Czech Politics: Fiala government

[Bojicat]

My (sort of obvious) standard for judging the outcome of any national question or contest is to sense the mood of the country. And the mood-flow in Czechia since October has been Babis, Okamura, pro-immigrant curtailment, anti-Brussels, anti-establishment, and, it should have been figured out from the start, pro-ZEMAN.

The Czech presidential polls, some we now see in retrospect (a la Brexit, Trump victory, and a number of Senators, Governors and Congressmen in the US), were very wrong, some tinged with must-get-Zeman-out-at-all-costs bias, and rather 'see-through' going about it at that.

My prediction then: Babis will get his majority government. His popularity will grow and he'll be PM for a couple of terms. He'll bring in Okamura and work out a deal with Fiala, and a few of the smaller parties (Mayors and Independents? TOP09?). What'll be left in opposition will be the Pirates and the Communists (and a rather de minimus CSSD). That's not much of an opposition Babis will face the second go around.

Czechia will be rather boring for awhile. Best to wash your hands, shrug and have done with it.

[Bojicat]

  Would Okamura insist, as a price to support Babis, on some referenda to be held on different issues since his party is a direct democracy supporting party?

 
I think it'll be a half-hearted insistence, if Okamura goes on insisting on anything national, like referenda. Indeed, Okamura should bless his lucky stars if Babis invites him in at all, and keep blessing them.

What he will negotiate are cabinet portfolios. Minister of Defense? Minister of Justice? Minister of the Interior? Maybe a few of his people spread about in various councils? Ambassadorships?

Same goes for Fiala, et al. They'll all mostly fall in. There's not much in the alternative (stay out in the wilderness, powerless, maybe for a decade or more?).

Fun work, negotiating coalition governments.

[Bojicat]

The Czech presidential polls, some we now see in retrospect (a la Brexit, Trump victory, and a number of Senators, Governors and Congressmen in the US), were very wrong, some tinged with must-get-Zeman-out-at-all-costs bias, and rather 'see-through' going about it at that.

I don't think they were wrong. It was always going to be a close race; in the last stage of the campaign, Zeman successfully managed to paint Drahos as a liberal/someone whose agenda was not in the Czech interest/someone who remained silent about his real agenda (e.g. the dumb comment about migrant quotas being "manageable"), which swung public opinion by a few points and managed to get his base out to vote, enough for him to win.

Thanks, DavidB (and also thanks for hosting this Forum, fun topic).

Though polling is never scientific, more often than not, the trends they indicate are often correct.
However in this case, DavidB, every poll in the run-up to the run-off, and I mean EVERY poll, stated that DRAHOS was ahead. Some pollsters and prognosticators (now tarnished, as far as many are concerned) would exhort that DRAHOS' lead was even more dramatic than these polls revealed, that DRAHOS would, in fact, take regions in the country thought to be safe for ZEMAN, the public was just that much disgusted with ZEMAN. Many fell for/went along with that line.

Forum participants, and writers from other sites I comment in, would decry my view that these polls are unreliable, that the Czechia mood would actually lift ZEMAN to victory in the end. These decriers (here too), would insist, sometimes vehemently and nastily, that ZEMAN will lose, "be creamed" (one quote) because "every single poll, EVERY SINGLE POLL, shows Drahos smashing Zeman" (another quote). "Look at the polls," I'd hear incessantly.

These very wrong polls led these very bull-headed people like the Pied Piper.

[Bojicat]

What coalition do any of you suspect Babis will be successful in coddling together?

I see him adding the ODS, the SPD, maybe KDU.

[Bojicat]

Have KDU ruled out support? Those sort of parties normally provide useful coalition fodder.

True, continuation of the ANO+CSSD+KDU/CSL coalition would also an option; however, I still refuse to believe CSSD will actually enter a coalition with ANO again. In an option with ODS, KDU-CSL is not necessary. I really doubt whether KDU-CSL would want to enter a coalition with either the SPD or the Communists.

I agree. I just wonder, though, what other options the KDU or the CSSD have? An ANO-led majority government is in the cards, I think inevitable. Would the KDU and CSSD rather sit this out, in opposition, powerless and obscure, perhaps for a decade? The public will NOT rush into their arms should Babis falter. What would the KDU, CSSD then do during this period in Siberia?  Sit cold and lonely in the galleries? Join forces with the Communists? With the Pirate Party? Fat chance.

They're far better off joining in a the coalition government.

[Bojicat]

Oh, come on, Bojicat, this falls squarely under Nate Silver's First Rule of Polling Errors: the polling error usually occurs in the opposite direction from what the media expects.

Brexit:
Polls show narrow Remain
Media expects wide Remain
Result: narrow Leave

US presidential 2016:
Polls show narrow Clinton
Media expects wide Clinton
Result: narrow Trump

France 2017:
Polls show very wide Macron
Media expects a close race
Result: even wider Macron

Virginia Governor 2017:
Polls show narrow Northam
Media expects an extremely close race
Result: Comfortable Northam

Similarly, Czechia Presidential 2018:
Polls show tossup/narrow Drahos
Media expects comfortable Drahos
Result: narrow Zeman

In all cases, it wasn't that the polling was widely off; the error was small. It was the media interpretation that was way off.

Good bird's-eye view, so to speak, EAGLES.

[Bojicat]

Beginning to re-think my 2018 BABIS-coalition prognosis.

The SPD and the Communists were itching to join in his first short-lived attempt. Bringing in the Communists, he probably feared, would swell up the Babis-is-a-crypto-Communist/KGB-agent smear and hurt his long-term chances. Adding in the SPD would cement allegations that he loathes the idea of admitting ANY immigrants from East or South of the Dardanelles. Asking in the Pirates, would generate a 24-hour world-wide laugh-in, we all suspect.

I think these fears are unwarranted. The establishment parties he's (probably) inclined to bring in were gutted to bones by the electorate. These repudiated parties still grandstand and pose as if the public wants anything more to do with them. They refuse to face the fact that the whiff of grapeshot discharged towards their behinds is still there and lingering. So they continue to hold up their noses at joining a Babis coalition, playing hard to get, as if they still have anything valuable that anyone wants.

Babis, bring in the dreaded Communists and/or Pirates and/or SPD (+ one or two reduced-to-size established parties). You'll have your majority, and this at-first assailed coalition team might just succeed.

[Bojicat]

I wonder what effect today's verdict against BABIS' slander lawsuit will have on his efforts to launch a coalition government? The Court lets sit secret-police 'evidence' that BABIS was known as Communist agent 'Bures' a few decades ago. 

Was this decision holding up coalition talks at all? Can't figure why it's taking so long to make a deal. ANO, KDU & ODS (Maybe SPD too, or CSSD).