Polish Politics and Elections

[Flyersfan232]

Someone help me do the monarchist in confederation want to set up a polish monarchy?

[Flyersfan232]

How possible is it that the president wins in the first round?

[Flyersfan232]

Finally, Poland has a new government.

- Kaczynski joins as Deputy Prime Minister in charge of 'national security', i.e. overseeing the Defence, Interior and Justice Ministers and settling disputes in the government.
- Jaroslaw Gowin returns as Minister of Development, Technology and Labour - Labour being split off from Family and Social Policy specifically so it can be given to Gowin, Thatcherite bastard he is. Oh joy.
- The Ministry of Education is merged with the Ministry of Science and Higher Education and is given to noted homophobic moron who became a university professor through blatant nepotism, Przemyslaw Czarnek.
- The Ministry of Agriculture goes to Grzegorz 'who?' Puda, who was apparently the government's point man on the animal rights reform.
- The Climate and Environment Ministries are merged (why the hell were they ever separate) under current Climate Minister Michal Kurtyka.
- The Ministry of Sport is merged with the Ministry of Culture under current Culture Minister and Deputy PM Piotr Glinski.

https://twitter.com/TerryReintke/status/1311232324844085248?s=19
I’m awaiting the complete collapse of Lewica.

As usual, you know nothing. Spurek was against the whole Lewica project from the start and quit Wiosna two weeks after the 2019 election for that reason. What she does has no bearing on Lewica, and even if it did she wouldn't be any great loss anyway.

why do Kaczynski not be prime minister do he prefer party leadership role more?

[Flyersfan232]

Is there any discussion at all about how the coalition will handle the Presidential contest - aka running alone or together? Cause I have had a theory for a while that Hołownia wants to be the standard bearer of a united front. Him getting a role that rotates out in 2025 doesn't exactly discourage this speculation.

Donald Tusk said that single "democratic" candidate for President is very unlikely, because presidential candidate needs majority of votes to be elected. "Democratic" parties will use first round of presidential election as primary, because it's almost impossible not to make "democratic" candidate into run-off.

Hołownia's term as Marshal of Sejm expires on 13th November 2025, 3 months after start of new President's term. I think Hołownia will run for President, while holding office of Marshal of Sejm, but the most likely "democratic" candidate who would be in run-off is Warsaw mayor and 2020 presidential candidate Rafał Trzaskowski.

who is likely for pis and conferation?

[Flyersfan232]

KO, PL2050, PSL and Lewica signed today their coalition agreement, Tusk PM, Kosiniak-Kamysz (PSL) and Gawkowski (Lewica) will be Deputy PM, Hołownia (PL2050) and Czarzasty (Lewica) may turn chairs at the Marshal/Speaker of Sejm (Szymon the first two years), KO gets the Marshal/Speaker of the Senate but will also change in the middle of the term. Lewica party member Razem it's likely to stay in confidence and support rather than join the government.  The complete composition of the cabinet it's still unknown until Morawiecki' encharge fails.

[snip]
Economy
-Stable, friendly and fair tax system
-Tax cuts for working people to increase labor force participation and support families.
-Restoration of transparency over state finances
-Depoliticization of State-Owned Companies
- Introduction of clear recruitment criteria for management positions in state-owned companies
-Construction of new logistics infrastructure for farmers

[snip]

Notably (for me, anyway) is the absence Euro adoption being mentioned. Despite not at all being a surprise, as someone who is in favor of European integration, it is disappointing to not see it in the coalition agreement.

A 2/3rds Sejm majority is needed to change the constitution which currently establishes the złoty as the national currency. Of course, the coalition does not have such a majority. Poland can't even join ERM-2 (the "waiting room" countries need to join before adopting the Euro) until that constitutional change is made.

That's not even touching on whether or not the coalition's partners support euro adoption. Tusk has been very careful to avoid taking a stance (publicly at least) on the issue due to at best mildly favorable but divided public opinion on the issue.

in fighting happen to a point  between the left and the two other coalition where the left decisde to leave could tusk try to make a deal with confederation?

[Flyersfan232]

Szymon Hołownia (leader of PL2050) elected Marshal of Sejm (speaker)

Szymon Hołownia - 266 votes (KO, PL2050, PSL, New Left, Konfederacja)
Elżbieta Witek (incumbent) - 193 votes (PiS)

Why is Konferacja against PiS and also ruling out any potential coalition? They're to the right of PiS, aren't they?

Konferacja is against PiS on principles, but also against the opposition parties for the same reasons. Their brand(s) of far-rightism are like that. But here I guess they are just acting against PiS, cause its a vote on persons,  rather than in favor of any policy in particular.

if things with the sld and po and td go down causing sld to leave government could po and td work with kon?