Which leaders will not survive 2017?

[parochial boy]

Kind of surprised by that sort of thinking. This isn't Canada, it's the UK. Safe seats are much, much safer in the UK.

My point was that, while big swings are possible in a by-election, they are precisely much less likely in a general one; which is why Theresa May's seat is pretty solidly safe.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, exactly. The sort of people who only vote in General Elections, btw, are disproportionately likely to vote only Labour or Tory. Or swing between the two, obviously. Loads of those, though not in Berkshire!

[America Needs R'hllor]

It now looks as though Benjamin Netanyahu should be added to the list of leaders very likely not to survive 2017. The corruption investigations against him seem to bring out such solid evidence, that no indictment would mean that we can say goodbye to Israel's democratic justice system.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In fairness, if the Grand Coalition goes on forever, sooner or later Germans will get tired of it. Certainly not in 2017 and probably not in 2021, but it's bound to happen if the Social Democrats don't have the sense to leave before it's too late.

[Tender Branson]

Kern, Sobotka, English and Mugabe have not survived 2017.

Did I miss anyone ?

[mileslunn]

We should start one for 2018.  I would also add Trump since although impeachment is unlikely its not guaranteed never mind by 71 and obese also increases his risk of a heart attack.  May and Merkel definitely are in much shakier positions than a year ago.  Also Malcolm Turnbull if the election happens this year is vulnerable.  In the US there are number of vulnerable governors while in Canada of the three premiers facing election, possibly four if the BC government falls all of them are vulnerable to some degree.  Wynne will likely lose, Couillard is in a tough position, while Gallant is probably the safest but far from secure.  Also possible another premier could resign, but barring a major scandal I don't see that happening as none of them are long serving ones unlike Brad Wall who just recently announced his retirement from politics.  I would also add Kim Jong Un, since despite the fact he looks safe, there is always the risk some of the more senior members could take him out if he is seen as too much of a problem.  He doesn't command near the loyalty his Grandfather or even his father had.

[Lord Halifax]

Kern, Sobotka, English and Mugabe have not survived 2017.

Did I miss anyone ?

Jammeh

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Not on the list, but technically speaking Polish PM did not survive 2017, even though the PM is basically a figurehead now, serving at Kaczyński's pleasure.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

- Mugabe will die

For him being deposed probably feels like death.

[Stranger in a strange land]

We should start one for 2018.  I would also add Trump since although impeachment is unlikely its not guaranteed never mind by 71 and obese also increases his risk of a heart attack.  May and Merkel definitely are in much shakier positions than a year ago.  Also Malcolm Turnbull if the election happens this year is vulnerable.  In the US there are number of vulnerable governors while in Canada of the three premiers facing election, possibly four if the BC government falls all of them are vulnerable to some degree.  Wynne will likely lose, Couillard is in a tough position, while Gallant is probably the safest but far from secure.  Also possible another premier could resign, but barring a major scandal I don't see that happening as none of them are long serving ones unlike Brad Wall who just recently announced his retirement from politics.  I would also add Kim Jong Un, since despite the fact he looks safe, there is always the risk some of the more senior members could take him out if he is seen as too much of a problem.  He doesn't command near the loyalty his Grandfather or even his father had.

This may be true, but he's been in power for 7 years at this point and he's purged nearly everybody and replaced them with his own people.