Polish Politics and Elections

[Antonio the Sixth]

Still no official results counted at all?

[Antonio the Sixth]

As for the minors participating in the elections from other parties lists:

Porozumienie (PiS ally, conliberal): 18 MPs (including Gowin and Emilewicz)
Solidarna Polska (PiS ally, PiS on steroids): ca. 11-14 MPs

Nowoczesna: ca. 7 MPs
Inicjatywa Polska: 4 MPs
Zieloni: 3 MPs

Razem: 6 MPs
Wiosna ca. 16 MPs

Kukiz faithful: 7 MPs

Do you have a full breakdown of seats somewhere?

[Antonio the Sixth]

As for the minors participating in the elections from other parties lists:

Porozumienie (PiS ally, conliberal): 18 MPs (including Gowin and Emilewicz)
Solidarna Polska (PiS ally, PiS on steroids): ca. 11-14 MPs

Nowoczesna: ca. 7 MPs
Inicjatywa Polska: 4 MPs
Zieloni: 3 MPs

Razem: 6 MPs
Wiosna ca. 16 MPs

Kukiz faithful: 7 MPs

Do you have a full breakdown of seats somewhere?

Hell, I could calculate it myself pretty easily if the results page had the number of seats apportioned to each constituency, but it doesn't seem to have even that. There's gotta be a place to find it though?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Official 100% for Sejm according to PKW

PSL: 30
PiS: 235
SLD: 49
Konfederacja: 11
KO: 134
MN: 1

So PiS managed to win a majority with only 44% despite all the significant parties clearing the threshold. D'Hondt never disappoints.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Other: today there is 10th anniversary of Smoleńsk air disaster.

Oh wow, it is. God I feel old, I distinctly remember when it was the news of the day.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Let's wait and see, but this is concerning.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently midnight local time is an updated exit poll only (exit poll or based on partial vote count?) and NO official results will be released until the vote count is complete.

That seems... suspicious. Is that the usual practice?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Shame I had to miss this election because it's been one true ray of hope amid dark times, but I still wanted to thank everyone who contributed maps and analysis to this thread as I've been following it quite assiduously. Poland is a country I have a lot of affection with and a crucial player in Europe, and it's a relief to know that the forces of reaction can be defeated (amid record-high turnout, no less). Hopefully Italy is next!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Almost everyone in Poland expects swearing in of new "real" government on 13th December (42nd anniversary of declaring martial laws by communists).

Wouldn't the coalition want to try to avoid that symbolism if they can? Giorgia Meloni was definitely nervous about her inauguration getting close to the 100th anniversary of the March on Rome. I guess she had a lot more control over the timing of the process given Italian institutional norms, though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Almost everyone in Poland expects swearing in of new "real" government on 13th December (42nd anniversary of declaring martial laws by communists).

Wouldn't the coalition want to try to avoid that symbolism if they can? Giorgia Meloni was definitely nervous about her inauguration getting close to the 100th anniversary of the March on Rome. I guess she had a lot more control over the timing of the process given Italian institutional norms, though.

Well I think a big part of that was that Meloni was accused of being a fascist. Literally no one aside from the most blatant hacks think either PiS or PO are Communists, so it wouldn't be as applicable.

I mean, all indications suggest PiS is nothing but blatant hacks, and they literally tried to smear Tusk as a foreign agent on several occasions, so smearing him as a closet commie doesn't feel too out of character.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Politico EU ranked Donald Tusk as the #1 most powerful person in Europe for 2023. They even included the pretentious sub-title "The wind of change".

That's a bit overwrought, but in fairness the current crop of European leaders is so paltry and uninspired that someone with Tusk's experience and international standing might be able to have an influence beyond what his country's position normally affords.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A glorious day for Poland and for Europe

[Antonio the Sixth]

If the vote is evenly split between PiS and two coalition candidates, PiS is f**ked.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Glad the Coalition is not playing with kid gloves here. The enemies of democracy must be purged mercilessly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Seems like PiS did slightly better than expected but nothing too alarming?

[Antonio the Sixth]

34% is not enough to win a majority. PiS has been rooted out of power without either of those happening.

In a parliamentary system with rivals winning 30% and 15% but refusing to merge, it might be possible with a few lucky breaks in split percentages.

If I remember, in 2023 PiS got the absolute majority of parliament seats in Lublin and Białystok with only ~42% of the vote there.

34% is a long way from 42%.

We all know that PiS can win with around 40% of the vote. We've seen it happen twice in recent memory. Winning with the low 30s is something that could only happen if the Polish party system fragments far beyond its current state, when if anything it's been consolidating.