Polish Politics and Elections

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

FIRST WAVE EXIT POLL FROM PALADE:

PiS 47.1
PO 26.3
Left 12.8
PSL 7.7
Confederation 5.3

Are the seat allocation pure PR or d'hondt?

D'Hondt.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

FIRST WAVE EXIT POLL FROM PALADE:

PiS 47.1
PO 26.3
Left 12.8
PSL 7.7
Confederation 5.3

Are the seat allocation pure PR or d'hondt?

D'Hondt.

Could some of you guys, that actually understand this mess, give us an estimate regarding seat distrubution?

[jaichind]

FIRST WAVE EXIT POLL FROM PALADE:

PiS 47.1
PO 26.3
Left 12.8
PSL 7.7
Confederation 5.3

Are the seat allocation pure PR or d'hondt?

D'Hondt.

Could some of you guys, that actually understand this mess, give us an estimate regarding seat distrubution?

PIS 231
PO 129
Left 63
PSL 37

Very narrow majority for PiS

[urutzizu]

Its 41 Individual Constituencies so the PIS number should be quite a bit higher perhaps 250. Lewica and PSL should be quite a bit lower. Also why is Korwin not in your Calculation?

[jaichind]

Its 41 Individual Constituencies so the PIS number should be quite a bit higher perhaps 250. Lewica and PSL should be quite a bit lower. Also why is Korwin not in your Calculation?

Ah. So not all 460 are allocated by PR.  As for Confederation I thought threshold for alliance is 7%

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Its 41 Individual Constituencies so the PIS number should be quite a bit higher perhaps 250. Lewica and PSL should be quite a bit lower. Also why is Korwin not in your Calculation?

Ah. So not all 460 are allocated by PR.  As for Confederation I thought threshold for alliance is 7%

8%, and they are single party electoral committee so 5%.

[urutzizu]

Lewica and PSL+ are running on a single list of one party even though they are multiple. So its 5% for them if I understand correctly. Also for Korwin who is one Party.

[jaichind]

Ok.  One more try then

PIS 220
PO 122
Left 59
PSL 35
Confderation 24

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

More people than usual casting doubt on the leaked numbers, not sure if they're just getting excited or if there's something to it. But if they're accurate, the seat numbers should be something like PiS 250-ish, PO 130-ish, SLD 50-ish, PSL 20-ish, Confederation <10.

Its 41 Individual Constituencies so the PIS number should be quite a bit higher perhaps 250. Lewica and PSL should be quite a bit lower. Also why is Korwin not in your Calculation?

Ah. So not all 460 are allocated by PR.  As for Confederation I thought threshold for alliance is 7%

All 460 are allocated by PR, but the country is divided into 41 constituencies. And the Confederation is an alliance, but they've formed a shell party to get around the 8% threshold for formal coalitions.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Confderation 24

At 5.3%, this isn't even possible under the Polish electoral system.

[jaichind]

Confderation 24

At 5.3%, this isn't even possible under the Polish electoral system.

I am not clear.  Is Confederation considered at party or list

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Confderation 24

At 5.3%, this isn't even possible under the Polish electoral system.

I am not clear.  Is Confederation considered at party or list

They're running as a party.

[kaoras]

Confderation 24

At 5.3%, this isn't even possible under the Polish electoral system.

I am not clear.  Is Confederation considered at party or list

Is not a nationwide PR list, there are multiple districts, each with x number seats. So, with 5% Confederation would only get seats in the biggers districts. You can look at results in Spain or Portugal to get and idea (though Spain is a more extreme version)

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Confderation 24

At 5.3%, this isn't even possible under the Polish electoral system.

I am not clear.  Is Confederation considered at party or list

They're an informal alliance who have registered a new shell party so they can be subject to the 5% threshold and not the 8% one, and receive a state subsidy. The Polish electoral system is D'Hondt with relatively small regional districts, meaning a score around the 5% threshold for a party whose support is not concentrated anywhere (as is the case for the Confederation) can only get them a very small number of seats.

[jaichind]

Confderation 24

At 5.3%, this isn't even possible under the Polish electoral system.

I am not clear.  Is Confederation considered at party or list

Is not a nationwide PR list, there are multiple districts, each with x number seats. So, with 5% Confederation would only get seats in the biggers districts. You can look at results in Spain or Portugal to get and idea (though Spain is a more extreme version)

Got it. Thanks for this.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

To recap, PiS, SLD, PSL and Confederation all have party lists, with other parties receiving spots. KO is the only major coalition committee running, and thus subjected to 8%

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Btw, I didn't vote in Warsaw after all, but in the Siedlce-Ostrołęka district, where my mom moved and I've decided to stay until November. Voted for Lewica for Sejm and PSL candidate for Senate (my first Senate vote since 2007 and first vote for that formation ever).

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Another leak from Palade:

PiS 45.7
PO 27.3
SLD 12.1
PSL 8.1
Confederation 6.0

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

PSL is doing pretty well.

[bigic]

PSL is doing pretty well.

Tactical opposition voters due to fear that PSL won't cross the threshold?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

PSL is doing pretty well.

Tactical opposition voters due to fear that PSL won't cross the threshold?

That doesn't really happen in particularly large numbers in Poland. They seemed to have a bit of momentum in the final week and their leader is fairly popular, but this is a surprise.

Of course, Palade could be wrong.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

PSL is doing pretty well.

Tactical opposition voters due to fear that PSL won't cross the threshold?

They're running with what's left of Kukiz, probably bolstering their numbers.

And yes, I love the irony: the great anti-establishment fighter Kukiz ending up in bed with the most establishment of all parties.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

PSL is doing pretty well.

Tactical opposition voters due to fear that PSL won't cross the threshold?

Rather Kukiz voters + some of the centre-right conservative-liberals who used to support Gwiazdowski + traditional PSL electorate.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

PSL is doing pretty well.

Tactical opposition voters due to fear that PSL won't cross the threshold?

Rather Kukiz voters + some of the centre-right conservative-liberals who used to support Gwiazdowski + traditional PSL electorate.

Traditional PSL electorate has been shrinking in recent years, so they probably needed additional numbers. PSL was traditionally a farmers' party and I've read recently that only about 10% of people from the rural areas actually lives off the land.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

And yes, I love the irony: the great anti-establishment fighter Kukiz ending up in bed with the most establishment of all parties.

It makes a bit more sense when you consider that both want politics to be nothing more than horse-trading among a few local politicians and businessmen - it's PSL's preferred model after all, and it's what first-past-the-post/JOW would likely result in if implemented in the Sejm.