The Green Thread: Marijuana in the states

[Horus]

People like Matt Walsh and Cernovich have been on a major anti weed kick lately. I wonder if the legalization movement will slow down for awhile. Based on Ohio Issue 2 results, including almost 90% support from under 30s, and over 2/3 support from millennials I highly doubt it, but something to keep an eye on.

[DaleCooper]

People like Matt Walsh and Cernovich have been on a major anti weed kick lately. I wonder if the legalization movement will slow down for awhile. Based on Ohio Issue 2 results, including almost 90% support from under 30s, and over 2/3 support from millennials I highly doubt it, but something to keep an eye on.

If the right's propaganda machine tries to go hard against legalization then that hurts the right more than it does legalization. This is possibly the most unbeatable political issue I've seen in my lifetime so far. Nothing is going to roll back public opinion on marijuana legalization at this point.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

People like Matt Walsh and Cernovich have been on a major anti weed kick lately. I wonder if the legalization movement will slow down for awhile. Based on Ohio Issue 2 results, including almost 90% support from under 30s, and over 2/3 support from millennials I highly doubt it, but something to keep an eye on.

People who regularly listen to Matt "what is a child?" Walsh or Mike "semen is magic" Cernovich tend to already hold far-right opinions, and oftentimes their own viewers will say "You know I like you, [right-wing commentator], but you're wrong on this one." And it's mostly young conservatives who listen to these people anyway.

[Virginiá]

People like Matt Walsh and Cernovich have been on a major anti weed kick lately. I wonder if the legalization movement will slow down for awhile. Based on Ohio Issue 2 results, including almost 90% support from under 30s, and over 2/3 support from millennials I highly doubt it, but something to keep an eye on.

Voter-initiated referendums might, since most of the states who can do that either have or probably will this year, save for a handful of conservative states, which are a mixed bag because the electorates aren't as favorable and some of them either only allow statutes (which the legislatures freely use to repeal or change initiatives), or qualifying for the ballot has been made so onerous by local Republicans afraid of voters telling them what to do that it's not feasible to try and get it approved.

Really, though, at this point the federal government should be descheduling cannabis entirely with other states following suit. IIRC, a majority of people now live in an area with legal marijuana, and considerably more with at least medical marijuana. The public has long made up its mind on this subject.

[politicallefty]

People like Matt Walsh and Cernovich have been on a major anti weed kick lately. I wonder if the legalization movement will slow down for awhile. Based on Ohio Issue 2 results, including almost 90% support from under 30s, and over 2/3 support from millennials I highly doubt it, but something to keep an eye on.

If the right's propaganda machine tries to go hard against legalization then that hurts the right more than it does legalization. This is possibly the most unbeatable political issue I've seen in my lifetime so far. Nothing is going to roll back public opinion on marijuana legalization at this point.

The problem is that the low-hanging fruit is pretty much gone now, at least as far as voter initiatives go. Congress is going to eventually have to act on the issue of marijuana. When it does, I don't expect it to force states to legalize. However, it will have to act on the very significant issue of interstate commerce. Right now, each state is legally self-contained with respect to its marijuana industry. What happens if and when the federal government permits crossing state lines? What happens if a state tries to interfere (such as a state like Indiana interfering if Illinois wants to have deals with Ohio/Michigan)?

I made a map here to illustrate the current lay of the land (obviously, this does not show the differences between states that have legalized, but that's true of many things):



Obviously, the states in green are where marijuana is legal. The states in blue allow for voter-initiated constitutional amendments and statutes (except Florida, which only allows for constitutional amendments with a 60% supermajority). Orange represents the states that only allow for initiatives that are statutes, which puts them at the full mercy of their respective legislatures. (The Wyoming Constitution forbids the legislature from repealing an initiated statute for two years, though it does allow it to be amended.) The states in red require legislative action to legalize.

[DaleCooper]

People like Matt Walsh and Cernovich have been on a major anti weed kick lately. I wonder if the legalization movement will slow down for awhile. Based on Ohio Issue 2 results, including almost 90% support from under 30s, and over 2/3 support from millennials I highly doubt it, but something to keep an eye on.

If the right's propaganda machine tries to go hard against legalization then that hurts the right more than it does legalization. This is possibly the most unbeatable political issue I've seen in my lifetime so far. Nothing is going to roll back public opinion on marijuana legalization at this point.

The problem is that the low-hanging fruit is pretty much gone now, at least as far as voter initiatives go. Congress is going to eventually have to act on the issue of marijuana. When it does, I don't expect it to force states to legalize. However, it will have to act on the very significant issue of interstate commerce. Right now, each state is legally self-contained with respect to its marijuana industry. What happens if and when the federal government permits crossing state lines? What happens if a state tries to interfere (such as a state like Indiana interfering if Illinois wants to have deals with Ohio/Michigan)?

I made a map here to illustrate the current lay of the land (obviously, this does not show the differences between states that have legalized, but that's true of many things):



Obviously, the states in green are where marijuana is legal. The states in blue allow for voter-initiated constitutional amendments and statutes (except Florida, which only allows for constitutional amendments with a 60% supermajority). Orange represents the states that only allow for initiatives that are statutes, which puts them at the full mercy of their respective legislatures. (The Wyoming Constitution forbids the legislature from repealing an initiated statute for two years, though it does allow it to be amended.) The states in red require legislative action to legalize.

I honestly think we're getting to the point where even Republicans start losing to Democrats or weed-friendly Republicans in red states. The pro-criminalization side is dead as far as public opinion goes.

[politicallefty]

I honestly think we're getting to the point where even Republicans start losing to Democrats or weed-friendly Republicans in red states. The pro-criminalization side is dead as far as public opinion goes.

In most states, that's probably true. However, there are some major anomalies when you look at the map. In PA, you have the Republican state senate blocking legalization. Who the hell knows what's going on in NH? So much for "Live Free or Die", eh? In SD, the state government actively fought to overturn the initiative passed in 2020 (and they actually succeeded). And, most recently, VA Governor Youngkin vetoed a bill that would've established a legal market in the state and he used the same old talking points in his veto statement:

The proposed law, which would have created a state-regulated marketplace for recreational marijuana, “endangers Virginians’ health and safety,” Youngkin argued in his veto statement.

“States following this path have seen adverse effects on children’s and adolescent’s health and safety, increased gang activity and violent crime, significant deterioration in mental health, decreased road safety, and significant costs associated with retail marijuana that far exceed tax revenue,” he said.

I would not advise complacency when we don't even have a majority of states with full legalization. Marijuana legalization just got an Electoral College majority last year when Ohio voted to legalize (267->284).

[E-Dawg]

Will the 2024 Florida marijuana legalization initiative pass?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Florida_marijuana_legalization_initiative

For now I'm gonna vote lean no, as getting to that 60% mark seems like a somewhat heavy lift considering the current age and party demographics of the state.

I do wonder if Matt Gaetz will endorse and campaign in favor of this initiative. He has been very pro-weed throughout his whole political career. It seems to be an issue he is passionate about, and it's not like he is afraid of bucking his party publicly and vocally. Gaetz campaigning for the initiative could help convince some MAGA Republicans who value his opinions to vote in favor of it, especially the ones in his district. And while less well known, Brian Mast is also a very pro-weed GOP congressman in the state, and I could also see him endorsing this.

[Virginiá]

Marijuana legalization amendment for Florida's 2024 elections has been approved.

https://supremecourt.flcourts.gov/content/download/2285281/opinion/Opinion_SC2023-0682.pdf

Don't know why they waited until the last minute to announce it, though.

Also, on an unrelated note, the abortion amendment is also approved.