Would Hillary Have Done Better In Rural Areas Had Kasich Been The Nominee?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Kasich would have won the pv 54-43. He would have done 8-10pts better than Trump in suburbs and 3-4pts better than Trump in cities. But I think he would have done 4-5 pts worse than Trump in deep red rural areas. What do you think?

[SingingAnalyst]

I think Kasich would have won the pv 54-43. He would have done 8-10pts better than Trump in suburbs and 3-4pts better than Trump in cities. But I think he would have done 4-5 pts worse than Trump in deep red rural areas. What do you think?

My answer to your question is, definitely.

Hillary would have done better than the 20s in MI's thumb, which Obama lost only narrowly in '08 and still managed 40% or so in '12, had Kasich been the GOP nominee.

Hillary would have done better than single digits in Winston County, AL, had Kasich been the nominee (and there are many, many similar examples of deep red counties in the Deep South: Blount and Cleburne, AL; George, Itawamba, and Tishmingo, MS-- all of which gave Clinton 8-13% in the GE IRL).

I'm curious why you think Kasich would have done 8-10% better than Trump in the suburbs. We are talking a HUGE GOP swing in the suburbs in that case. Personally, I question whether Kasich would win MI under a Clinton-Kasich scenario.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

This "Kasich would've easily won" meme should just die already. Kasich would be a weak, bland and generic candidate.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This "Kasich would've easily won" meme should just die already. Kasich would be a weak, bland and generic candidate.

Bland and generic is all you need vs a hated opponent like Hillary.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

This "Kasich would've easily won" meme should just die already. Kasich would be a weak, bland and generic candidate.

Bland and generic is all you need vs a hated opponent like Hillary.

So this is why Trump was buried in a landslide?

Without any flare, Kasich v. Hillary race would simply end up as a referendum on Obama's 3rd term.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This "Kasich would've easily won" meme should just die already. Kasich would be a weak, bland and generic candidate.

Bland and generic is all you need vs a hated opponent like Hillary.

So this is why Trump was buried in a landslide?

Without any flare, Kasich v. Hillary race would simply end up as a referendum on Obama's 3rd term.

Which would lead to an easy win for the Republicans. Look at generic R vs generic D. The only reason the presidential was even remotely close was so many people hated Trump. No dem leaning people would even care to turn out for Hillary if Kasich was the republican; only reason they turned out was they hated Trump.

I seriously have no damn idea how so many Atlas people have a boner for Trump being unstoppable. He was by far the weakest candidate besides Cruz, Carson, and Jinal. 2016 was supposed to be a fairly sizeable gop win but Trump blew it so damn hard.

Ron Johnson was boring as hell and far right and destroyed Feingold.

[uti2]

This "Kasich would've easily won" meme should just die already. Kasich would be a weak, bland and generic candidate.

Bland and generic is all you need vs a hated opponent like Hillary.

So this is why Trump was buried in a landslide?

Without any flare, Kasich v. Hillary race would simply end up as a referendum on Obama's 3rd term.

Which would lead to an easy win for the Republicans. Look at generic R vs generic D. The only reason the presidential was even remotely close was so many people hated Trump. No dem leaning people would even care to turn out for Hillary if Kasich was the republican; only reason they turned out was they hated Trump.

I seriously have no damn idea how so many Atlas people have a boner for Trump being unstoppable. He was by far the weakest candidate besides Cruz, Carson, and Jinal. 2016 was supposed to be a fairly sizeable gop win but Trump blew it so damn hard.

Ron Johnson was boring as hell and far right and destroyed Feingold.

If you're making the argument about turnout, by the same token, why would disaffected rural Trump voters care to turn out for a normal establishment republican?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Without any flare, Kasich v. Hillary race would simply end up as a referendum on Obama's 3rd term.

Hillary really wasn't an avatar for Obama's third term. Young people and minority voters were not excited for her like they were for Obama. Trump being the brash, race baiting character he is, is why the race was even close.

A boring Hillary vs. Kasich race, would have led to a sizeable GOP win in the popular vote. Not because Kasich was an amazing candidate, but because Hillary was a boring one. He wins North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio,Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Florida. Hillary holds on to PA/MI/WI because Kasich doesn't ramp up the angry white male vote in the Midwest like Trump did.

ETA: The electoral vote would be closer, but Kasich wins the popular vote convincingly.

[Rookie Yinzer]

If you're making the argument about turnout, by the same token, why would disaffected rural Trump voters care to turn out for a normal establishment republican?

They wouldn't. That's why Hillary would win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan in this scenario.

Kasich still wins all the other swing states. Maybe Hillary could squeak by in Nevada, but that's it.

[Mr. Smith]

Clinton
Kasich


And I'm being generous about Colorado and Nevada here. No way Kasich wins Florida even if he matches Romney. Trump had to swamp the state with people who wouldn't have showed up for Kasich.  But Hillary would've worked the same ground-game to get the minorities that kept it so close

[uti2]

Clinton
Kasich


And I'm being generous about Colorado and Nevada here. No way Kasich wins Florida even if he matches Romney. Trump had to swamp the state with people who wouldn't have showed up for Kasich.  But Hillary would've worked the same ground-game to get the minorities that kept it so close

Well, if she'd win FL, she'd win NV. What would've happened in the FL senate race with this map?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Kasich/Haley 357 52.5%
Hillary/Kasine 45.5%


Oregon goes to Kasich like this :

Kasich 47.4%
Hillary 47.2%
Stein 4%
Johnson 1.6%

[Mr. Smith]

Clinton
Kasich


And I'm being generous about Colorado and Nevada here. No way Kasich wins Florida even if he matches Romney. Trump had to swamp the state with people who wouldn't have showed up for Kasich.  But Hillary would've worked the same ground-game to get the minorities that kept it so close

Well, if she'd win FL, she'd win NV. What would've happened in the FL senate race with this map?

If Rubio returns, he wins, probably by fewer points though.

If CLC or DeSantis, who knows...but I'd feel better if it were Grayson rather than Privileged Pat. Sorry, but Murphy seemed doomed anyway, just like Strickland in Ohio.

[Sumner 1868]

I don't know, but he would not have boosted the Republican margin in the industrial/post-industrial centers in the Midwest and that alone would keep WI/PA/MI in the Democratic column while Iowa is closer and just slightly R. He likely loses Florida as well due to his long record of anti-Social Security votes in Congress.

[AtorBoltox]

Why exactly do people here think that a candidate who managed to win only their home state in the primaries would be some super unstoppable juggernaut in the general?

[TheLeftwardTide]

Why exactly do people here think that a candidate who managed to win only their home state in the primaries would be some super unstoppable juggernaut in the general?

muh centrist, fiscally conservative socially moderate ideology

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Why exactly do people here think that a candidate who managed to win only their home state in the primaries would be some super unstoppable juggernaut in the general?

There have been some very electable candidates who fared poorly in the primary, but nonetheless, Kasich is no juggernaut.

[IceSpear]

Probably. He wouldn't have invigorated the Deplorables like Trump did.

Whether or not Kasich wins in a landslide depends on the media. If the polls showed him winning in a landslide, they'd possibly start to viciously attack him and lessen the negative coverage of Hillary in order to keep up the horserace. If their coverage of her stays the same as it did in real life, he definitely wins in a landslide.

[Burke859]

The big unanswered question of 2016 will always be whether the GOP could have won with an establishment Republican, by winning greater numbers among all voting blocs instead of just primarily the rural areas and the WWC.

Romney in 2012 fell short in Florida by about 1 percent, lost Ohio by 3, and lost Virginia by about 4 percent.  We might assume that Kasich would have beaten Hillary in all three states, given that Kasich was from Ohio, and given that Hillary was just all around a weaker candidate than Obama, and that there was the normal 8 year itch to turn the White House over to the out party in 2016.  Also, Kasich would have played well in NOVA.

That gets Kasich to 266 electoral votes.  Finding him another state gets tricky.  Obama won New Hampshire, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Colorado by 5-6 points each in 2012.  Kasich would basically have to eke out a victory in one or more of those states to win.  The election would basically be a toss-up with perhaps a very slight D tilt.  Wisconsin and Michigan would probably have remained lean-D blue wall states.

It's possible that Republicans would have maxed out at 266 electoral votes in a universe where Trump doesn't change the template in WWC areas and rural areas.  In that sense, Trumpism might outlast Trump.

[bagelman]

No, as in not significantly.

[RINO Tom]

Without any flare, Kasich v. Hillary race would simply end up as a referendum on Obama's 3rd term.

Hillary really wasn't an avatar for Obama's third term. Young people and minority voters were not excited for her like they were for Obama. Trump being the brash, race baiting character he is, is why the race was even close.

A boring Hillary vs. Kasich race, would have led to a sizeable GOP win in the popular vote. Not because Kasich was an amazing candidate, but because Hillary was a boring one. He wins North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio,Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Florida. Hillary holds on to PA/MI/WI because Kasich doesn't ramp up the angry white male vote in the Midwest like Trump did.

ETA: The electoral vote would be closer, but Kasich wins the popular vote convincingly.

This demographic is a fabrication by Democrats who are heartbroken that the Midwest ditched them.  To see the change in characterization of the region on this forum between 2012 and 2016 is a perfect example of how politics is a team sport for some.

[Rookie Yinzer]

This demographic is a fabrication by Democrats who are heartbroken that the Midwest ditched them.  To see the change in characterization of the region on this forum between 2012 and 2016 is a perfect example of how politics is a team sport for some.

Like.... did you miss Trump's entire campaign? Sure, let's pretend that white resentment didn't play a part in his victory. I'm not heartbroken over anything, btw. If the Democrats had actually energized their reliable base instead of begging white collar Republicans to ditch Trump, they would have won.

[IceSpear]

Why exactly do people here think that a candidate who managed to win only their home state in the primaries would be some super unstoppable juggernaut in the general?

This is a silly argument.

"Why exactly do people think Mike Castle or Richard Lugar would be good candidates in the general? They couldn't even beat Christine O'Donnell or Richard Mourdock in the primary!"

[AtorBoltox]

Why exactly do people here think that a candidate who managed to win only their home state in the primaries would be some super unstoppable juggernaut in the general?

This is a silly argument.

"Why exactly do people think Mike Castle or Richard Lugar would be good candidates in the general? They couldn't even beat Christine O'Donnell or Richard Mourdock in the primary!"

Kasich might have won, but it’s absurd for people to say that he’d ‘easily’ beat Hillary and get 350 electoral votes when the primaries clearly showed he was not a good candidate.

[IceSpear]

Why exactly do people here think that a candidate who managed to win only their home state in the primaries would be some super unstoppable juggernaut in the general?

This is a silly argument.

"Why exactly do people think Mike Castle or Richard Lugar would be good candidates in the general? They couldn't even beat Christine O'Donnell or Richard Mourdock in the primary!"

Kasich might have won, but it’s absurd for people to say that he’d ‘easily’ beat Hillary and get 350 electoral votes when the primaries clearly showed he was not a good candidate.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2006&fips=18&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=1&minper=0