in 2007 before rising again (it is back up to 20.5 as of 2016).  Similarly, the US homicide rate (disregarding the 9/11 attacks) would continue to slowly decline, though it has increased somewhat in the last couple of years.

What caused these sharp drops from 1994-1999? Was it Clinton? Gingrich? Both? Neither? Other? If anything, any expected panic as Year 2000 approached seemed to have the opposite of the expected effect.

You are likely choosing too precise effects of years.

15-19 suicide rates

This shows an increase from 1970s through the late 80s, and then a plateau, and then a drop. It also shows an increase from 2007 on, which is similar to that from 1977 on. Are we going to see a repeat of the early 1990s from 2020 onward? Your claim of an all-time low for females appears suspect, at least for teenagers. The rate for females a parallel growth pattern, though at a lower rate, but rather than a plateau had begun  decline which continued beyond 1994.

Was the earlier increase due to accelerated aging in which 15 and 16 YO were acting more like adults and less like children? What were difference in drug and alcohol use. Was there a delayed effect due to the increase in the drinking age. Someone who was drinking at age 18 is unlikely to stop drinking when it was suddenly illegal, and neither would their 16 and 17 YO friends. But over time, drinkers would tend to age out. Was there effect of the aging in of an age cohort.

Presumably, a 16 YO in 1995 was more likely to commit suicide than a 15 YO in 1994, even if lower than 16 YO in 1994. Was there an effect on children of having grown up in the Reagan era, that saw them more optimistic about the future as teenagers?

In 1994 the rate for females 15-24 was 3.7 per 100k-- tied for lowest since 1968. It would bottom out at 2.9 in 2001-2002, creep up to 3.2 by 2007, then rise rapidly, reaching 5.4 in 2016 (highest in nearly a century, if not ever). The rate for females overall was 4.5-- down from the peak of 6.7 in 1971-72 and near the all-time low of 4.0 in 2000.

Perhaps the Brady bill affected suicides (as well as homicides)? THe majority of US suicides are committed by firearm.

[SingingAnalyst]

In 1994, the suicide rate among US males aged 15-24 reached an all-time high of 23.4 per 100,000 population-- even as the rate among women was nearing an all-time low. At the same time, the US homicide rate, while slightly down from its peaks in 1980 and 1991, was still very high.

Then, from 1994 to 1999, both indices of social pathology dropped sharply: the suicide rate among US males 15-24 dropped to 16.9; it would later bottom out at 15.9 in 2007 before rising again (it is back up to 20.5 as of 2016).  Similarly, the US homicide rate (disregarding the 9/11 attacks) would continue to slowly decline, though it has increased somewhat in the last couple of years.

What caused these sharp drops from 1994-1999? Was it Clinton? Gingrich? Both? Neither? Other? If anything, any expected panic as Year 2000 approached seemed to have the opposite of the expected effect.

You are likely choosing too precise effects of years.

15-19 suicide rates

This shows an increase from 1970s through the late 80s, and then a plateau, and then a drop. It also shows an increase from 2007 on, which is similar to that from 1977 on. Are we going to see a repeat of the early 1990s from 2020 onward? Your claim of an all-time low for females appears suspect, at least for teenagers. The rate for females a parallel growth pattern, though at a lower rate, but rather than a plateau had begun  decline which continued beyond 1994.

Was the earlier increase due to accelerated aging in which 15 and 16 YO were acting more like adults and less like children? What were difference in drug and alcohol use. Was there a delayed effect due to the increase in the drinking age. Someone who was drinking at age 18 is unlikely to stop drinking when it was suddenly illegal, and neither would their 16 and 17 YO friends. But over time, drinkers would tend to age out. Was there effect of the aging in of an age cohort.

Presumably, a 16 YO in 1995 was more likely to commit suicide than a 15 YO in 1994, even if lower than 16 YO in 1994. Was there an effect on children of having grown up in the Reagan era, that saw them more optimistic about the future as teenagers?

In 1994 the rate for females 15-24 was 3.7 per 100k-- tied for lowest since 1968. It would bottom out at 2.9 in 2001-2002, creep up to 3.2 by 2007, then rise rapidly, reaching 5.4 in 2016 (highest in nearly a century, if not ever). The rate for females overall was 4.5-- down from the peak of 6.7 in 1971-72 and near the all-time low of 4.0 in 2000.

Perhaps the Brady bill affected suicides (as well as homicides)? THe majority of US suicides are committed by firearm.

What is your data source?

The National Center for Health Statistics, an arm of the CDC.

For more than 40 years, about 60% of male and 40% of US suicides are committed by firearm.

My comment on the effect of the Brady Bill was pure speculation.