2021 - 2024 Candidate news/polls/fundraising/ballot initiatives megathread

[Virginiá]

Not sure where else to put this, but:

https://twitter.com/BMcM2018/status/1072532980835463175

[UncleSam]

Not sure where else to put this, but:

https://twitter.com/BMcM2018/status/1072532980835463175

Fair maps have almost nothing to do with it in Michigan or Pennsylvania. Democrats are self packed so ridiculously into Detroit and Philadelphia that any fair map will be tilted to the GOP pretty significantly as a comparison to raw votes. That’s what happens when you appeal to more and more heavily concentrated voters, and why parties literally weren’t supposed to do that.

Wisconsin Dems would have a tough time in but definitely could’ve won with fair maps this past year - Dems have a lot of ancestral strength across much of Western Wisconsin and Milwaukee isn’t nearly as packed as Detroit or Philadelphia are (and the Milwaukee suburbs are much worse GOP packs than exist for the GOP in either other state).

[Virginiá]

The idea behind fair maps isn't so much the expectation that Democrats would hold the legislature every cycle, but that they'd at least win majorities from time to time, especially when they get D+5 - D+8 in the legislative popular vote, like Michigan Democrats have twice under this decade's maps. But, because the maps are what they are, that makes even landslide wins ineffective. If you're saying they wouldn't have in 2012, or had a reasonable shot even this cycle, that's bs.

Speaks a lot about the system when the legislative chamber that is supposed to be most receptive to changes in public mood is this ineffective at responding to it.

[Brittain33]

Republican deplorable Dick Black is retiring from his Loudoun-based Virginia State Senate seat. District went for Clinton by 6 and Northam by 11.

[lfromnj]

Republican deplorable Dick Black is retiring from his Loudoun-based Virginia State Senate seat. District went for Clinton by 6 and Northam by 11.

Likely D

Anyway VA GOP Might be able to hold the house coz thats an R gerrymander but the state senate is a d gerrymander.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Honestly, the Ohio requirement that a specific number of signatures be required to qualify a ballot initiative from at least half the Counties, regardless of said Counties population or anything like that ought to be considered a violation of one person one vote. Its basically just the same issues in play as with the Georgia County Unit System for Gubernatorial primaries that was struck down decades ago, just with a different purpose.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The Ohio Requirement gives this maximum possible disparity

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This is a partisan comparison of how many Counties each Party would theoretically need based on PVI to have a majority of the State Population

[VAModerate]

Cherie Berry, NC Commissioner of Labor, since 2001, announced that she not run for re-election in 2020.

Known to many as the "elevator lady/queen" she survived the 2008 D wave in NC and has won on the same ticket as many popular Democratic governors.

Democrats will attempt to take this state seat for sure in 2020. She will have been in office for 20 years when she retires

[junior chįmp]

https://mobile.twitter.com/vademocrats/status/1150894800364802048

"Tis better to burn out than fade away"

-VA GOP

[InheritTheWind]

https://mobile.twitter.com/vademocrats/status/1150894800364802048

"Tis better to burn out than fade away"

-VA GOP

It's like they looked at the FL Dems and went, "you know what, we can do them one better."

[Epaminondas]

A regular perusal of the right-wing media bubble reveals a huge focus given to the RNC's fundraising compared to the DNC.
Reading them, it feels like the DNC is broke and the RNC can splurge.

For lack of a "Fundraising 2020" thread I'm unsure where to post this, but I have two questions:

1) Is it true that the DNC is eyes deep in debt?
2) Does it matter at all if the candidates individually raise the outrageous amounts of 2018 again?

[Ebsy]

It's typical for the incumbent party's committee to raise massive amounts of money, and is especially true in this case due to Trump's fundraising efforts for the RNC. For the DNC, it's not like any of the Democratic candidates are raising money for it at this stage. It seems like the DNC has more cash on hand than debt so it is not exactly drowning in debt at this point, but it certainly is having money problems. Whether this matters or not, who can really say?

[IceSpear]

https://mobile.twitter.com/vademocrats/status/1150894800364802048

"Tis better to burn out than fade away"

-VA GOP

Won't make a difference once it rains.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Utah Attorney General Republican primary poll:

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2020/06/11/poll-gop-utah-attorney/
Suffolk University/Salt Lake Tribune
June 4-7
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Sean Reyes (incumbent) 30.8%
David Leavitt 26%
Undecided 43.2%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I posted this in the Georgia mega thread after mistaking it for a Utah one:

It's old, but there's been a poll on the ballot measure to fund public education with the state income tax:

https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/23694-poll-voters-are-not-yet-sold-on-constitutional-amendment-to-change-school-funding

Y2 Analytics/Utah Policy/KUTV 2 News
March 21-30, 2020
1260 likely voters
MoE: 2.8%

For: 46%
Against: 35%
Undecided: 19%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Medicaid Expansion initiative is now uncomfortably tight in Oklahoma.

Edit: 94% in and there's 1% between Yes and No.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d60bcd63-12bd-4b7c-85e8-5102d7b932f0

Poll of ME-02 Republicans regarding a 2022 Republican gubernatorial primary including LePage:

SurveyUSA/FairVoteBangor Daily News
June 30-July 6, 2020
604 likely GOP primary voters
MoE: 3.8%

Probably/definitely LePage 77%
Need to know who's on ballot 21%
Definitely some other Republican 6%
Not sure 1%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Some district-level polls:

FLORIDA
Los Angeles District Attorney
https://twitter.com/maxxszabo/status/1281322995391164416

MICHIGAN
Michigan House District 66
https://twitter.com/WheelerForHD66/status/1281614530834046978

Michigan House District 79
https://twitter.com/C79th/status/1280204644778749952

[Bidenworth2020]

Williams 44
Rosendale 44

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/bullock-most-popular-montana-politician-narrowly-leads-daines/

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.wgnsradio.com/article/61847/rutherford-cannon-county-bar-association-release-poll-regarding-the-judicial-election-in-the-16th-judicial-district

Tennessee Circuit Court Judge election in 16th judicial district:

Rutherford & Cannon County Bar Association Judicial Election Poll
Released July 7, 2020
Sampling size: 75

"Please rank the candidates for Circuit Court Judge, listed alphabetically below, by preference for the position, considering the experience, judicial demeanour and overall qualifications of each Candidate. The incumbent is indicated with an asterisk. Please note that One (1) indicates the Candidate you recommend most for the position and Two (2) indicates the candidate you recommend least for the position."

Jo Atwood (*) 1.8
Jack Mitchell   1.2

The Ranking Score is the weighted average calculated by dividing the sum of all weighted rankings by the number of total responses.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/07/15/politics/maine-to-use-ranked-choice-voting-in-presidential-election-after-gop-veto-effort-fails/

The Maine GOP has failed to collect enough valid signatures to run a veto referendum on RCV at the presidential level in November. Just putting that on the ballot would mean it couldn't be used in 2020 for the presidential race, but now it will be.

[Storr]

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/07/15/politics/maine-to-use-ranked-choice-voting-in-presidential-election-after-gop-veto-effort-fails/

The Maine GOP has failed to collect enough valid signatures to run a veto referendum on RCV at the presidential level in November. Just putting that on the ballot would mean it couldn't be used in 2020 for the presidential race, but now it will be.

This could be the difference between winning and losing ME-2 for both major parties.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Charlie Baker fails to bump off a Democratic incumbent: https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1301024340616646658

[wbrocks67]

Galloway outraises Parsons by over 2:1 in August. Seems like Parson is sleeping at the wheel here

https://mailchi.mp/b8987dfe893c/auditor-nicole-galloway-once-again-outraises-governor-parson-by-21