Polish Politics and Elections

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

No indication the electoral silence is going to be prolonged, so we're 29 minutes away from polls closing.

[Walmart_shopper]

Another leak from Palade:

PiS 45.7
PO 27.3
SLD 12.1
PSL 8.1
Confederation 6.0

That would be around 240 seats for PiS, and a solid majority. But I think the late numbers are quite a lot worse than the early ones.

[Keep Calm and ...]

IPSOS / TVP

PiS - 43,6% - 239 mandatów
KO - 27,4% - 130 mandatów
Lewica - 11,9% - 43 mandaty
PSL - 9,6% - 34 mandaty
Konfederacja - 6,4% - 13 mandatów
Frekwencja 61.1%

https://www.tvp.info/44820915/polacy-glosuja-wybory-parlamentarne-2019-relacja

[windjammer]

I expected far worse

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Projected majority: 9 seats (my bet is it'll be more, but nowhere near a big one)

As of turnout: wow!

[Walmart_shopper]

How quickly do results come in?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

How quickly do results come in?

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/69/Grapevinesnail_01.jpg

[bigic]

I hope PiS loses majority. But I'm not so hopeful if the balance of power will be held by Konfederacja...

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

How quickly do results come in?

Better to go to bed.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I should add at this point that the pollster conducting this exit poll has made major errors for the last two elections, so the final result may be significantly different. The exit poll for the local elections overestimated PSL by a full 4 points and the one for the EP elections underestimated PiS by 3 points and had the Confederation at 6% (which caused much schadenfreude when it turned out the next day they'd actually gotten 4.6%)

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

According to this uncertain exit poll, PiS won in all but two voivodeships, except Pomorskie and Lubuskie, though in Lubuskie PiS is within less than one percent.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The full exit poll can be found here - https://www.tvn24.pl/wybory-parlamentarne-2019/sondaz,475

If the demographic breakdowns are accurate, 6% of voters in the largest cities voted PSL and 9% of 2015 PO voters and 9% of 2015 Nowoczesna voters have switched to them. It would be hilarious if the constant drumbeat of OPPOSITION UNITY against the hordes of blood-sucking rurals accidentally legitimised the most rural party of them all in the eyes of urban liberals.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Late poll at 24, there are info that there were 15% of people who refused to give answer while being questioned by company preparing exit poll. So there might be changes from other reason that IPSOS is sh**tty.

[jaichind]

Late poll at 23, there are info that there were 15% of people who refused to give answer while being questioned by company preparing exit poll. So there might be changes from other reason that IPSOS is sh**tty.

Will this be based on exit poll and some partial count?

[bigic]

It would be hilarious if the constant drumbeat of OPPOSITION UNITY against the hordes of blood-sucking rurals accidentally legitimised the most rural party of them all in the eyes of urban liberals.

Tactical opposition voters due to fear that PSL won't cross the threshold?

[SnowLabrador]

Not normally one to post in the International Elections thread, but man is this devastating. How does the world's population love the right so much?

[Oryxslayer]

Not normally one to post in the International Elections thread, but man is this devastating. How does the world's population love the right so much?

The former Warsaw pact countries has had corrupt and morally despicable pseudo-authoritarian parties of power govern for nearly 100 years now, the traditions and expectations have not changed even as the faces do.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Late poll at 23, there are info that there were 15% of people who refused to give answer while being questioned by company preparing exit poll. So there might be changes from other reason that IPSOS is sh**tty.

Will this be based on exit poll and some partial count?

Probably.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Not normally one to post in the International Elections thread, but man is this devastating. How does the world's population love the right so much?

The former Warsaw pact countries has had corrupt and morally despicable pseudo-authoritarian parties of power govern for nearly 100 years now, the traditions and expectations have not changed even as the faces do.

I wouldn't call PiS corrupt and that generalization about Central Europe is just plainly stupid and inaccurate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Still no official results counted at all?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Still no official results counted at all?

Not in Poland, we do not do such things.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Ok, late poll is late apparently. Partial results will be announced Monday at 10 in the morning (local time)

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Starting to think Ipsos screwed up the exit poll pretty badly and now don't know what to make of the late poll.

Also, there are now four or five different estimates for PiS' seat count made by people who should know what they're talking about floating around Polish Twitter because no one can make the sums work for 239. None of them are higher than 234 seats.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

LATE POLL (changes from exit poll in brackets):

PiS 43.6 (-)
PO 27.4 (-)
SLD 12.4 (+0.5)
PSL 9.1 (-0.5)
KONF 6.4 (-)

Now this is a bit odd.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Oh, it seems German Minority (MN) will retain its one MP.

For those unfamiliar, national minority committees are exempted from a 5% nationwide threshold, and only need to exceed 5% in their districts. The MN is running in Opole only.