Next to leave the EU

[Strudelcutie4427]

???

[catographer]

i think the uk may actually re-enter, and that no more will leave. but we'll see.

[Soonerdem]

The only correct answer is still Greece just because of how weak it is and unpopular literally everything is in that country.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I think Austria and Greece are god bets.

[Tender Branson]

I think Austria and Greece are god bets.

Nope.

Currently, 70-75% of Austrian voters support EU-membership and ÖVP-FPÖ have agreed to only introduce more direct democracy by the end of their term (= 2022), but a referendum for an EU exit was ruled out in their coalition agreement.

As for the question: I think that no country will leave the EU anytime soon.

[Former President tack50]

Probably no one. If I had to guess I'd say either Italy (the EU isn't unpopular there, but the euro is) or Hungary.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I said nobody. Likeliest would be Greece, followed by Hungary after some sort of conflict with the rest of the bloc. Maybe Denmark.

[Zinneke]

Poland.

[TheSaint250]

Honestly, I doubt another will leave for at least 15 years. All other EU nations seem to approve, with the lowest being in the high-50s or low-60s in terms of support.

[AndyHogan14]

The Czech Republic is an interesting option, but I'd say that the UK is more likely to stay in (or return to) the EU than any of the EU-27 leaving at this point.

[libertpaulian]

None.  Thanks to Trump, Le Pen, and Wilders, populism is toxic.

[JonHawk]

Denmark maybe.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

None, but if one would do it I guess that would be Czech Republic.

[DavidB.]

Probably none. Southern, Central and Eastern European countries are usually net receivers; their governments might bark, but will not leave, particularly not the ones with corrupt governments (oh hello Orbán). They often do not harbor real Euroskepticism either (which should not be conflated with opposition to mass immigration: Hungary, for instance, isn't deeply Euroskeptic at all; however, that might change if a major relocation scheme of migrants were to be pushed through). Northern and Western European countries, on the other hand, benefit far too much from free trade to seriously contemplate leaving. The UK was always the exception because it is both a net payer and big enough to manage things outside the EU (theoretically the same goes for Germany, but they will obviously never leave). That said, if any country would leave, it would be Italy or Czechia.

In case a major relocation scheme of migrants were to be pushed through, I could see Poland, Czechia and perhaps Hungary leave, though. Denmark, probably the most Euroskeptic Northwestern EU-27 member state, is a wildcard, but their opt-outs probably ease the pressure.

[Middle-aged Europe]

None.

[Zinneke]

None.

I mean as long as Article 50 exists and electoral politics exist, are we really saying that there will be no EU exits in the forseeable future. Its still worth speculating on long term potential leavers for historical reasons.

Also who put Belgium lol?

[Tintrlvr]

None.

I mean as long as Article 50 exists and electoral politics exist, are we really saying that there will be no EU exits in the forseeable future. Its still worth speculating on long term potential leavers for historical reasons.

Also who put Belgium lol?

I mean, if Belgium ceased to exist, I think that would qualify as leaving the EU and being replaced by some combination of successor states. I think Belgium breaking up is no less likely than any non-UK member state leaving, although all are relatively unlikely.

[Zinneke]

None.

I mean as long as Article 50 exists and electoral politics exist, are we really saying that there will be no EU exits in the forseeable future. Its still worth speculating on long term potential leavers for historical reasons.

Also who put Belgium lol?

I mean, if Belgium ceased to exist, I think that would qualify as leaving the EU and being replaced by some combination of successor states. I think Belgium breaking up is no less likely than any non-UK member state leaving, although all are relatively unlikely.

Very true, the difference being that there is a clear legal pathway for seperation from the EU, all this while the EU continues to go into "ever closer union" that could provoke a willingness to trigger Article 50 by countries not wanting to engage in a political project.
There's several scenarii, but all of them would mean at least part of Belgium stays in the EU.

- Flanders and Wallonia do a Czechoslovak deal and Brussels becomes an EU district, both stay in EU the ideal plan for moderate Flemish nationalists.
- Flanders secedes unilaterally, Wallonia-Brussels tries to claim Belgium successor state status on an international level, and with likely French and Spanish support, retains EU status while Flanders is out. Issue becomes EU capital being in an enclave, but if there is unilateral secession from Flanders then nothing is stopping Rhode from joining Brussels (#Tabernia). But there'd be tensions for sure.
- Flanders secedes claiming Brussels and thus Belgian successor state status. Big PR disaster for the EU but I can imagine this could only happen if the EU had already all but broken up. Vlaams Belang's ideal scenario.


But I think, while Belgian split is inevitable, the EU split would probably have to happen first in history. The Catalan issue and the Franco-German response showed us that EU countries have no appetite to revise each others borders.

[Aboa]

Flanders and Wallonia do a Czechoslovak deal and Brussels becomes an EU district, both stay in EU the ideal plan for moderate Flemish nationalists.

I don't think EU would want to directly administer Brussels.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Poland.

With +70% public support for EU? Sure.

[Zinneke]

Flanders and Wallonia do a Czechoslovak deal and Brussels becomes an EU district, both stay in EU the ideal plan for moderate Flemish nationalists.

I don't think EU would want to directly administer Brussels.

Brussels already has its own regional competences and then its "community" competences are segregated between Flanders and the "Federation of Wallonia-Brussels" (Francophones). All the EU would have to do is assume de jure control of it in order to avoid a tug of war between the two regions.

Adimittedly it would create a greater institutional mess, but my point is Brussels is a mess anyway.

Poland.

With +70% public support for EU? Sure.

Trust in EU



Doesn't look like 70% to me. Welcoem to other survey questions though, but right after Brexit its easy to see why people have no appetite to answer "yes" to an immediate triggering of Article 50.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I must say I'm always greatly confused by the details of Belgian federal system.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Flanders and Wallonia do a Czechoslovak deal and Brussels becomes an EU district, both stay in EU the ideal plan for moderate Flemish nationalists.

I don't think EU would want to directly administer Brussels.

Brussels already has its own regional competences and then its "community" competences are segregated between Flanders and the "Federation of Wallonia-Brussels" (Francophones). All the EU would have to do is assume de jure control of it in order to avoid a tug of war between the two regions.

Adimittedly it would create a greater institutional mess, but my point is Brussels is a mess anyway.

Poland.

With +70% public support for EU? Sure.

Trust in EU



Doesn't look like 70% to me. Welcoem to other survey questions though, but right after Brexit its easy to see why people have no appetite to answer "yes" to an immediate triggering of Article 50.

Usually Polish polls show very high support for EU membership in Poland, some are also covered by non-Polish media but rarely. At the same time support for the Euro is very low, what was also covered by that Eurobarometer survey from which screenshot was included in that topic. CBOS is sh**tpoll but still I doubt that support for EU membership in Poland is lower than 75%. 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/poland-eu-membership-support-for-membership-courts-rule-of-law-mateusz-morawiecki-juncker-a8149876.html

[Karpatsky]

Poland will not leave the EU as long as Russia is perceived as a larger threat. Greece and maybe Hungary are much better bets.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

maybe Czechia with Zeman recently winning, but that's probably the only one.