Polish Politics and Elections

[jaichind]

Any reason why PiS have such a lead in the national polls.  One would expect that by now anti-incumbency would have weight down on them.  Although I noticed that between 2007 and 2011 PO had large leads over PiS the entire time.  Is it part of the Polish political culture to give outsizes support to the ruling party in between elections ?

[jaichind]

In any case, the opposition almost seem to be doing everything to lose the election. Aside of every gaffe and misstep possible, they've given up on making any efforts aimed at the PiS' stronghold. Sure there's no chance they could win over rural/small town voters in general, but under the proportional system it's all about making a dent. In 2015 PiS made a dent in PO's "natural" base, in addition to maxing their base support. Sometimes they seem to be more worried about the possible left resurgence than PiS' landslide victory. Furthermore KO is taking their stronghold over "big cities" for granted, putting up the face of a party of prosperous and happy urbane middle class, which isn't that appealing to large segments of urban populations, struggling with various issues.

I've been spending a lot of time in the eastern Masovia recently, which is PiS' strongholds. KO and other opposition forces could've easily exploited the fact the situation in the rural areas didn't really improved since PiS came to power, just to gain some additional support, but they essentially conceded. And what's worse, they're proceeding with their "stupid rural people will vote PiS no matter what" narrative, which only mobilizes more support for PiS there.

PiS getting reelected with absolute majority is inevitable and the only issue is whether they can pull Orban and get a constitutional majority (something I can't entirely discount as implausible) or "just" regular majority.


Apologies for somewhat incoherent rant.

As great as this sounds one thing about this election which will be worse for me than 2015 is that it seems the Left will make it in this time versus 2015.    Hopefully the Confederation makes it in but that does not look like will be the case.  This does put a damper on things despite the clear United Right victory. 

[jaichind]

I'm just curious why you like the PiS. They are probably the most unlibertarian people on earth, and economically quite collectivist.

I admire their nationalism.  Of course if I could have a nationalist-libertarian force like KORWiN in change I will take them over PiS.  But I have to be realistic when the alternative is PO.  In fact I do not object to PO that much either.  The distribution of political forces  in Poland is among the best in the world in my opinion.  I really only object to The Left, the rest are just different shades of support.

[jaichind]

Polls close at 9pm right?  I recall there were leaked exit polls before 9pm back in 2015.  Will that be true this time?  Really looking forward to the results.

[jaichind]

FIRST WAVE EXIT POLL FROM PALADE:

PiS 47.1
PO 26.3
Left 12.8
PSL 7.7
Confederation 5.3

Are the seat allocation pure PR or d'hondt?

[jaichind]

FIRST WAVE EXIT POLL FROM PALADE:

PiS 47.1
PO 26.3
Left 12.8
PSL 7.7
Confederation 5.3

Are the seat allocation pure PR or d'hondt?

D'Hondt.

Could some of you guys, that actually understand this mess, give us an estimate regarding seat distrubution?

PIS 231
PO 129
Left 63
PSL 37

Very narrow majority for PiS

[jaichind]

Its 41 Individual Constituencies so the PIS number should be quite a bit higher perhaps 250. Lewica and PSL should be quite a bit lower. Also why is Korwin not in your Calculation?

Ah. So not all 460 are allocated by PR.  As for Confederation I thought threshold for alliance is 7%

[jaichind]

Ok.  One more try then

PIS 220
PO 122
Left 59
PSL 35
Confderation 24

[jaichind]

Confderation 24

At 5.3%, this isn't even possible under the Polish electoral system.

I am not clear.  Is Confederation considered at party or list

[jaichind]

Confderation 24

At 5.3%, this isn't even possible under the Polish electoral system.

I am not clear.  Is Confederation considered at party or list

Is not a nationwide PR list, there are multiple districts, each with x number seats. So, with 5% Confederation would only get seats in the biggers districts. You can look at results in Spain or Portugal to get and idea (though Spain is a more extreme version)

Got it. Thanks for this.

[jaichind]

Late poll at 23, there are info that there were 15% of people who refused to give answer while being questioned by company preparing exit poll. So there might be changes from other reason that IPSOS is sh**tty.

Will this be based on exit poll and some partial count?

[jaichind]

91.92% counted

PiS: 44.38%
KO: 26.77%
SLD: 12.34%
PSL: 8.63%
KON: 6.76%

The exit polls of PiS at 43.6 gave it very close to majority I assume this is enough for PiS for a narrow majority.

[jaichind]

Almost 94% of the Senate vote has been counted.  What are the seat leads count by party?

[jaichind]

99.49% counted

PiS: 43.76%
KO: 27.24%
SLD: 12.52%
PSL: 8.58%
KON: 6.79%

Which means the adjusted exit polls were almost spot on

[jaichind]

Exit polls

Duda           41.8
Trzaskowski  30.4
 

Mostly match pre-election polls

[jaichind]

Duda has to consolidate the Bosak vote and hope that the Hołownia vote does not turn out in the second round.  Overall Duda matching pre-election polls despite an unfavorable turnout pattern for him bodes well for him on the second round.

[jaichind]

Any links to real results ?

[jaichind]

Would be interesting to see map. I assume there is a major east/west divide.

Other than Warsaw I assume the split will be along 1914 borders.

[jaichind]

Kantar poll done right after exit polls has it at

Duda 50.4 Trzaskowski 49.6

[jaichind]

With almost all the votes counted it is

Duda           43.7
Trzaskowski  30.3
Hołownia      13.8
Bosak            6.8

With Duda outperforming exit poll and pre-election polls a bit

[jaichind]

Yea.. not bad for Duda. It will be tight but I expect him to win with 51% or 52%. Many people say that Bosak voters will split between the PIS and PO but at least Bosak's Facebook page they are overwhelmingly pro Duda.

I think the result will depend on how much the Hołownia vote turnout in the second round.  Some of them are most likely protest voters that will sit it out in the second round but it is not clear how much.  The rest of them will for sure vote Trzaskowski.

[jaichind]

Holownia seems to have indicated that he is  "voting against" Duda but will not officially endorse any candidate for the runoff.

[jaichind]

Exit poll by age



Interesting how the youth a much more radicalized in both direction which much stronger showings for both Hołownia and Bosak.

I wonder how many of the youth vote for Hołownia and Bosak will turn out in the second round.

[jaichind]

https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/507211-rosnie-przewaga-andrzeja-dudy-nad-rafalem-trzaskowskim

Social Changes has it at Duda winning 53-47 with turnout at 64% in the second round.  Previous poll a week ago had it at Duda winning 51-49

[jaichind]

Exit poll by age



Interesting how the youth a much more radicalized in both direction which much stronger showings for both Hołownia and Bosak.

I wonder how many of the youth vote for Hołownia and Bosak will turn out in the second round.

One thing: Hołownia is anything but radical. I would say that his popularity in the youngest age groups is effect of "freshness" similarly to Kukiz few years ago.

I always figured the youth vote for Hołownia is the SJW vote.  Most likely I am wrong here.