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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #25 on: February 23, 2018, 07:10:51 AM »

Are Razem in contention for any seats anywhere?


As for now this is still not yet decided everywhere. As for the sejmiks level they have ambitions to create their own electoral committees in all voivodships so they have no chances to get an seats. As for the lower level like counties or cities which are de iure counties they will participate in coalitions with some NGOs or other parties. In Wrocław they already decided that they will have coalition with Greens, as far as I remember also they will have some coalition in Warsaw. But probably they will start only in the biggest cities and they do not have chances to win anything anywhere to be honest.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #26 on: February 23, 2018, 10:38:16 AM »

Are Razem in contention for any seats anywhere?
Maybe a few in Warsaw and Wroclaw if we're very, very lucky.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #27 on: February 23, 2018, 10:50:33 AM »


When Poland sends its posters, they're not sending the best. They're sending users that have lots of problems and they're bringing those problems. They're bringing spam, they're bringing s**tposts. They're trolls and some, I assume, are good contributors, but I speak to moderators and they're telling us what we're getting
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Mazda
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« Reply #28 on: February 23, 2018, 04:32:00 PM »

Are Razem in contention for any seats anywhere?


As for now this is still not yet decided everywhere. As for the sejmiks level they have ambitions to create their own electoral committees in all voivodships so they have no chances to get an seats. As for the lower level like counties or cities which are de iure counties they will participate in coalitions with some NGOs or other parties. In Wrocław they already decided that they will have coalition with Greens, as far as I remember also they will have some coalition in Warsaw. But probably they will start only in the biggest cities and they do not have chances to win anything anywhere to be honest.
That's a pity, it would be nice to get a few people trained up and entrenched for the next Sejm election.

And/or to see a few young idealists watch their dreams die before their eyes in the face of Polish local government.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #29 on: February 23, 2018, 05:09:30 PM »

Are Razem in contention for any seats anywhere?


As for now this is still not yet decided everywhere. As for the sejmiks level they have ambitions to create their own electoral committees in all voivodships so they have no chances to get an seats. As for the lower level like counties or cities which are de iure counties they will participate in coalitions with some NGOs or other parties. In Wrocław they already decided that they will have coalition with Greens, as far as I remember also they will have some coalition in Warsaw. But probably they will start only in the biggest cities and they do not have chances to win anything anywhere to be honest.
That's a pity, it would be nice to get a few people trained up and entrenched for the next Sejm election.

And/or to see a few young idealists watch their dreams die before their eyes in the face of Polish local government.

At the end there will be three distinct lefts running separately, each would get just above 3% and proclaim Great Success®
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #30 on: February 24, 2018, 10:20:06 AM »
« Edited: February 24, 2018, 10:27:42 AM by Heat »

Are Razem in contention for any seats anywhere?


As for now this is still not yet decided everywhere. As for the sejmiks level they have ambitions to create their own electoral committees in all voivodships so they have no chances to get an seats. As for the lower level like counties or cities which are de iure counties they will participate in coalitions with some NGOs or other parties. In Wrocław they already decided that they will have coalition with Greens, as far as I remember also they will have some coalition in Warsaw. But probably they will start only in the biggest cities and they do not have chances to win anything anywhere to be honest.
That's a pity, it would be nice to get a few people trained up and entrenched for the next Sejm election.

And/or to see a few young idealists watch their dreams die before their eyes in the face of Polish local government.
Another issue is that the party leadership has chosen to focus on the elections to the sejmiks (fearing that if Razem skipped the sejmiks elections they'd be seen as winding down and a wasted vote) which a lot of party members aren't happy with because 1) they think it's a waste of time, 2) in some places there aren't even enough potential paper candidates, and 3) a lot of them are/were urban activists who don't care about the sejmiks and were hoping to devote their energies to city councils where it'd be less impossible to get elected. About half of Razem Kielce (Razem Kielce are surprisingly active but also infamous in Razem for constantly getting in petty fights over policy and resources and are basically despised by the rest of the party) seems to have left the party in a huff over this.
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Mazda
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« Reply #31 on: February 24, 2018, 02:51:23 PM »

Are Razem in contention for any seats anywhere?


As for now this is still not yet decided everywhere. As for the sejmiks level they have ambitions to create their own electoral committees in all voivodships so they have no chances to get an seats. As for the lower level like counties or cities which are de iure counties they will participate in coalitions with some NGOs or other parties. In Wrocław they already decided that they will have coalition with Greens, as far as I remember also they will have some coalition in Warsaw. But probably they will start only in the biggest cities and they do not have chances to win anything anywhere to be honest.
That's a pity, it would be nice to get a few people trained up and entrenched for the next Sejm election.

And/or to see a few young idealists watch their dreams die before their eyes in the face of Polish local government.
Another issue is that the party leadership has chosen to focus on the elections to the sejmiks (fearing that if Razem skipped the sejmiks elections they'd be seen as winding down and a wasted vote) which a lot of party members aren't happy with because 1) they think it's a waste of time, 2) in some places there aren't even enough potential paper candidates, and 3) a lot of them are/were urban activists who don't care about the sejmiks and were hoping to devote their energies to city councils where it'd be less impossible to get elected. About half of Razem Kielce (Razem Kielce are surprisingly active but also infamous in Razem for constantly getting in petty fights over policy and resources and are basically despised by the rest of the party) seems to have left the party in a huff over this.
That sounds like a fun situation. Almost makes it seem even more as if they're a wasted vote and/or winding down.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #32 on: February 24, 2018, 03:09:45 PM »

Are Razem in contention for any seats anywhere?


As for now this is still not yet decided everywhere. As for the sejmiks level they have ambitions to create their own electoral committees in all voivodships so they have no chances to get an seats. As for the lower level like counties or cities which are de iure counties they will participate in coalitions with some NGOs or other parties. In Wrocław they already decided that they will have coalition with Greens, as far as I remember also they will have some coalition in Warsaw. But probably they will start only in the biggest cities and they do not have chances to win anything anywhere to be honest.
That's a pity, it would be nice to get a few people trained up and entrenched for the next Sejm election.

And/or to see a few young idealists watch their dreams die before their eyes in the face of Polish local government.
Another issue is that the party leadership has chosen to focus on the elections to the sejmiks (fearing that if Razem skipped the sejmiks elections they'd be seen as winding down and a wasted vote) which a lot of party members aren't happy with because 1) they think it's a waste of time, 2) in some places there aren't even enough potential paper candidates, and 3) a lot of them are/were urban activists who don't care about the sejmiks and were hoping to devote their energies to city councils where it'd be less impossible to get elected. About half of Razem Kielce (Razem Kielce are surprisingly active but also infamous in Razem for constantly getting in petty fights over policy and resources and are basically despised by the rest of the party) seems to have left the party in a huff over this.
That sounds like a fun situation. Almost makes it seem even more as if they're a wasted vote and/or winding down.
The 'plan' seems to be:
1) half-ass the locals, try to make sure the party actually registers as more than an asterisk on the exit poll
2) hope we can hold our 3% until 2019
3) Huh
4) PROFIT!

Personally? I'm counting the days until Robert Biedroń or Barbara Nowacka launch something, even if they are way to my right.
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ionx
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« Reply #33 on: March 01, 2018, 02:03:09 PM »

The newest opinion poll from Warsaw, including 2 possible candidates nominated by PiS: Patryk Jaki (Deputy Minister of Justice, MP/Solidary Poland) and Stanisław Karczewski (Marshal of the Senate/PiS). The results are rather unsatisfying for them.

WITH JAKI:
First round
Trzaskowski-PO: 48.5%
Jaki-PiS: 33.9%
Tyszka-K'15: 3.8%
Śpiewak-*: 2.1%
Korwin-Mikke-WOL: 1.3%
Zandberg-RAZ: 1.3%
Wierzbicki-SLD: 0.8%
Stefaniak-PSL: 0.4%
Guział-**: 0.4%
Don't know/not decided yet: 8.0%
Second round
Trzaskowski-PO: 53.1%
Jaki-PiS: 41.2%
Don't know/not decided yet: 3.9%
Wouldn't participate in a II Turn: 1.8%
WITH KARCZEWSKI:
First round
Trzaskowski-PO: 49.6%
Karczewski-PiS: 24.3%
Tyszka-K'15: 6.2%
Śpiewak-*: 3.3%
Zandberg-RAZ: 2.9%
Korwin-Mikke-WOL: 2.3%
Wierzbicki-SLD: 1.3%
Stefaniak-PSL: 0.9%
Guział-**: 0.9%
Don't know/not decided yet: 8.3%
Second round
Trzaskowski-PO: 53.1%
Karczewski-PiS: 37.7%
Don't know/not decided yet: 5.3%
Wouldn't participate in a II Turn: 3.9%

* - local activist
** - former mayor of Ursynów (a district of Warsaw); Movement for Social Justice

So, if Trzaskowski won't make any huge mistakes, the victory for him should be quite easy. I don't think that the candidates which represent smaller parties will get such a low support, but presumably they won't achieve anything worth attention. Therefore Warsaw will be probably kept by PO. And electoral victories like that might have quite a big impact on the image of PO, .N, SLD and other opposition parties.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #34 on: March 01, 2018, 06:13:47 PM »
« Edited: March 01, 2018, 07:49:53 PM by Heat »

Incidentally, a former PO aide has accused Trzaskowski of, er, taking cocaine, having an affair, and attending orgies in Brussels while an MEP, as well as taking secret campaign contributions from businessmen. Trzaskowski obviously denies everything, says he will sue, and claims that said aide is mentally ill.

Eight more months of this nonsense to go.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #35 on: March 01, 2018, 08:03:59 PM »

Also I'd like to remind everybody that Trzaskowski is an MP for Kraków (although he's a Warsaw native who was parachuted onto the Kraków list) and Patryk Jaki is an MP for Opole who was a local councillor in Opole before being elected to the Sejm.

For the two foreigners reading this thread - no, Polish political parties do not care about parachutes at all.
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Mazda
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« Reply #36 on: March 01, 2018, 09:07:01 PM »

Also I'd like to remind everybody that Trzaskowski is an MP for Kraków (although he's a Warsaw native who was parachuted onto the Kraków list) and Patryk Jaki is an MP for Opole who was a local councillor in Opole before being elected to the Sejm.

For the two foreigners reading this thread - no, Polish political parties do not care about parachutes at all.
Hmm, that's disappointing to hear, I think Lech Kaczynski would have found one quite useful.

Presumably this guy from the Movement for Social Justice is... not very socially just?
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #37 on: March 01, 2018, 10:20:26 PM »
« Edited: March 01, 2018, 10:32:00 PM by Heat »

Also I'd like to remind everybody that Trzaskowski is an MP for Kraków (although he's a Warsaw native who was parachuted onto the Kraków list) and Patryk Jaki is an MP for Opole who was a local councillor in Opole before being elected to the Sejm.

For the two foreigners reading this thread - no, Polish political parties do not care about parachutes at all.
Hmm, that's disappointing to hear, I think Lech Kaczynski would have found one quite useful.

Presumably this guy from the Movement for Social Justice is... not very socially just?
Piotr Guział is a really, really hilarious character. He started out in SLD, then went through a few splinters before ending up in a local party, wherein he became mayor of Ursynów through a deal with PiS. He then started trying to expand said local party to the rest of Warsaw, absorbing people ranging from the centre-left to the hard-right in the process. He organised a referendum to recall Warsaw mayor Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, but this failed due to insufficient turnout. It did, however, serve as excellent self-promotion for his 2014 campaign for mayor, where he came third and got himself elected to the city council.

He later ended up part of a clique of local politicians from across the country who wanted to use Kukiz as a way to break into the Sejm, but Kukiz realised they were trying to manipulate him and kicked them all out. (This would have been fine had he not subsequently replaced them with creepy fascists from the National Movement) Guział's response was to join the Movement for Social Justice, a micro-party run by former MP and ex-Trot turned anti-eviction activist Piotr Ikonowicz, a man famous for being really, really principled and therefore impossible to work with. Why they're working together is, well, a ing mystery.

Also, he once claimed that a rape victim who had been pressured by local policemen into withdrawing her testimony had to be a lying feminist because the same local policemen had curiously failed to find the culprit, and it's rumoured that his campaigns are secretly financed by shady businessmen.

So now that I think of it, he's basically the Platonic ideal of a Polish politician.
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« Reply #38 on: March 02, 2018, 04:01:26 AM »

Does Palikot stil participate in politics?
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #39 on: March 02, 2018, 04:20:50 AM »

Does Palikot stil participate in politics?


Fortunately no.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #40 on: March 05, 2018, 11:54:28 AM »

Somebody has commissioned a poll showing that Robert Biedroń would receive 16% of the vote if he ran for mayor of Warsaw.

Robert Biedroń is currently mayor of Słupsk.
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ionx
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« Reply #41 on: March 05, 2018, 02:41:58 PM »

Well, I don't see many opportunities for Biedroń in Warsaw. That would be an interesting portfolio tho:
- born in a Subcarpathian village
- elected to the parliament by gaining enough votes in an electoral district located in Gdynia [2011]
- won the mayoral election in Słupsk [2014]
- trying to participate in the election in Warsaw? [2018]

Actually, Biedroń running in Warsaw could play an interesting role. If we deduct the support for Biedroń from the support for Trzaskowski, assuming that Jaki will be the PiS nominee, the results would be as the following:
Jaki-PiS: 33.9%
Trzaskowski-PO: 32.5%
Biedroń-IN: 16%
Other candidates: 10.1%

How does it influence the results? Not very much, but it gives a feeling that PiS is the strongest party, which could be used as a "proof" of the "dominance" of PiS in Poland. Also, it's possible that if such a situation happened, Biedroń would be concentrated on gaining support from Trzaskowski, which would have to lead to internal conflicts. Will Biedroń run? Fortunately, I doubt. He hasn't got much to offer, Trzaskowski has already presented a platform including the standard issues Biedroń talks about (equality, women's rights, progress...), so it wouldn't be the smartest move Biedroń could make.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #42 on: March 05, 2018, 02:55:32 PM »

Well, I don't see many opportunities for Biedroń in Warsaw. That would be an interesting portfolio tho:
- born in a Subcarpathian village
- elected to the parliament by gaining enough votes in an electoral district located in Gdynia [2011]
- won the mayoral election in Słupsk [2014]
- trying to participate in the election in Warsaw? [2018]

Actually, Biedroń running in Warsaw could play an interesting role. If we deduct the support for Biedroń from the support for Trzaskowski, assuming that Jaki will be the PiS nominee, the results would be as the following:
Jaki-PiS: 33.9%
Trzaskowski-PO: 32.5%
Biedroń-IN: 16%
Other candidates: 10.1%

How does it influence the results? Not very much, but it gives a feeling that PiS is the strongest party, which could be used as a "proof" of the "dominance" of PiS in Poland. Also, it's possible that if such a situation happened, Biedroń would be concentrated on gaining support from Trzaskowski, which would have to lead to internal conflicts. Will Biedroń run? Fortunately, I doubt. He hasn't got much to offer, Trzaskowski has already presented a platform including the standard issues Biedroń talks about (equality, women's rights, progress...), so it wouldn't be the smartest move Biedroń could make.
I mean, it won't happen, it would be utterly idiotic. I only posted it because it's funny. However the fact that the poll even exists is IMO proof that Biedroń is definitely being pushed towards running for president in 2020.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #43 on: March 09, 2018, 08:07:33 PM »

Speaking of Biedroń, here's an actual Słupsk poll by IBRiS:

Robert Biedroń (independent, incumbent mayor): 54%
Piotr Muller (PiS, deputy minister of science): 14%
Beata Chrzanowska (PO, leader of Słupsk city council): 10%
Andrzej Twardowski (Słupsk Citizens' Alliance, local businessman and candidate in 2014): 4.5%
Undecided: 14.5%
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #44 on: March 15, 2018, 06:28:25 AM »
« Edited: March 15, 2018, 06:50:41 AM by Heat »

Poznań poll by WTK:

Jacek Jaśkowiak (PO, incumbent mayor): 44.6%
Bartłomiej Wróblewski (PiS, MP for Poznań): 24.5%
Jarosław Pucek (independent, former director of the Poznań social housing management company): 10.5%
Tomasz Lewandowski (Polish Initiative, ex-SLD, councillor and deputy mayor): 10.2%
Dorota Bonk-Hammermeister (Right to the City association, local activist): 0.9%
Undecided: 9.3%

Jaśkowiak is a former activist who ran for mayor in 2010 for a local citizens' movement and then allowed himself to be recruited by PO in 2014. He is on the extreme left fringe of PO (so basically a typical Western left-liberal) and Poznań PO, which is rather conservative, recruited him mainly to show how 'big-tent' they are while expecting him to get crushed by the conservative incumbent Ryszard Grobelny. This... didn't exactly happen - Grobelny ran a very complacent campaign and some more controversial city projects as well as the perception that he was beholden to the Catholic Church came back to haunt him, and Jaśkowiak won convincingly 59-41.

Jaśkowiak has focused on improving public transport and adding more bike lanes as opposed to Grobelny's more pro-car policies, this has not been without controversy, and his open social liberalism has also grated on some. As such, this election is likely to be quite 'culture-warry', so to speak.
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ionx
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« Reply #45 on: March 15, 2018, 01:42:04 PM »

Polish Initiative can field and support several interesting candidates like Biedroń and Nowacka, but except Biedroń the best they can achieve is 2 or 3 third places in some big cities' presidential elections. They will presumably have big problems with candidates in smaller cities, to city councils, not even talking about rural areas. Also, even though Robert Biedroń or Barbara Nowacka might mean something for an average Pole, i doubt that many people know about "Polish Initiative". Well, the left probably won't achieve much - the Greens, Razem, Polish Initiative and SLD running separately will neither satisfy their voters, nor make them stronger.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #46 on: March 15, 2018, 02:52:30 PM »
« Edited: March 15, 2018, 02:56:55 PM by Heat »

Polish Initiative can field and support several interesting candidates like Biedroń and Nowacka, but except Biedroń the best they can achieve is 2 or 3 third places in some big cities' presidential elections. They will presumably have big problems with candidates in smaller cities, to city councils, not even talking about rural areas. Also, even though Robert Biedroń or Barbara Nowacka might mean something for an average Pole, i doubt that many people know about "Polish Initiative". Well, the left probably won't achieve much - the Greens, Razem, Polish Initiative and SLD running separately will neither satisfy their voters, nor make them stronger.
As far as I know, basically all of Poznań SLD has crossed over to Polish Initiative and Lewandowski is a fairly strong figure - their problem is Jaśkowiak, who is probably acceptable to most left-wing voters. Agreed however that they, and the left in general, don't have a chance in most places.

Nowacka's strategy seems to be to build up support by counting on the media to hype her up personally, which admittedly did work for PO (does anyone even remember Olechowski now?) and PiS, but it didn't work very well for Palikot or Petru.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #47 on: March 16, 2018, 11:21:14 AM »

PO and .N have announced the creation of the 'Together for Szczecin' coalition to run in the elections in, er, Szczecin. The high-profile PO MP (and ex-Korwinista, lol) Sławomir Nitras will be their candidate for mayor and some guy from .N I've never heard of before will be candidate for deputy mayor.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #48 on: March 16, 2018, 11:44:10 AM »

PO and .N have announced the creation of the 'Together for Szczecin' coalition to run in the elections in, er, Szczecin. The high-profile PO MP (and ex-Korwinista, lol) Sławomir Nitras will be their candidate for mayor and some guy from .N I've never heard of before will be candidate for deputy mayor.


I like how Corbyn and Korwin have the same etymology.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
Heat
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« Reply #49 on: March 16, 2018, 12:14:47 PM »

PO and .N have announced the creation of the 'Together for Szczecin' coalition to run in the elections in, er, Szczecin. The high-profile PO MP (and ex-Korwinista, lol) Sławomir Nitras will be their candidate for mayor and some guy from .N I've never heard of before will be candidate for deputy mayor.


I like how Corbyn and Korwin have the same etymology.
Both are old men with very good facial hair whose once-fringe politics have surprising appeal to the youth, after all.
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