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June 18, 2019, 05:47:23 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

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  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, VirginiŠ)
  2019 - 2020 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread
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Author Topic: 2019 - 2020 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread  (Read 17537 times)
Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #100 on: October 16, 2018, 04:14:39 pm »

The "experts" strike again!



Never mind that Kate Brown has led in every poll recently and especially ignore Oregon's fundamentals, this is absolutely a tossup because reasons.
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #101 on: October 16, 2018, 07:33:09 pm »

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/10/04/poll-support-november-ballot-proposals-strong/1526518002/?utm_campaign=speakable&utm_medium=amp&utm_source=google

Prop 1 (Marijuana legalization) up 62-35, Prop 2 (redistricting commission) up 55-23, Prop 3 (voting rights) leads 72-19 (!)

Interesting that only 3% of voters are undecided on Prop 1. Guess people's stances are just really baked in now.
lol... nice
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gottsu
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« Reply #102 on: October 19, 2018, 04:04:31 pm »

Why 538 rates Iowa gubernatorial race as Likely D with Dem candidate 6% lead over GOP Kim Reynolds?

Wave election?

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Badger
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« Reply #103 on: October 23, 2018, 05:46:35 pm »

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/10/04/poll-support-november-ballot-proposals-strong/1526518002/?utm_campaign=speakable&utm_medium=amp&utm_source=google

Prop 1 (Marijuana legalization) up 62-35, Prop 2 (redistricting commission) up 55-23, Prop 3 (voting rights) leads 72-19 (!)

Interesting that only 3% of voters are undecided on Prop 1. Guess people's stances are just really baked in now.

Oh, I see what you did there.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #104 on: October 23, 2018, 05:47:58 pm »

Why 538 rates Iowa gubernatorial race as Likely D with Dem candidate 6% lead over GOP Kim Reynolds?

Wave election?


Dem enthusiasm is through the roof in Iowa.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #105 on: October 23, 2018, 06:44:40 pm »

Why 538 rates Iowa gubernatorial race as Likely D with Dem candidate 6% lead over GOP Kim Reynolds?

Wave election?

538 says many things.
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #106 on: October 23, 2018, 09:33:31 pm »

Conservative group spending $1.2M to defeat Proposal 2 redistricting commission

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/10/23/devos-proposal-2-redistricting-opposition/1743725002/

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A conservative group with ties to the powerful DeVos family of West Michigan is pumping at least $1.2 million into an effort to fight a ballot measure for an independent redistricting commission.

The spending by the Michigan Freedom Fund was disclosed Monday in a late contribution report filed by Protect My Vote, a committee that is already running radio ads against Proposal 2 and is set this week to launch television ads.

"We certainly are committed to defeating Proposal 2, and this is a step in that direction," said Tony Daunt, who is leading the opposition committee and is executive director of the Freedom Fund.

Quote
Voters Not Politicians, the committee supporting the ballot initiative, had spent roughly $1.5 million on broadcast ads of last week Monday, said Craig Mauger, a watchdog with the Michigan Campaign Finance Network.

While opponents were slow to organize, the late contribution report suggests they will be aggressive in the final two weeks of the campaign. Daunt said the group has already worked with a vendor to reserve television air time and will announce details Wednesday about new ads.

If they really wanted to tank this, they probably should have been more aggressive in fundraising and outreach sooner. But VNP might want to start raising more money of their own to at least partially counteract funding on the conservative side. The only way I could see it failing given the last couple polls is if conservatives raised an insane amount of money and were allowed to advertise unchallenged, as redistricting is a relatively opaque subject that people can be manipulated on.

I'm a bit skeptical it will fail in an election that is largely going to be super favorable to Michigan Democrats though.
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Sen. Vern
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« Reply #107 on: October 24, 2018, 09:09:03 pm »

Anyone have any predictions on NC 5 amendments that are up this year?
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #108 on: October 26, 2018, 09:42:00 am »

Redistricting initiative support surges in Michigan (now 59-29). Others are comfortably ahead.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/26/poll-michigan-ballot-proposals/1764291002/

Also lol @ this pollster's last name: Bernie Porn
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #109 on: October 26, 2018, 09:50:20 am »

Redistricting initiative support surges in Michigan (now 59-29). Others are comfortably ahead.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/26/poll-michigan-ballot-proposals/1764291002/

Also lol @ this pollster's last name: Bernie Porn

I would have hated to be that guy in 2016. In fact, I would still hate to be him.
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Storr
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« Reply #110 on: October 26, 2018, 06:53:31 pm »
« Edited: October 26, 2018, 06:57:13 pm by Storr »

Anyone have any predictions on NC 5 amendments that are up this year?

It's not super recent, but it's the most recent I found.
http://spectrumlocalnews.com/nc/charlotte/news/2018/10/08/exclusive-poll--nc-weighs-in-on-2018-elections--cooper--trump
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #111 on: October 28, 2018, 04:53:55 pm »

Florida Amendment 4 (restore felon voting rights) (NYT/Siena):

Yes 60%
No 31%
Undecided 9%

I am worried that the "undecideds" will just vote no, but 60 would be enough.
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Mondale
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« Reply #112 on: October 29, 2018, 12:15:31 am »

Florida Amendment 4 (restore felon voting rights) (NYT/Siena):

Yes 60%
No 31%
Undecided 9%

I am worried that the "undecideds" will just vote no, but 60 would be enough.

Passing this will effectively turn FL into a tilt D state
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #113 on: October 29, 2018, 07:02:55 pm »

Florida Amendment 4 (restore felon voting rights) (NYT/Siena):

Yes 60%
No 31%
Undecided 9%

I am worried that the "undecideds" will just vote no, but 60 would be enough.

Passing this will effectively turn FL into a tilt D state

*Crosses fingers* Though even for less cynical reasons, it would still be an overall positive.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #114 on: November 02, 2018, 01:45:04 pm »

PPP did a big North Carolina poll

State Supreme Court:
Anita Earls (D) 37
Barbara Jackson (R) 23
Chris Anglin (R) 14

They also have Democrats leading in two NC Court of Appeals races, one of them featuring similar vote splitting to the Supreme Court race.

The judicial vacancies powergrab amendment is failing 29-43, and the Elections Board powergrab amendment is also failing 40-32. Unfortunately, voter ID is passing 57-34 and the tax cap is passing 50-32.
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #115 on: November 02, 2018, 01:53:48 pm »

PPP did a big North Carolina poll

State Supreme Court:
Anita Earls (D) 37
Barbara Jackson (R) 23
Chris Anglin (R) 14

They also have Democrats leading in two NC Court of Appeals races, one of them featuring similar vote splitting to the Supreme Court race.

The judicial vacancies powergrab amendment is failing 29-43, and the Elections Board powergrab amendment is also failing 40-32. Unfortunately, voter ID is passing 57-34 and the tax cap is passing 50-32.

Despite the last two failing, this is still a massive win. It means Democrats will have control of the election boards at least so long as Cooper or another Democrat is governor, and they will have a 5 - 2 Supreme Court majority. It's basically the end of shenanigans from the GOP and possibly a path to flipping the legislature before the next redistricting.
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Wolverine22
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« Reply #116 on: November 02, 2018, 03:32:44 pm »

Michigan ballot proposals as of 10/30-11/1/18:

Proposal 1 (marijuana)
Yes: 57%
No: 40%
Undecided: 3%

Proposal 2 (independent redistricting)
Yes: 58.5%
No: 26.5%
Undecided: 15%

Proposal 3 (voterís rights)
Yes: 68.5%
No: 21.7%
Undecided: 9.8%
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Ebsy
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« Reply #117 on: November 03, 2018, 01:12:12 am »

Glorious!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #118 on: November 03, 2018, 08:35:10 am »

PPP did a big North Carolina poll

State Supreme Court:
Anita Earls (D) 37
Barbara Jackson (R) 23
Chris Anglin (R) 14

They also have Democrats leading in two NC Court of Appeals races, one of them featuring similar vote splitting to the Supreme Court race.

The judicial vacancies powergrab amendment is failing 29-43, and the Elections Board powergrab amendment is also failing 40-32. Unfortunately, voter ID is passing 57-34 and the tax cap is passing 50-32.

Despite the last two failing, this is still a massive win. It means Democrats will have control of the election boards at least so long as Cooper or another Democrat is governor, and they will have a 5 - 2 Supreme Court majority. It's basically the end of shenanigans from the GOP and possibly a path to flipping the legislature before the next redistricting.

If the Democrats can kill the super majority this year, they should sue for new maps on day one.
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Badger
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« Reply #119 on: November 06, 2018, 09:43:19 am »

PPP did a big North Carolina poll

State Supreme Court:
Anita Earls (D) 37
Barbara Jackson (R) 23
Chris Anglin (R) 14

They also have Democrats leading in two NC Court of Appeals races, one of them featuring similar vote splitting to the Supreme Court race.

The judicial vacancies powergrab amendment is failing 29-43, and the Elections Board powergrab amendment is also failing 40-32. Unfortunately, voter ID is passing 57-34 and the tax cap is passing 50-32.

Despite the last two failing, this is still a massive win. It means Democrats will have control of the election boards at least so long as Cooper or another Democrat is governor, and they will have a 5 - 2 Supreme Court majority. It's basically the end of shenanigans from the GOP and possibly a path to flipping the legislature before the next redistricting.

If the Democrats can kill the super majority this year, they should sue for new maps on day one.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #120 on: November 10, 2018, 12:38:52 am »

Update from Oregon on Ballot Initiatives:

MEASURE 105 REPEALS LAW LIMITING USE OF STATE/LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT RESOURCES TO ENFORCE FEDERAL IMMIGRATION LAWS (36.7% YES- 63.3% NO). Almost 2:1 Support for sanctuary State laws in Oregon.

Img


MEASURE 106 AMENDS CONSTITUTION: PROHIBITS SPENDING 'PUBLIC FUNDS' (DEFINED) DIRECTLY/INDIRECTLY FOR 'ABORTION' (DEFINED); EXCEPTIONS; REDUCES ABORTION ACCESS

(35.6% YES--- 64.4% NO)

Img


So despite Republican attempts to put Abortion and Immigration on the ballot to spur Turnout in the '18 GE, it appears that was not successful when it came to the OR-GOV race.

Food for thought....


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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #121 on: November 17, 2018, 09:35:10 am »

I can't help but feel like Michigan Republicans are going to resist the voting rights expansion passed by voters. Whitmer's vetoes could prevent them from being sneaky, but if they pass implementing legislation before she takes office, they will have more discretion.

For example, perhaps Republicans only allow same-day registration at govt offices and not at polling places during election day (the amendment implies at polling places too but Republicans can ignore that and hope the state supreme court bails them out)? There is a big difference. Or what about no-excuse absentee voting? Does this mean MI gets actual in-person early voting or are they going to stick to mail? Because, again, there is a huge difference in the actual effect on the convenience of voting for people. How will election audits be done?

Maybe I'm overthinking it, but one thing I've learned is to never, ever trust Republicans to implement ballot initiatives fairly. Michigan Republicans are already proving why that is with the min. wage and paid sick leave initiatives they short-circuited. And we all know the emergency manager veto referendum they invalidated with cheap tricks.
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #122 on: November 27, 2018, 06:00:05 pm »

Should have waited until 2020 to get this one on the ballot tbh:

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Elliot County Populist
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« Reply #123 on: November 27, 2018, 06:06:59 pm »

Should have waited until 2020 to get this one on the ballot tbh:



LOL of course it depends on black Missouri lawmakers to work with the republicans.
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mrappaport1220
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« Reply #124 on: December 08, 2018, 10:33:32 pm »

!!!!
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