Polish Politics and Elections

[Epaminondas]

I really like this thread.

What's the latest news about the Senate seats?

Would it be correct to frame the election as an underperformance by PiS that can feel like a win for the opposition, but in reality a win by rural areas which promises 4 more years of illiberalism in the heart of the EU?

[Epaminondas]

On the topic of the Smolensk air disaster, I hear there's a lot of discontent at PiS for another proof at their hypocrisy after 50 party members casually overlooked their own stay at home rules to celebrate.

This picture made the rounds of my Polish friends:

[Epaminondas]

Isn't it obvious the joke isn't just based on his height?

It's a satirical reference to the 2 metre social distancing requirement (among other restrictions) imposed by PiS to 40 million Polish citizen without any valid legal reason since no state of emergency has been declared.

Yet, as in all good thug states, the bosses of PiS themselves can do as they please and travel around Poland celebrating anniversaries while holding hands.

[Epaminondas]

Higher than normal turnout almost definitely benefits PiS and not PO.

Why is this?
Are Polish youth reliable voters, and the elderly fickle?

[Epaminondas]

I would say Duda wins by a 50.5% to 49.5% margin.

We'll see but I would like Trzaskowski to win.

Good guess! (sadly)

[Epaminondas]

Trzaskowski  has also claimed victory

Lol, he must be desperate to steal the election.

Yikes, Trumpist lummoxes are so desperate for attention they even post on a Polish thread they have no clue about.
Please don't sully this good place.

[Epaminondas]

At what time were results announced in 2019?

[Epaminondas]

Will the Senate results only come out tomorrow, like in 2019?

[Epaminondas]

Poznán gives 44% to KO, do they do better anywhere else?

But nationally the coalition doesn't look like it'll make it past 30. For a moment it looked promising.

Lower down we got the outcome for Częstochowa, is there a running tally of seats somewhere? I don't see one on Wybory.pl

[Epaminondas]

In Rzeszów PiS received 51% of the votes, but 60% of the seats.
In Radom PiS got 49% of the vote, but 67% of the seats!

No wonder they're still in contention despite most of Poland loathing them, what a broken allocation system.

[Epaminondas]

In Rzeszów PiS received 51% of the votes, but 60% of the seats.
In Czestochowa PiS got 37% of the vote, but 67% of the seats!

No wonder they're still in contention despite most of Poland loathing them, what a broken allocation system.

Not true. They won 3 out of 7 seats in Czestochowa which is 43%.

Sorry I meant Radom, in which 49% of the ballots delivered 67% of the seats to PiS.

[Epaminondas]

PiS seem to be taking a hiding in the Senate. I count 7 flips to Lewica/KO already (seats 1,2,3,72,73,85,87), barring changes in the last few percents.

Perhaps I'm doing it wrong? It seems too good to be true.

[Epaminondas]

The Chicago Metro Area is the main reason PiS was the winner here in the United States. In 14 polling states, the only lost 2 and they only failed to get a majority in a total of 4. In some polling places they got over 70% of the vote!

So the same constituency that votes 70% Democratic in US election votes 70% for the Polish GOP. Ideological splits.

[Epaminondas]

German Minority has lost their seat!

Could Riszard Galla even speak German? I'd been hunting some video interviews of him in German, but failed to find anything beyond members of his cabinet speaking German. But his Polish is a bit wonky (I'm told) so perhaps he speaks a Silesian dialect?

It makes no sense at all to map American politics onto the politics of a country where both major parties are right-wing.

From Europe, it's pretty open-and-shut that this is the case in the US as well.
One right-wing reasonable party, and one far-right wing bonkers party.

[Epaminondas]

Assuming the opposition alliance wins the Sejm and the Senate comfortably, what sort of shenanigans could Duda pull to hinder them over the next 2 years?

[Epaminondas]

Counting has slowed to a trickle, I imagine poll workers are wrapping up for the night.

So tomorrow will be the day of fabulous maps splashed with orange and green.

[Epaminondas]

Some of my great-grandparents came to the United States from Bialystok, back when it was a heavily Jewish city at the western fringe of the Russian Empire. Nice to see a net opposition gain here.

Białystok is now a mandatory layover for all trains from the Baltics to the rest of Europe, and there does seem to be some developing nature tourism in the area (went barge-pushing nearby a few years ago)

[Epaminondas]

PO have passed 30%, and it now looks like PiS could fall below 36.
Beautiful.

[Epaminondas]

Consituency no. 14 (Nowy Sącz) fully reported
PiS - 53.73% (-12.07) 229,587
KO - 16.10% (+2.27) 68,804
Third Way - 11.58% (+4.23) 49,487

Seats
PiS - 6 (-2)
KO - 2 (+1)
Third Way - 1

Curious result for KO: 16% of the vote, but 20% of the seats. How can that happen in D'Hondt.

[Epaminondas]

In Poznan PO has further increased their lead in seats while losing votes.

[Epaminondas]

The next dump should bring the total votes above the 2020 presidential election total (20.6M), itself a record at the time.

[Epaminondas]

How much has the opposition expanded their majority in the Senate?

The only PiS Senator from Lower Silesia will be Aleksander Szwed from 5th constituency, who won by only 508 votes.
Opposition is going to net gain low teens of Senate seats.

Szwed was saved by smaller parties splintering coalition votes, one of the few seats of failed consolidation.

PO will probably have an absolute majority in the Senate tomorrow and PiS around 35, a complete reversal from 2015.

[Epaminondas]

So close to bringing the margin below 5%, but Warsaw is now 94% in so I think it'll be just above 5% margin for PiS over KO.

Probably 5.3% in the end.
Still a phenomenal improvement over the 16.2% PiS lead over PO just 4 years ago.

[Epaminondas]

Seats
(...)

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/13

Before the night is out, how did you convert vote numbers to seats so fast? It's not explicitly on the website.

[Epaminondas]

Maps of the Senate
(snip)

Lovely maps, thanks. Have you a list of the the closest seats? There were quite a few nailbiters decided by <1000 votes in the Senate.