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Author Topic: Polish Politics and Elections  (Read 104465 times)
PSOL
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« Reply #100 on: October 11, 2018, 10:01:11 AM »



I like how Reuters had info about that and only few Polish media outlet informed about that so far, one being website of Radio Maryja. 
I’m surprised too on what investors value as important news. On the other hand it is a well researched news source.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #101 on: October 11, 2018, 11:20:34 AM »



I like how Reuters had info about that and only few Polish media outlet informed about that so far, one being website of Radio Maryja.  
The Polish media just don't want to support fascism. After all, if the PO mayor of Lublin is to be believed, a peaceful Pride parade and a nationalist counter-demonstration being organised by people who have expressed their desire to use violence against the Pride marchers are equally dangerous and both must be banned in the interests of public order. Why are you such a symetrysta?
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #102 on: October 11, 2018, 11:46:54 AM »



I like how Reuters had info about that and only few Polish media outlet informed about that so far, one being website of Radio Maryja.  
The Polish media just don't want to support fascism. After all, if the PO mayor of Lublin is to be believed, a peaceful Pride parade and a nationalist counter-demonstration being organised by people who have expressed their desire to use violence against the Pride marchers are equally dangerous and both must be banned in the interests of public order. Why are you such a symetrysta?



Sad How can we post on Atlas when the constitution is ignored Sad
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #103 on: October 12, 2018, 04:42:24 AM »

Social services workers today organised manifestation (while I am writing this post manifestation is still on) in Warsaw which is culmination of few months of protests on local scale. Their main goals are higher salaries which are pretty low while recently due to some social programs of PiS they got much more work to do. Their disposable earnings are comparable to level of cashier in grocery store which in Poland is usually considered as low salary level. Other thing they want is improvement of dialogue with government as social services workers trade unions got recently pretty bad relations with Labour Ministry and minister, lets say, was not really happy with those protests. Very feminized protest though, what is not surprising but for foreigner might be interesting aspect. 

https://www.facebook.com/federacja.socjalnych/videos/2118509408398818/
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #104 on: October 12, 2018, 03:06:51 PM »

Warsaw debate was a total circus, I do not even want to make some summary for you there.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #105 on: October 12, 2018, 04:47:32 PM »

Warsaw debate was a total circus, I do not even want to make some summary for you there.
I miss the days when Joanna Erbel was the biggest joke around.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #106 on: October 20, 2018, 04:26:48 PM »

TOMORROW
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #107 on: October 20, 2018, 04:28:46 PM »

Ten rok na pewno będzie rokiem UPR-u.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #108 on: October 20, 2018, 04:32:21 PM »

Anyway, the only prediction I'll venture is that if PO+.N lose badly they're going to blame it on the psalm that's being read out in all churches on that day that coincidentally contains the words 'law and justice'.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #109 on: October 20, 2018, 04:52:54 PM »


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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #110 on: October 21, 2018, 03:32:47 AM »

Today.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #111 on: October 21, 2018, 07:16:32 AM »

Turnout 12.00 AM CEST

2018: 15.6%
2014: 14.6%
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bigic
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« Reply #112 on: October 21, 2018, 07:30:08 AM »

Hope this is bad for PiS and good for the democratic parties.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #113 on: October 21, 2018, 07:33:16 AM »

The time-honoured Polish tradition of people 'leaking' supposed exit poll results thinly disguised as prices of fruit and vegetables onto the twatters under #bazarek (market) has started in earnest.

Quite a few of them seem to be ramping good results for PO+.N, but it's never clear who there is actually leaking and who is just making stuff up.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #114 on: October 21, 2018, 07:47:42 AM »

So these are both local and voivodship elections. Which ones are the most important?
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #115 on: October 21, 2018, 08:10:15 AM »

So these are both local and voivodship elections. Which ones are the most important?
The locals are probably seen as more relevant but the voivodeship assemblies are, among others, in charge of allocating money from the EU structural funds, which has obvious implications for electoral politics (which is why winning majorities in as many of the assemblies/sejmiks as possible is so important to PiS). So I'd say the voivodeships.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #116 on: October 21, 2018, 08:12:13 AM »

The time-honoured Polish tradition of people 'leaking' supposed exit poll results thinly disguised as prices of fruit and vegetables onto the twatters under #bazarek (market) has started in earnest.

Quite a few of them seem to be ramping good results for PO+.N, but it's never clear who there is actually leaking and who is just making stuff up.


Ummm, but this Sunday is Sunday with ban on trade :thinking:
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #117 on: October 21, 2018, 08:15:08 AM »

So these are both local and voivodship elections. Which ones are the most important?
The locals are probably seen as more relevant but the voivodeship assemblies are, among others, in charge of allocating money from the EU structural funds, which has obvious implications for electoral politics (which is why winning majorities in as many of the assemblies/sejmiks as possible is so important to PiS). So I'd say the voivodeships.

Yeah, but local are probably closer to people as they usually 1) know who is mayor/president/wójt and most often do not know members of voivodship sejmiks 2) spheres of competencies of powiat/gmina level government are easier to understand and to experience for citizens - schools, health care, local infrastructure and transport etc.

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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #118 on: October 21, 2018, 08:18:00 AM »
« Edited: October 21, 2018, 08:30:42 AM by Heat »

One very important thing that needs to be kept in mind is that due to different turnout patterns, vote shares in the voivodeship assembly elections do not match up to parliamentary elections - PSL and 'non-partisan lists' (read: stooges of over-ambitious local politicians) tend to do much better. PO managed 31% in 2010 while polling about as well as PiS are now. PiS hitting, say, 32-35% should most certainly not be seen as a sign that they're losing support from 2015.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #119 on: October 21, 2018, 08:20:11 AM »

What different turnout patterns are these? Lower turnout among PiS supporters than among .N/PO supporters, PiS supporters voting for PSL/locals in local/voivodship elections, both...?
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #120 on: October 21, 2018, 08:28:54 AM »
« Edited: October 21, 2018, 08:36:09 AM by Heat »

What different turnout patterns are these? Lower turnout among PiS supporters than among .N/PO supporters, PiS supporters voting for PSL/locals in local/voivodship elections, both...?
There's a tendency for turnout in local elections to be higher in rural areas and small towns than in parliamentary elections and lower in bigger cities. This tends to reward parties that, depending on how you choose to look at it, either have a stronger-than-average grassroots presence or rely on clientelistic/machine politics.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #121 on: October 21, 2018, 08:31:40 AM »

What different turnout patterns are these? Lower turnout among PiS supporters than among .N/PO supporters, PiS supporters voting for PSL/locals in local/voivodship elections, both...?


PSL and local committees tend to do better in the lower level elections. On gmina and county level politics are generally less partisan. Other thing that often candidates which are members of the political party prefer to participate in elections as local electoral committee, often they have some conflict with their party etc. Voivodship sejmiks elections are the most partisan of local elections but still in most of the voivodships local committees are able to get some elected members like Germans in Opolskie and Silesian regionalists in Upper Silesia. Also on that level PSL is still stronger compared to parliamentary elections. Generally big cities tend to ignore those elections thanks to what parties and electoral committees which are strong in rural areas (PSL, Opole Germans) generally have better results than in parliamentary elections.


Example: in 2010 local elections PSL got 21,53% of votes in Podkarpackie voidvodship which is PiS stronghold. In 2011 parliamentary elections in two electoral districts to which voivodship is divided PSL got 9% and 6% of votes. In next local elections, in 2014, they got in the same voivodship 24,39% of votes.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #122 on: October 21, 2018, 08:54:22 AM »

A fair bit of Trzaskowski ramping on Twitter now. Wouldn't normally put much stock in it, but considering there are also reports of record turnout in Warsaw...
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
kataak
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« Reply #123 on: October 21, 2018, 10:54:41 AM »

Turnout 12:00 as for the voivodships.

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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #124 on: October 21, 2018, 11:37:55 AM »

Turnout 41.7% as of 5pm

Was 39.3% at 5:30pm in 2014
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