Polish Politics and Elections

[ionx]

The incumbent mayor of Gdańsk, Paweł Adamowicz will seek re-election in the upcoming election. He will probably be supported by the main opposition parties, so that's probably an easy win for the parliamentary minority. Another strong candidate which probably won't be beaten by the ruling party is Rafał Trzaskowski from Warsaw, who has already begun his campaign. He focuses - as for now - mainly on the issue of women's rights, equal opportunities etc. It would be kind of hard for him to lose: he is supported by three parties: the Civic Platform, .Modern and the Democratic Left Alliance. The polls show that we can expect a second round between Trzaskowski and the candidate of Law and Justice, which would be easily won by Trzaskowski.

[ionx]

The newest opinion poll from Warsaw, including 2 possible candidates nominated by PiS: Patryk Jaki (Deputy Minister of Justice, MP/Solidary Poland) and Stanisław Karczewski (Marshal of the Senate/PiS). The results are rather unsatisfying for them.

WITH JAKI:
First round
Trzaskowski-PO: 48.5%
Jaki-PiS: 33.9%
Tyszka-K'15: 3.8%
Śpiewak-*: 2.1%
Korwin-Mikke-WOL: 1.3%
Zandberg-RAZ: 1.3%
Wierzbicki-SLD: 0.8%
Stefaniak-PSL: 0.4%
Guział-**: 0.4%
Don't know/not decided yet: 8.0%
Second round
Trzaskowski-PO: 53.1%
Jaki-PiS: 41.2%
Don't know/not decided yet: 3.9%
Wouldn't participate in a II Turn: 1.8%
WITH KARCZEWSKI:
First round
Trzaskowski-PO: 49.6%
Karczewski-PiS: 24.3%
Tyszka-K'15: 6.2%
Śpiewak-*: 3.3%
Zandberg-RAZ: 2.9%
Korwin-Mikke-WOL: 2.3%
Wierzbicki-SLD: 1.3%
Stefaniak-PSL: 0.9%
Guział-**: 0.9%
Don't know/not decided yet: 8.3%
Second round
Trzaskowski-PO: 53.1%
Karczewski-PiS: 37.7%
Don't know/not decided yet: 5.3%
Wouldn't participate in a II Turn: 3.9%

* - local activist
** - former mayor of Ursynów (a district of Warsaw); Movement for Social Justice

So, if Trzaskowski won't make any huge mistakes, the victory for him should be quite easy. I don't think that the candidates which represent smaller parties will get such a low support, but presumably they won't achieve anything worth attention. Therefore Warsaw will be probably kept by PO. And electoral victories like that might have quite a big impact on the image of PO, .N, SLD and other opposition parties.

[ionx]

Well, I don't see many opportunities for Biedroń in Warsaw. That would be an interesting portfolio tho:
- born in a Subcarpathian village
- elected to the parliament by gaining enough votes in an electoral district located in Gdynia [2011]
- won the mayoral election in Słupsk [2014]
- trying to participate in the election in Warsaw? [2018]

Actually, Biedroń running in Warsaw could play an interesting role. If we deduct the support for Biedroń from the support for Trzaskowski, assuming that Jaki will be the PiS nominee, the results would be as the following:
Jaki-PiS: 33.9%
Trzaskowski-PO: 32.5%
Biedroń-IN: 16%
Other candidates: 10.1%

How does it influence the results? Not very much, but it gives a feeling that PiS is the strongest party, which could be used as a "proof" of the "dominance" of PiS in Poland. Also, it's possible that if such a situation happened, Biedroń would be concentrated on gaining support from Trzaskowski, which would have to lead to internal conflicts. Will Biedroń run? Fortunately, I doubt. He hasn't got much to offer, Trzaskowski has already presented a platform including the standard issues Biedroń talks about (equality, women's rights, progress...), so it wouldn't be the smartest move Biedroń could make.

[ionx]

Polish Initiative can field and support several interesting candidates like Biedroń and Nowacka, but except Biedroń the best they can achieve is 2 or 3 third places in some big cities' presidential elections. They will presumably have big problems with candidates in smaller cities, to city councils, not even talking about rural areas. Also, even though Robert Biedroń or Barbara Nowacka might mean something for an average Pole, i doubt that many people know about "Polish Initiative". Well, the left probably won't achieve much - the Greens, Razem, Polish Initiative and SLD running separately will neither satisfy their voters, nor make them stronger.