Third Party Runs and Presidential Swings

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

   In pretty much all election coverage on this site, if anyone dares to point out that a state swung one way, there will inevitably be a swarm of people countering with the fact that Clinton didn’t underperform Obama, or Trump Romney. This is often true. However, the conclusions they draw from this are mistaken.
   Third Parties are Warning Signs: If a state has a considerable third party run, where voters flee from one party, it is a warning sign. A state that was 55R-45D, and then swung to 50R-45D-5L, is, historically speaking, a warning sign for the next election. A significant chunk of the majority party is displeased with their own party. They are not yet content with changing parties, but they are moving there. A state that trends strongly in one direction does not normally swing back. It normally swings even further, at a slightly lowered intensity. Failure to take this into account will lead to failed predictions.