Survey USA Poll CA (Primary): Newsom (D) 19%, Villaraigosa (D) 10%, Allen (R) 9%

[Coastal Elitist]

Latest Poll for the Governor's race has Newsom leading but with low numbers against a huge field of candidates. Almost a third of respondents were still undecided with the majority being Republican or Independent. It looks like this race has a long ways to go.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=04104c60-a299-4ed4-87a4-f9f25ff81e7d&c=37

[Canis]

Chiang being at 5 and Eastin at 1 doesn't look good also Allen is doing really really well

[I’m not Stu]

Is Villaraigosa falling behind in the polls?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Funny, Atlas told me this was bound to be D vs. D. Maybe California Democrats should stop counting their chickens before they hatch. Yes, Newsom would crush Allen in the general, but at least Rs would have something to turn out for, which helps them in the U.S. House Districts.

[Holmes]

Funny, Atlas told me this was bound to be D vs. D. Maybe California Democrats should stop counting their chickens before they hatch.

lol

[Jeppe]

Without undecideds, the numbers look like this

Newsom - 27%
Villaraigosa - 14%
Allen - 13%

[Coastal Elitist]

Without undecideds, the numbers look like this

Newsom - 27%
Villaraigosa - 14%
Allen - 13%

Am I missing something. I don't see those numbers.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Funny, Atlas told me this was bound to be D vs. D. Maybe California Democrats should stop counting their chickens before they hatch. Yes, Newsom would crush Allen in the general, but at least Rs would have something to turn out for, which helps them in the U.S. House Districts.

It's still probably going to be D vs. D....

[I’m not Stu]

Funny, Atlas told me this was bound to be D vs. D. Maybe California Democrats should stop counting their chickens before they hatch. Yes, Newsom would crush Allen in the general, but at least Rs would have something to turn out for, which helps them in the U.S. House Districts.

It's still probably going to be D vs. D....

Any chance of Newsom vs. Chiang?

[Coastal Elitist]

Without undecideds, the numbers look like this

Newsom - 27%
Villaraigosa - 14%
Allen - 13%

Where are you getting these numbers from? I don't see those anywhere in the Survey USA poll.

[Mr. Morden]

Without undecideds, the numbers look like this

Newsom - 27%
Villaraigosa - 14%
Allen - 13%

Where are you getting these numbers from? I don't see those anywhere in the Survey USA poll.

It's just the %age from the SUSA poll that excludes undecideds.  You take the raw %age in the poll writeup, and divide by 0.71, since 29% are undecided.

So, for Newsom for example, the raw number in the poll writeup is 19%.  and 19% / 0.71 = 27%.  So 27% back Newsom once you exclude undecideds.

[Coastal Elitist]

Without undecideds, the numbers look like this

Newsom - 27%
Villaraigosa - 14%
Allen - 13%

Where are you getting these numbers from? I don't see those anywhere in the Survey USA poll.

It's just the %age from the SUSA poll that excludes undecideds.  You take the raw %age in the poll writeup, and divide by 0.71, since 29% are undecided.

So, for Newsom for example, the raw number in the poll writeup is 19%.  and 19% / 0.71 = 27%.  So 27% back Newsom once you exclude undecideds.

Okay I get it. I just wouldn't do that because undecideds will decide to vote for someone.

[OneJ]

Wow, Chiang is doing well with Black voters (18%). I know it's a small sample, but why is that the case? Would've thought the plurality would have backed Newsom.

[I’m not Stu]

Wow, Chiang is doing well with Black voters (18%). I know it's a small sample, but why is that the case? Would've thought the plurality would have backed Newsom.

Likely because Chiang is from the South Bay (in the Los Angeles area), which has a large black population. Also House districts with large black populations are represented by Chiang supporters, CA-47 and CA-33.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Obviously, both CA-GOV and CA-SEN are Safe D, but it is very important that a Republican makes the runoff so that GOP turnout is maximized for the several competitive House districts.

[I’m not Stu]

Obviously, both CA-GOV and CA-SEN are Safe D, but it is very important that a Republican makes the runoff so that GOP turnout is maximized for the several competitive House districts.

Will you endorse Doug Ose, John Cox, or social conservative Laura Smith? Travis Allen is pro-choice.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Obviously, both CA-GOV and CA-SEN are Safe D, but it is very important that a Republican makes the runoff so that GOP turnout is maximized for the several competitive House districts.

Will you endorse Doug Ose, John Cox, or social conservative Laura Smith? Travis Allen is pro-choice.

I need to read more about the individual candidates.  I know Cox has the backing of the National Right to Life, but I had also heard Allen described as "very conservative" or something along those lines and could not find anything indicating he wasn't pro-life.  Could you post a link showing that he's pro-choice?

EDIT: It seems that he has a mixed record, earning a 60% from the CA Right to Life, unfortunately.  The more I read, the more I think John Cox is the choice here.  Not that any Republican actually has a shot, but we need to get one into the runoff.

[I’m not Stu]

Obviously, both CA-GOV and CA-SEN are Safe D, but it is very important that a Republican makes the runoff so that GOP turnout is maximized for the several competitive House districts.

Will you endorse Doug Ose, John Cox, or social conservative Laura Smith? Travis Allen is pro-choice.

I need to read more about the individual candidates.  I know Cox has the backing of the National Right to Life, but I had also heard Allen described as "very conservative" or something along those lines and could not find anything indicating he wasn't pro-life.  Could you post a link showing that he's pro-choice?

EDIT: It seems that he has a mixed record, earning a 60% from the CA Right to Life, unfortunately.  The more I read, the more I think John Cox is the choice here.  Not that any Republican actually has a shot, but we need to get one into the runoff.

Cox opposes capital punishment. Laura Smith, a Christian conservative, is pro-life, but won't make it to November.

[Coastal Elitist]

Obviously, both CA-GOV and CA-SEN are Safe D, but it is very important that a Republican makes the runoff so that GOP turnout is maximized for the several competitive House districts.

I think it will be D vs R. In the latest poll Allen was 1 point behind Villaraigosa and that was with 29% of voters undecided with 37% Republicans undecided. In the Senate race I think Feinstien is going to eat up most of the Democratic vote and if the no name Republican candidates split the vote I think one of them will make it anyways. I'd like to see polls with less undecideds

Regardless I'm of the opinion that a D vs D race won't matter for Republican turnout. If the gas tax repeal makes it on the ballot it'll probably help Republicans. Also personally my family always votes even in the races that are D vs D. We all voted for Sanchez for Senate in 2016.

[mds32]

Republicans in California will have something to look forward to then if they can get Allen or maybe Ose past Villaraigosa.

[I’m not Stu]

Who advances if Villaraigosa's campaign implodes?

[Mike Thick]

Who advances if Villaraigosa's campaign implodes?

Probably Chiang