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  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Stuck with Sanders, Apocrypha)
  John Kerry Picks Dick Gephardt For VP 2004
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Author Topic: John Kerry Picks Dick Gephardt For VP 2004  (Read 5155 times)
Lincoln Republican
Winfield
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« on: September 09, 2005, 09:29:53 am »

In 2004, George W Bush defeated John Kerry 286 to 252.

What if John Kerry had chosen Congressman Dick Gephardt of Missouri as his VP candidate?

Would Gephardt have had the political clout to put the Democratic ticket over the top in Missouri, Iowa, or possibly even Ohio?

Missouri, 11 EV, Bush won by 7.20%, 196,000 votes
Iowa, 7 EV, Bush won by 0.67%, 10,000 votes

With these two states, Kerry would have been elected President with 270 EV to 268 EV for Bush.

Ohio, 20 EV, Bush won by 2.11%, 118,000 votes. 

Any thoughts, analysis?
 
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phk
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« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2005, 10:25:41 am »

Iowa would be a definite flip, MO might be closer dont know.
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Beef
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« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2005, 11:11:07 am »

A running mate choice of Gephardt over Edwards would have really hurt Kerry in the South. Smiley
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jokerman
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« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2005, 04:03:37 pm »

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Ronald Reagan
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« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2005, 04:24:22 pm »


Kerry (w/Gephardt) - 264
Bush - 274
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RJ
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« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2005, 05:29:17 pm »

Why is everyone so fascinated with Gephart? Kerry may have won IA or possibly even MO, NM or even NV, but he may not win states like WI or PA. I think he would have done worse with Gephart has his running mate.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2005, 07:32:48 pm »
« Edited: September 09, 2005, 07:35:09 pm by Winfield »

A running mate choice of Gephardt over Edwards would have really hurt Kerry in the South. Smiley

Thank you for that observation.

The Kerry/Edwards ticket sure made things competitive in the south. Just look at all those southern states that fell to the Kerry juggernaut due to his "Southern Strategy."

Kerry could have had Jefferson Davis himself on the ticket, it still wouldn't have done him any good in the south. Smiley

Note to Democrats, please re-nominate John Kerry for President in 2008.

Please!
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nini2287
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« Reply #7 on: September 09, 2005, 08:05:49 pm »

Bush wins PV 52-47 and EV 279-259

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nick
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« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2005, 08:22:40 pm »

No change.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9 on: September 09, 2005, 08:26:40 pm »

He might not of carried Mo, but IA and OH (which would be close) would have gone Democrat.  Kerry would be president, IMO.
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tweed
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« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2005, 09:26:10 pm »

Makes no difference whatsoever, except maybe an extra 1-2% in Missouri.
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Hijacking the Forum for Partisan Causes
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« Reply #11 on: September 10, 2005, 12:54:52 pm »

Kerry gets 1-2% more in MO., Crushed in debates.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #12 on: September 10, 2005, 01:20:45 pm »

Honestly, it might have helped Bush.  I don't think Gephardt would have done too much better than Edwards than attracting the labor vote.  Not to mention that Gephardt was an unappologetic supporter of the War, so it might have cooled off the anti-War vote a bit.
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Defarge
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« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2005, 08:24:02 am »

Iowa flips.  Maybe Ohio.  Just maybe...
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #14 on: October 04, 2005, 10:35:25 am »


Doubtful on both.  Just look at how poorly Gephardt did in Iowa during the primary, compared to expectations.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #15 on: October 04, 2005, 10:38:36 am »

Just look at how poorly Gephardt did in Iowa during the primary, compared to expectations.

In all fairness to him, that had more to do with his money running out than anything else.
He probably wouldn't have been a good VP pick; not with a candidate like Kerry anyway.
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tweed
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« Reply #16 on: October 04, 2005, 11:02:08 am »

Why is everyone flipping Iowa?  Remember, Edwards got 21% more than Gephardt in the Iowa caucuses.
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