GA/NC/VA and 2020/2024

[Mr. Smith]

Usually, since 2000, North Carolina always voted anywhere between 4-6 points to the right of Virginia (and has been right of the commonwealth since 1996).

And since 2004, it's voted left of Georgia by 4-5 points.

Logically then, 2016 should've looked like either: Georgia goes R by 8-9 points, NC at 3.6, and Virginia goes D at 2-3 points like 2012

Or it should've looked like Georgia goes R by 5 points, NC is either D/R by less than point , and Virginia at the 5.4 D mark

But for whatever reason, NC was only 1.5 points different from Georgia and 9 points from Virginia...both of those states swung by 1.5 points D while NC went the opposite direction.

The last time there was a switchup, there were 2 cycles where NC was the furthest right, but the grasp slipped in 2004 when Georgia became the furthest right. (Besides 1964-1972, and 1988 it was the other way around usually)

So come my questions. Will 2020 see North Carolina be precisely in between Georgia and Virginia again? Will North Carolina's alleged inelasticity mean that Georgia becomes the middle-man next cycle or 2024?

[SingingAnalyst]

I suspect NC will again be about midway between VA and GA in 2020. Of course, a lot could change that: the presence of a Virginian or North Carolinan or Georgian on the Presidential ticket; a contentious state race or issue on the ballot (such as the 2000 school voucher proposal in MI which energized Democrats to vote mostly against it); or perhaps other factors.

I suppose these factors were present in varying degrees in the years you mentioned, also.

[Adam Griffin]

Obligatory rant

No - Georgia is obviously total fool's gold for the Democrats and we should continue to pump hundreds of millions of dollars into uber swing-state NC!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Truly inspiring!

No. If we're talking about investment for presidential elections alone, then NC should be abandoned and GA should get the investment. It's kept up with NC since 2000 in terms of tracking with the state in its share of the Democratic vote.

NC is one of only four states that has trended Democratic in each of the last four cycles. Georgia isn't.

"Trend" is effectively meaningless outside of Atlas nerd analysis, though.

But if we are gonna look at it, then look at the trend of the trend: NC is spent. NC's 2012 trend beat GA by a measly 0.2 points and in 2016, NC got stomped by GA. This is with NC getting tons of investment and money, and GA getting none.

All that money can buy there has been bought already. Time to invest in GA!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I see Georgia as more promising for Democrats/worrisome to me in the medium-term than North Carolina, which seems to have stabilized as a Lean R state (and it helps that its transplants seem to be much more Republican than those of neighboring states).  Georgia is potentially a demographic time-bomb, but I really don't see that with NC, as I don't really think the GOP has maxed out the rural vote there yet.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I see Georgia as more promising for Democrats/worrisome to me in the medium-term than North Carolina, which seems to have stabilized as a Lean R state (and it helps that its transplants seem to be much more Republican than those of neighboring states).  Georgia is potentially a demographic time-bomb, but I really don't see that with NC, as I don't really think the GOP has maxed out the rural vote there yet.

The only thing working against that process is the NC GOP itself.

But yeah, I think NC ends up more Republican than both GA and VA sometime in the 2020's.

[Mr. Smith]

I'm gonna put up the actual margins now just for better context, going from 1992 because that was the last year Virginia was the furthest right of the trio.

Year                VA             NC             GA      NC-VA Difference    NC-GA Difference


1992:         + 4.4 R        + 0.7 R     +0.3 D         3.7 R                        1 D
1996:         + 2 R           + 4.7 R       +1.2 R        2.7 D                       3.5 D
2000:         + 8.1 R        +12.8 R     + 11.7 R       4.7 D                       1.1 D
2004:         + 8.2 R        +12.4 R     + 16.6 R       4.2 D                      4.2 R
2008:         + 6.3 D        + 0.3 D      + 5.2 R            6 D                       5.5 R
2012:         + 3.8 D       + 2 R         + 7.2 R         5.8 D                       5.2 R
2016:         + 5.4 D        + 3.6 R      + 5.1 R            9 D                       1.5 R

[Skill and Chance]

I expect GA to leapfrog NC in 2020 and to actually vote Dem in the next Dem presidential victory.

[Vern]

I think 2016 had a lot hold the Democratic vote back. You had Matthew that hit and cause a lot of damage in the eastern democratic areas. Plus you had the NC GOP cutting the early voting locations which cut into the Democratic vote. I think in 2020 NC will trend D.

[SingingAnalyst]

I think 2016 had a lot hold the Democratic vote back. You had Matthew that hit and cause a lot of damage in the eastern democratic areas. Plus you had the NC GOP cutting the early voting locations which cut into the Democratic vote. I think in 2020 NC will trend D.

Me too. I think NC will trend strongly D in 2020.

We also had violence surrounding anti-police brutality protests in Charlotte, which probably helped energize the Trump vote in NC in 2016.

[Burke859]

A lot of it depends on whether the new dichotomy holds of Democrats attracting non-whites and urban/suburban college whites, and Republicans taking the WWC and rural/exurban whites.

If that holds, then the general framework of the 2016 map will hold, though not necessarily the ultimate result, i.e., GA and VA will trend D and NC and FL will trend R.

[Young Conservative]

I think 2016 had a lot hold the Democratic vote back. You had Matthew that hit and cause a lot of damage in the eastern democratic areas. Plus you had the NC GOP cutting the early voting locations which cut into the Democratic vote. I think in 2020 NC will trend D.

Me too. I think NC will trend strongly D in 2020.

We also had violence surrounding anti-police brutality protests in Charlotte, which probably helped energize the Trump vote in NC in 2016.

Can we stop using swing and trend interchangeably? One election doesn't equal a trend.

[pppolitics]

A lot people forgot that in 2016, the (North Carolina) Republicans control the elections board and made it as hard as possible for Democratic leaning constituents to vote.

[Thunder98]

GA will be like Virginia in 2008. Voting relatively comfortably for the GOP then suddenly votes Democratic in the next election.

[cvparty]

GA will be like Virginia in 2008. Voting relatively comfortably for the GOP then suddenly votes Democratic in the next election.

I wouldn't say GA was comfortably GOP (it was only 5%) or that Virginia flipping was sudden
Gwinnett and Cobb flipping + metro Atlanta swinging hard D in '16 reminds me a lot of Fairfax flipping + NOVA swinging D in '04

[Adam Griffin]

Despite GA being the closest state in 2016 that didn't get investment, I'm skeptical of it flipping in 2018/2020 under its own weight. I suppose if 2020 turns into an absolute blowout (double-digit PV win) it's possible, but otherwise, GA is incredibly inelastic and it is not generating the kind of demographic in-flow that it was between 2000-2010.

This belief is based on the fact that I don't have a ton of faith in the broader Democratic Party and/or presidential candidate recognizing an opportunity and diverting the needed amount of national resources into the state to make it competitive. You're talking about dozens of field offices and at least $50 million in resources for a serious attempt to be viable.

If that were to happen, then a win in 2020 is possible - but the work in reality should have already began.

Furthermore, I think the chances of both '08-'12 & '16 surges aligning in one election (i.e. higher rural white support and minority turnout & higher white suburban support) - even if it was a blow-out - are unlikely barring major field operations and tons of cash being injected. Looking back at every election (midterms and presidentials) for the past 15 years or so, one of two groups (rural and urban) tends to rebound for Dems relative to the last election, while the other sags - take a look below at my big animated map for the easily visible swings between two elections for the two groups.

Still, it's completely possible that GA is to the left of NC in 2020; I think the latter is going to diddle around as a lean Republican/swing state for a long, long time (in part because the GOP has not reached its ceiling with rural white voters).

[Nyvin]

Georgia will become the more Democratic state in 2020...it's obvious the Atlanta metro trend is far stronger than anything Raleigh/Charlotte has for the Dems.

Georgia starting from a deeper hole is the only reason it's been more Republican.  

[Skill and Chance]

Georgia will become the more Democratic state in 2020...it's obvious the Atlanta metro trend is far stronger than anything Raleigh/Charlotte has for the Dems.

Georgia starting from a deeper hole is the only reason it's been more Republican.  

Strongly agree with this, and also there basically aren't any more Trumpy rural Dems left for the GOP to flip in GA, while there still are some in NC.  It wouldn't even surprise me if GA is voting left of VA in the 2030's. 

[Vern]

Like I have said many times 2016 Election in NC had a lot that hurt the Democratic numbers. With Matthew coming through and the republicans doing dirty tricks. NC will trend democratic hard in 2020

[Virginiá]

Like I have said many times 2016 Election in NC had a lot that hurt the Democratic numbers. With Matthew coming through and the republicans doing dirty tricks. NC will trend democratic hard in 2020

The dirty tricks likely won't stop in 2020. Republicans refuse to give up in their quest to be able to obstruct the election boards, which means they will likely force a bunch of county-level early voting plans that limit voting opportunities for minorities/young people. The law states that if they can't agree on a plan, it defaults to 1 early voting site for the entire county. I don't know what idiot Democrats decided that was acceptable when they passed said law(s), but it is what it is.

But as for the hurricane issue - that probably won't happen again. In which case, the surge of energy on the left we're seeing under Trump could drive up Democratic support in NC a fair bit. Trump is also likely going to pay a penalty in terms of support/turnout for being an unpopular incumbent.

[Vern]

Like I have said many times 2016 Election in NC had a lot that hurt the Democratic numbers. With Matthew coming through and the republicans doing dirty tricks. NC will trend democratic hard in 2020

The dirty tricks likely won't stop in 2020. Republicans refuse to give up in their quest to be able to obstruct the election boards, which means they will likely force a bunch of county-level early voting plans that limit voting opportunities for minorities/young people. The law states that if they can't agree on a plan, it defaults to 1 early voting site for the entire county. I don't know what idiot Democrats decided that was acceptable when they passed said law(s), but it is what it is.

But as for the hurricane issue - that probably won't happen again. In which case, the surge of energy on the left we're seeing under Trump could drive up Democratic support in NC a fair bit. Trump is also likely going to pay a penalty in terms of support/turnout for being an unpopular incumbent.

That sucks about the early voting. That is how I have always voted and everyone I know. I mean who really votes on Election Day anymore.