Polish Politics and Elections

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

What different turnout patterns are these? Lower turnout among PiS supporters than among .N/PO supporters, PiS supporters voting for PSL/locals in local/voivodship elections, both...?

There's a tendency for turnout in local elections to be higher in rural areas and small towns than in parliamentary elections and lower in bigger cities. This tends to reward parties that, depending on how you choose to look at it, either have a stronger-than-average grassroots presence or rely on clientelistic/machine politics.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

A fair bit of Trzaskowski ramping on Twitter now. Wouldn't normally put much stock in it, but considering there are also reports of record turnout in Warsaw...

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Turnout 41.7% as of 5pm

Was 39.3% at 5:30pm in 2014

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

A fair bit of Trzaskowski ramping on Twitter now. Wouldn't normally put much stock in it, but considering there are also reports of record turnout in Warsaw...

Turnout in Warsaw was 47% at 5pm, whereas in 2014 by the time the polls closed it was 47.3%. No way of knowing who this is benefiting but it's not impossible that PO+.N could win easily there while still doing badly across the country.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Pollster Marcin Palade (who seemed to have accurate leaks in 2015) just tweeted PiS 35 PO+.N 23 PSL 16 Independent Self-government lists 7, Kukiz 6, SLD 5.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Independent Self-government lists 7

I should probably explain this btw - these are basically a load of vaguely centre-right local notables from across the country (mainly from Lower Silesia, but no longer limited to that region) who are trying to insert themselves into governing coalitions and therefore extract more money from the government by claiming to be 'non-partisan' and therefore Better Than You in order to fool low-information voters.

In case it's not obvious yet, I hate them with a passion.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Pollster Marcin Palade (who seemed to have accurate leaks in 2015) just tweeted PiS 35 PO+.N 23 PSL 16 Independent Self-government lists 7, Kukiz 6, SLD 5.

I assume this would be a very good result for PiS? What caused them to win by so much in 2015, and how have they managed to remain relatively popular ever since? To me as an outsider it's almost as if Poland has turned into another country compared to the times of PO rule, but I'm obviously aware that the information I receive is biased and limited.

35% would be the highest share ever won by a Polish party in a local election, so it would be an objectively great result. The previous record was 33% by AWS in 1998 and that was an altogether different time where the voting public was relatively polarised between AWS and SLD and the various local machines who now make up the 'non-partisan' 'local' lists that pop up every so often were still often just local branches of AWS. The question is how that 35% is distributed. PiS needed to win majorities in as many voivodeships as possible to avoid being locked out for lack of coalition partners - Kukiz is their natural ally but if he's at 6% nationwide then there are probably many places where he has failed to win enough seats to be of any use, while coalitions with the Independent Self-government lists are possible but cannot be taken for granted. PSL is probably no longer an option for them because PiS ran very hard against them in this election in order to build on their near-destruction in 2015, and SLD isn't going to happen despite Kaczynski's last-minute offer.

Your second question requires a longer answer than I'm able to give at the moment.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Turnout 51.3

PiS 32.3
PO+.N 24.7
PSL 16.6
Independent Self-government: 6.3
Kukiz 6.3
SLD 5.7
Korwin 1.5
Razem 1.4
National Movement 1.2
Greens 1.0

Cities:
Warsaw: Rafał Trzaskowski – 54,1%, Patryk Jaki – 30,9%
Gdańsk: Paweł Adamowicz (PO genepool indo) – 36,7%, Kacper Płażyński (PiS) – 32,3%, Jarosław Wałęsa (PO+.N) – 25,3%
Kraków: Jacek Majchrowski – 43,7%, Małgorzata Wassermann – 33,6%
Łódź: Hanna Zdanowska (PO+.N+SLD) – 70,1%, Waldemar Buda (PiS) – 24,2%
Wrocław: Jacek Sutryk (PO+.N+SLD) – 50,1%, Mirosława Stachowiak-Różecka (PiS) – 27,8%
Poznań: Jacek Jaśkowiak (PO+.N) – 56,2%, Tadeusz Zysk (PiS)– 22,2%

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

So, in conclusion:

- PiS gets to claim victory because they've managed the biggest local election victory since 1998.
- PO+.N get to claim victory because they'll almost certainly keep all their high-profile mayoralties and may be able to keep PiS out of power in many voivodeships.
- PSL gets to claim victory because their  vote held up stunningly well considering their 2015 collapse and PiS hauling out the big guns against them this time round.
- Kukiz gets to claim victory because he didn't completely flop and has instead proved that he has at least some grassroots presence.
- Robert Biedroń gets to claim victory because he probably got his anointed successor elected in the first round in Słupsk and because SLD, Razem, and the Greens all flopped in this election he gets to step in as the centre-left saviour who will fix everything. (I suspect Razem will crawl under his wing entirely soon, and if they don't a lot of their members will. The Greens will be drunk off their 1% and flop hilariously next year.)
- Korwin can't claim victory. And honestly, nobody really cares.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Late poll: PiS - 33%., PO+.N - 26,7%., PSL - 13,6%., SLD - 6,6%, Kukiz - 5,9%., Independent Self-government - 5,8%., Korwin - 1,5%., Razem - 1,5%., RN - 1,3%., Greens - 1,1%

Latest Electoral Commission data shows turnout at 54.1%, which would be the highest turnout in the history of Polish local elections and higher than the 53.9% record turnout in the 2007 parliamentary elections. We don't have detailed results yet but I suspect the reason for this high turnout is the same as 2007 as well - the 'defend our local government from PiS' message PO+.N were hammering home and PiS' turn away from the centre near the end of the campaign with incredibly crass anti-immigrant ads and threats to cut off central government funding to cities that didn't elect PiS mayors got urban voters to turn out in droves, which led to PO+.N landslides in the major cities and prevented a bone-crushing PiS landslide in the voivodeship assemblies.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Interestingly, Kukiz has done well in some places in the South - MP Wojciech Bakun, who was running for mayor of Przemysl in Podkarpacie, has won 41% in the first round and Kukiz candidates have won 5 out of 23 seats on the city council, while in Nowy Sacz Kukiz-endorsed independent Ludomir Handzel has entered the second round with 27% and could beat PiS candidate Iwona Mularczyk who came first with 33% depending on how the other PiS genepool candidates' voters swing. I'm not really sure why this has happened, but it's a good sign for Kukiz that he seems to be gaining some sort of lasting local presence.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I see Olsztyn is, once again, crazytown. Incumbent PSL mayor Piotr Grzymowicz will face off against former mayor Czeslaw Malkowski in the second round for the third time in as many elections. This would be amusing if it weren't for the fact that Malkowski was recalled from office in 2008 after being accused of sexually harassing and raping municipal employees, has been under investigation/on trial since then, was finally convicted in 2015, and is currently appealing the sentence. He's been claiming the accusations are the result of a conspiracy against him, because of course he has.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I am too lazy to write about some crazy stuff but for example in my voivodship PiS candidate was the only candidate running in the mayoral elections. What is so crazy about that? She lost. Almost 70% of voters voted against her, because voting was in form for/against.

So what's the drill? Appointed commissioner?

Council gets to choose.

According to preliminary results, the composition of Swietokrzyskie Voivodeship Assembly may be 15 PiS, 11 PSL, 3 PO+.N, 1 SLD. Let the bribery commence!

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Opole Voivodeship Assembly has finished counting: PO+.N 13 (+4), PiS 10 (+5), German Minority 5 (-2), PSL 2 (-6), SLD 0 (-1). Surprisingly nothing for Kukiz - the notable home state effect he had in 2015 seemingly did not carry over to local elections.

Vote percentages are:

PO+.N 29.5 (+4.1)
PiS 25.8 (+9.0)
German Minority 14.6 (-0.3)
PSL 10.7 (-11.2)
Kukiz 6.1 (+6.1)
SLD 5.9 (-3.6)

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Still no official results for Silesia but it's sounding like the result will be PiS 22 (+6) PO+.N 20 (+3) SLD 2 (-1) PSL 1 (-4) Silesian Regional Party 0 (-4) PiS are one seat off a majority and should be locked out unless PSL (impossible after this campaign) or SLD ( knows at this point) decide to switch sides.

The Silesian Regionalists apparently lost almost half their vote to a splinter list. Because lol.

PiS have also declared outright victory in Malopolska.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Podlaskie Voivodeship Assembly official result: PiS 16 (+4) PO+.N 9 (+1) PSL 5 (-4) SLD 0 (-1)

No vote shares yet.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

According to preliminary results, the composition of Swietokrzyskie Voivodeship Assembly may be 15 PiS, 11 PSL, 3 PO+.N, 1 SLD. Let the bribery commence!

It's now looking like PiS may have actually won 17 seats, meaning the Jarubas machine has well and truly lost.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Boy, oh boy. Razem declared that they are ready to start talks with SLD (!!!) before Europarliamentary and parliamentary elections.

It also turns out that the National Executive (which in practice means Zandberg, Dziemianowicz-Bak, Konieczny and Zawisza), er, didn't tell anyone they were going to say that at the press conference. That's going to be fun.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The second round is today, which means we get to witness exciting and uplifting contests such as:

- Krakow and Gdansk: By how much will the obviously corrupt 'independent' PO-backed mayors of these cities crush their PiS opponents? I don't really want to know, Warsaw and Lodz were depressing enough for this.
- Olsztyn: For the third time in a row, the incumbent mayor will face his predecessor, who has been convicted of rape but somehow has almost half the city convinced he's the victim of a conspiracy. Will he be narrowly rejected again, or will Olsztyn make worldwide headlines for all the wrong reasons?
- Kielce: PiS-backed indo mayor Wojciech Lubawski is in the fight of his life against the former coach of the Polish national handball team.
- Przemysl: Will this town near the Ukrainian border elect the random Kukizoid anti-vaxxer or the PiS guy who's so desperate to win he had Kaczynski give a speech at one of his rallies saying the Ukrainians would invade if he didn't win? I'm rooting for the Kukizoid just because it'll be funnier.
- Nowy Sacz: Will the local PiS branch's incredible maniacal splintering destroy them and hand the mayoralty to muh fake moderate independent (endorsed by both the local libertarian nutters and local trade unionists, because Poland), or will the random schoolteacher PiS are running for no apparent reason somehow triumph?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

And thus it ends, not with a bang but with a whimper.

Kraków:
Jacek Majchrowski (incumbent, PO+.N+SLD+PSL) 64.6%
Małgorzata Wassermann (PiS) 35.4%

Gdańsk:
Paweł Adamowicz (incumbent, PO genepool indo) 64.7%
Kacper Płażyński (PiS) 35.3%

Kielce:
Bogdan Wenta (PO genepool indo) 64%
Wojciech Lubawski (incumbent, PiS genepool indo) 36%

lol

Nothing from Olsztyn, or Szczecin for that matter (but the incumbent there is guaranteed to win so it doesn't really matter).

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Kukiz candidate, MP Wojciech Bakun, has beaten the PiS candidate to become mayor of Przemysl by around 75-25. He is an anti-vaxxer, but more worryingly he is also obsessed with the supposed threat of Ukrainian nationalism and his council group will include two Sputnik News regular contributors and a local football hooligan.

Meanwhile, in Nowy Sacz, PiS candidate, local teacher Iwona Mularczyk, is getting demolished by fake moderate Ludomir Handzel, and in Olsztyn, rapist Czeslaw Malkowski is losing to incumbent Piotr Grzymowicz by around 60-40.

So, a mixed night.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

- Olsztyn: For the third time in a row, the incumbent mayor will face his predecessor, who has been convicted of rape but somehow has almost half the city convinced he's the victim of a conspiracy. Will he be narrowly rejected again, or will Olsztyn make worldwide headlines for all the wrong reasons?

The rapist lost 54-46 this time. Because the world is in fact a morality tale written by a heavy-handed hack, his two strongest polling districts, where he received 95% and 89% respectively, were both of the city's jails.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Does the failure of Kukiz to enter the EU parliament mean his moment has passed?

He's said to be negotiating a deal with PSL.

So yes.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

So, the current Messiah of the liberal left Robert Biedroń almost for sure decided that he will actually stay a MEP while he stated before that he will participate in the elections but not become a MEP (resign from the seat). What is more Biedroń poitical right hand and his partner Krzysztof Śmiszek stated that they are "thinking" about participating in the Sejm elections what might sound weird.


Other thing is great debate on the left if there should be "great" centre to left-wing coalition of Razem, SLD and Wiosna. The biggest problem there maybe not obviously for everyone, but still, is Wiosna.

I suspect that urban SLD branches discovering they quite like the idea of being effectively assimilated by PO and therefore permanently being in power is just as big an obstacle.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I haven't voted in Senate races since they introduced single-member seats. And now in my district (Warsaw-44) KO runs Ujazdowski, which makes me even less inclined to vote here.

I'm going to cast a protest vote for Kasprzak, even though he is solely the candidate of the activists and the Extremely Online and thus definitely isn't going to win, in the vain hope that a nice big number of votes for the 'fyck off Grzesiek, and take your wannabe Tories with you' option will get the opposition to wise up next time. It just feels a bit more constructive.