2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread

[Gass3268]

I guess I will be posting Missouri Proposition A (Right to Work) analysis in this thread. I think almost everyone expects it to go down in defeat, the question is really by how much. Turnout is projected to be fairly high (30%) for an August primary election in St. Louis City, St. Louis County and Jackson County.

Geographically how do you see the vote going?

My best guess is that No will win in the big cities (Jackson and Clay Counties for KC and St. Louis City and County for STL) as well as areas with a lot of union strength: the lead belt, the Bootheel, Jefferson County (south of St. Louis), St. Joseph, Jefferson City and Columbia, maybe even super Republican places like Cape Girardeau and Springfield. There are a lot of rural/small city counties where industry is important and most of the factories are unionized: St. Francois County, Ste. Genevieve, Warren and Lincoln Counties, the Lead Belt and the Bootheel, Marshall and Sedalia, Hannibal, Macon and Moberly, etc. Not sure if No will win, but it will run far ahead of a Democrat in those places. The big question is St. Charles County, which while extremely Republican has historically been a bastion of pro labor Republicans, and has a heavy middle class union presence, especially in West Alton, St. Charles and St. Peters.

A surprising number of Republican primary candidates are campaigning against Prop A, trying to distinguish themselves from the poisoned GOP brand in Jefferson City.

My dad and his wife voted no today in Marshall.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/StLouisCoVotes/status/1026904563134214147

Looks like confirmation of high turnout in St. Louis County. There's been heavy rain off and on all morning and into the afterrnoon. There will be a big surge in voters starting 5, so turnout at 15% now is a rather good indication.

Edit: Also illustrative:

https://twitter.com/mattdsain/status/1026904380740698117

This precinct is in HD 14, which covers part of the Northland, the largely middle class, unionized part of the KC suburbs extending into Clay County. The incumbent, Republican Kevin Corlew, is a pro labor Republican who was recently beaten like a dog by Lauren Arthur in the SD 17 special election to replace Ryan Silvey, another pro labor Republican. High turnout here can only be good for defeating Prop A.

[Ebsy]

I've seen reports of high turnout in North City and South City since the rain let off, already surpassing 2014 turnout. There is an expected surge coming at 5:00, when all the union job sites let their workers off to head to the polls.

[YPestis25]

Is this the place to discuss the Prop A results?

If so, it's down 65-35 with two precincts in.

[Ebsy]

Yeah, RTW is getting crushed. There are some absolutely hysterical results in some of the industrial rural counties.

[YPestis25]

Yeah, RTW is getting crushed. There are some absolutely hysterical results in some of the industrial rural counties.

It's beautiful.

St. Genevieve county voting 85-15 against, Reynolds is 82-18 against and Iron 78-22 against! Now hopefully they remember in November who tried to pass RTW in the first place.

[Ebsy]

Yeah, RTW is getting crushed. There are some absolutely hysterical results in some of the industrial rural counties.

It's beautiful.

St. Genevieve county voting 85-15 against and Iron 78-22 against!

The Farmington/St. Francois County result is equally as eye popping.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah, RTW is getting crushed. There are some absolutely hysterical results in some of the industrial rural counties.

It's beautiful.

St. Genevieve county voting 85-15 against and Iron 78-22 against!

The Farmington/St. Francois County result is equally as eye popping.

St. Charles?

[YPestis25]

Yeah, RTW is getting crushed. There are some absolutely hysterical results in some of the industrial rural counties.

It's beautiful.

St. Genevieve county voting 85-15 against and Iron 78-22 against!

The Farmington/St. Francois County result is equally as eye popping.

St. Charles?

Nothing reported on the SOS site, but Ebsy may know something I don't.

The Lead Belt continues to be one of the underrated areas of Missouri.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yeah, RTW is getting crushed. There are some absolutely hysterical results in some of the industrial rural counties.

It's beautiful.

St. Genevieve county voting 85-15 against and Iron 78-22 against!

The Farmington/St. Francois County result is equally as eye popping.

St. Charles?

Nothing reported on the SOS site, but Ebsy may know something I don't.

The Lead Belt continues to be one of the underrated areas of Missouri.

I figured it would be interesting to see how the vote ended up in the $$$ R areas - and St. Charles is the richest county in the state.

[user12345]

Has anyone found a statewide map for RTW?

[Ebsy]

Prop A is losing in St. Charles with 68% voting no.

Jefferson County: 79% no.

[YPestis25]

Has anyone found a statewide map for RTW?

Here's one. It seems to be lagging behind the NYT in reporting results, but it gives a pretty clear picture.

https://www.stltoday.com/online/missouri-proposition-a-map-and-results/html_d1ee8bc2-407d-5d00-be5c-5e3b7f5b84b7.html

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/WesleyLowery/status/1027035024217067520

[Virginiá]

‘Hitler was right’: KC area winner of Missouri House primary leaves trail of bigotry

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article216387050.html

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[TheSaint250]

Map of polls:

I only averaged polls (and rounded accordingly) that were taken STARTING ON OR AFTER May 1 (for example, a poll started on April 30th was not used). I looked at Wikipedia and used all non-internal polls within the time period, with the only other exception being the exclusion of a poll from Saint Leo University in Florida due to its horrible track record and extremely high percentage of undecideds. The matchups used are between the current major-party nominees in every state or, in states where some primaries have not happened yet, the leading candidates in primary polling (those elections are starred).

Seats that switch parties if the current polling holds:

Democratic Gains (Republican Losses)

-Arizona (Joe Garcia def. Doug Ducey)
-Florida (Gwen Graham def. Ron DeSantis)
-Illinois (J.B. Pritzker def. Bruce Rauner)
-New Mexico (Michelle Lujan Graham def. Steve Pearce)
-Ohio (Richard Cordray def. Mike DeWine)
-Oklahoma (Drew Edmonson def. Kevin Stitt)
-Wisconsin (Tony Evers def. Scott Walker)

Republican Gains (Independent Losses)

-Alaska (Mike Dunleavy def. Mark Begich and Bill Walker)


Seats that are at risk of switching parties if the current polling holds:

Republican-Held

-Georgia (Brian Kemp vs. Stacey Abrams)
-Maine (Shawn Moody vs. Janet Mills vs. Terry Hayes)

Democratic-Held

-Oregon (Kate Brown vs. Knute Buehler)


Side note: The New York matchup is just between Cuomo and Molinaro, but if you add in every other candidate, Cuomo's lead falls to a 19% margin.

[Virginiá]

By overturning ballot initiatives, more lawmakers are rejecting the will of their voters

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2018/08/14/daily-202-by-overturning-ballot-initiatives-more-lawmakers-are-rejecting-the-will-of-their-voters/5b724ae01b326b4f9e90a6f2/

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Really it's a bit unnerving when this start to becomes a trend, with lawmakers starting to think that the voters really don't matter and their opinions are irrelevant, so just toss aside initiatives they approve sometimes by overwhelming majorities. I'm beginning to think America needs a wave of initiative tampering laws, which essentially prevent lawmakers from making changes to initiated statutes unless they get the changes approved by voters. It would be a shame if they were so power hungry that they forced the people to tie their hands, because there are times when initiatives need some tinkering after the fact and it's much easier for lawmakers to do.

[Tartarus Sauce]

By overturning ballot initiatives, more lawmakers are rejecting the will of their voters

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2018/08/14/daily-202-by-overturning-ballot-initiatives-more-lawmakers-are-rejecting-the-will-of-their-voters/5b724ae01b326b4f9e90a6f2/

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Really it's a bit unnerving when this start to becomes a trend, with lawmakers starting to think that the voters really don't matter and their opinions are irrelevant, so just toss aside initiatives they approve sometimes by overwhelming majorities. I'm beginning to think America needs a wave of initiative tampering laws, which essentially prevent lawmakers from making changes to initiated statutes unless they get the changes approved by voters. It would be a shame if they were so power hungry that they forced the people to tie their hands, because there are times when initiatives need some tinkering after the fact and it's much easier for lawmakers to do.

While ballot initiatives certainly have their issues, flat out ignoring them negates the whole point of having them in the first place.

[Virginiá]

Didn't seem worthy of a new thread, but:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-hacking-exclusive/exclusive-fbi-probing-cyber-attack-on-congressional-campaign-in-california-sources-idUSKBN1L22BZ

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[The Other Castro]

Big news! We're finally getting a Quinnipiac poll for the CT Gov election. This is the first legit public poll we've had for the entire race, and the first post-primary poll for the general election.

https://twitter.com/quinnipiacpoll/status/1032327793877471232?s=21

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nebraska Medicaid expansion makes ballot for November

[jacobmeteorite]

As a proud Democrat, I’d love for Democrats to hold all their Senate re-election seats. But if we had to lose any, I’ll give up Heitkamp and Donnelly, in exchange for Sinema, Rosen and O’Rourke.

[American2020]

https://www.electionprojection.com/governor-elections.php

[Politician]

https://www.electionprojection.com/governor-elections.php

IceSpear will be very butthurt about this map. "How dare Oklahoma go D while Oregon and Nevada are R! Muh "all polling before October is trash"! Muh racist hicks!"

[IceSpear]

https://www.electionprojection.com/governor-elections.php

IceSpear will be very butthurt about this map. "How dare Oklahoma go D while Oregon and Nevada are R! Muh "all polling before October is trash"! Muh racist hicks!"

Wait, you seriously believe Oklahoma will go D at the same time Oregon and Nevada go R? LOL. Bookmarking this.

Looks like the map is just based on early polls, including the one that said Trump would win Oregon. Clearly so reliable though!