Polish Politics and Elections

[rob in cal]

  Did the German minority representative take a pro PiS stance in the last parliament?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

 Did the German minority representative take a pro PiS stance in the last parliament?

Gods no. PiS tend to think of the German minority as an intruder and an enemy within.

[PetrSokol]

Do you think after release of 71,89 % of locals that PiS will retain the majority?

[Ebsy]

Looks up in the air to me. PiS has declined quite a bit as counting has continued, if the last 28% is particularly bad for them the majority may be out of reach. Also, the outcome in the Senate is still in doubt.

[Walmart_shopper]

Do you think after release of 71,89 % of locals that PiS will retain the majority?

They're at almost 46 percent right now, which should be more than enough for a parliamentary majority. But counting isn't done yet, so who knows. I suspect they'll be fine.

[Walmart_shopper]

Looks up in the air to me. PiS has declined quite a bit as counting has continued, if the last 28% is particularly bad for them the majority may be out of reach. Also, the outcome in the Senate is still in doubt.

Do we know where the votes are still left to be counted?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

82.79% counted, still less in Warsaw but in some rural areas also so I guess we will have pretty similar result compared to what is now:

PiS: 45,2%
KO: 26,1%
SLD: 12,1%
PSL: 8,8%
KON: 6,7%

[Former President tack50]

So PiS narrowly loses its majority and will depend on Korwin for support? On one hand good that they lost, but Korwin is even worse (other than for memes)

[jaichind]

91.92% counted

PiS: 44.38%
KO: 26.77%
SLD: 12.34%
PSL: 8.63%
KON: 6.76%

The exit polls of PiS at 43.6 gave it very close to majority I assume this is enough for PiS for a narrow majority.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

So PiS narrowly loses its majority and will depend on Korwin for support? On one hand good that they lost, but Korwin is even worse (other than for memes)

They didn't "lose". Even if PiS ends up narrowly short of majority, they'll still most likely form a government, because even all other parties put together wouldn't be able to form one. Certainly can't see Konfederacja being in the same government with the rest.

PiS is dissapointed, because despite having it's best result ever, they failed to increase their number of seats (with all other parties entering the next Sejm, d'Hondt didn't help like the last time), but they're still having four more years.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Few important info:

1) Gowin and Ziobro who have their own parties but re allied to PiS and were participatin in this elections from PiS lists got ca. 30 MPs. So Kaczyński must not be happy. PiS probably will have majority but it will depend on not sure from PiS perspective people.

2) Opposition can take the Senate. It will not stop PiS legislation but it can slow down a little bit the tempo.

[jaichind]

Almost 94% of the Senate vote has been counted.  What are the seat leads count by party?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Almost 94% of the Senate vote has been counted.  What are the seat leads count by party?

Senate is elected with FPTP, as for now is 48-48.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What's the deal with Barbara Nowacka's Polish Initiative? Why didn't they join the SLD-Razem-Wiosna alliance?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Almost 94% of the Senate vote has been counted.  What are the seat leads count by party?

Senate is elected with FPTP, as for now is 48-48.

Before 2011 we've had multi-member Senate constituencies, with between two to four top vote-getters (depending on district's size) getting elected, but thanks to PO we now have single member constituencies.

Luckily this time the opposition (largely) got their act together and in many districts worked to endorse just one candidate.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Lol, Jaruzelska not only lost her Senate race in Warsaw, she also finished third.

All because of the petty people who didn't want her run for Sejm! (source: Leszek Miller FB page)

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

What's the deal with Barbara Nowacka's Polish Initiative? Why didn't they join the SLD-Razem-Wiosna alliance?

Because they thought that deal with PO will give them more MPs. And she generally broke with the rest of the left long time ago so this wasn't even a question.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

What's the deal with Barbara Nowacka's Polish Initiative? Why didn't they join the SLD-Razem-Wiosna alliance?

Because they thought that deal with PO will give them more MPs. And she generally broke with the rest of the left long time ago so this wasn't even a question.

Which was likely why the Greens (or rather those who remained there) stuck with KO.

IPL is essentially socially liberal version of PO/.N.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

What's the deal with Barbara Nowacka's Polish Initiative? Why didn't they join the SLD-Razem-Wiosna alliance?

She strung the left along claiming she just wanted it to unite and then went with what was most likely to get her into the Sejm. Like mother, like daughter  - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_the_Left_(Poland) .

[jaichind]

99.49% counted

PiS: 43.76%
KO: 27.24%
SLD: 12.52%
PSL: 8.58%
KON: 6.79%

Which means the adjusted exit polls were almost spot on

[VPH]

What are the different factions within PiS? I saw an article about the "new" voters and "old" voters for the party, and that made me curious.

[Walmart_shopper]

I saw that university students dosproportionately voted for the left and, alas, the far right. Does anyone have data on how all young people and not just university students voted?

[Astatine]

Senate flipped from PiS control to opposition control:

PiS: 48 (-13)
KO: 43 (+9)
Independents: 4 (+/-0)
PSL: 3 (+2)
SLD: 2 (+2)

Of the four independents, three were supported by KO and one by PiS.

[Keep Calm and ...]

I saw that university students dosproportionately voted for the left and, alas, the far right. Does anyone have data on how all young people and not just university students voted?

All exit poll datas:
https://www.tvn24.pl/wybory-parlamentarne-2019/sondaz,475

You have to scroll down to "DEMOGRAFIA" click on "ZMIEN" and "WIEK
18 - 29 lat"

[Keep Calm and ...]

The greens (as part of the Civic Coalition (KO)) gain 3 seats.

https://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,25306817,zieloni-po-raz-pierwszy-w-historii-wchodza-do-sejmu.html?disableRedirects=true