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Author Topic: Change: The 2016 election game. (Sign Up & Rules thread)  (Read 12587 times)
Congrats Senator Manny Sethi
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« Reply #75 on: February 03, 2018, 04:53:26 pm »

If it's alright, once the DEM Polls are in, I would like to make a primary prediction. I'll update each prediction per Turn and look at the stats to see how well each Candidate may do.
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Grassr00ts
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« Reply #76 on: February 03, 2018, 05:04:29 pm »

If it's alright, once the DEM Polls are in, I would like to make a primary prediction. I'll update each prediction per Turn and look at the stats to see how well each Candidate may do.

They're in. Feel free to make any constructive commentary. Smiley
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Congrats Senator Manny Sethi
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« Reply #77 on: February 03, 2018, 05:34:06 pm »


45% chance for Bredesen Nomination
25% chance for Dayton Nomination
25% chance for Sanders Nomination

I think that Phil Bredesen can carry the south if he can attract enough conservatives and Attack Sanders enough. He may also be able to carry several other conservative states simply because he is a Conservative DEM.

Dayton and Sanders, However, will have a slugfest. They will both be seen as Progressives with Bernie only saying that he's a democratic Socialist. If Dayton can hit him enough times on that, he may be able to focus on Bredesen then. Sanders will just have to appeal to the masses and attempt to get the youth vote. All in all, unless one of the two becomes a strong number two, Bredesen could ride to the Nomination.


37% chance of Cruz Nomination
35% chance of Portman Nomination
20% chance of Paul Nomination

For the Republicans, it might be extremely tight, but Cruz may be able to take enough conservatives and Paul may be able to take enough Libertarians and youth to defeat Portman. Portman, at the same time, will have to attempt to attract all 3 groups and keep the establishment happy with him, which won't be an easy feat. All in all, Portman may be doomed to lose if he doesn't find a way to attract those 3 specific groups and shake off the establishment.



Cruz: 272/46.4%
Bredesen: 266/47.3%

And that's my election Prediction. Honestly, a lot can change from then to now, but at this point, it looks like it'll be Cruz v Bredesen.

Thoughts?
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terp40hitch
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« Reply #78 on: February 03, 2018, 06:42:17 pm »


45% chance for Bredesen Nomination
25% chance for Dayton Nomination
25% chance for Sanders Nomination

I think that Phil Bredesen can carry the south if he can attract enough conservatives and Attack Sanders enough. He may also be able to carry several other conservative states simply because he is a Conservative DEM.

Dayton and Sanders, However, will have a slugfest. They will both be seen as Progressives with Bernie only saying that he's a democratic Socialist. If Dayton can hit him enough times on that, he may be able to focus on Bredesen then. Sanders will just have to appeal to the masses and attempt to get the youth vote. All in all, unless one of the two becomes a strong number two, Bredesen could ride to the Nomination.


37% chance of Cruz Nomination
35% chance of Portman Nomination
20% chance of Paul Nomination

For the Republicans, it might be extremely tight, but Cruz may be able to take enough conservatives and Paul may be able to take enough Libertarians and youth to defeat Portman. Portman, at the same time, will have to attempt to attract all 3 groups and keep the establishment happy with him, which won't be an easy feat. All in all, Portman may be doomed to lose if he doesn't find a way to attract those 3 specific groups and shake off the establishment.



Cruz: 272/46.4%
Bredesen: 266/47.3%

And that's my election Prediction. Honestly, a lot can change from then to now, but at this point, it looks like it'll be Cruz v Bredesen.

Thoughts?

I think with the Sandoval endorsement Portman may be able to pick up Nevada but Cruz would beat Paul in Lousiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and West Virginia.
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« Reply #79 on: February 03, 2018, 06:49:00 pm »

Patrick (and probably Sestak) would be favored in their home states if the're still in the race.
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Congrats Senator Manny Sethi
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« Reply #80 on: February 03, 2018, 07:19:30 pm »

Patrick (and probably Sestak) would be favored in their home states if the're still in the race.

Unless the slush fund is continuesly talked about.
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Congrats Senator Manny Sethi
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« Reply #81 on: February 03, 2018, 07:27:41 pm »

Could we also get polling for South Carolina, Nevada, and Florida for both parties, so we know how each Candidate is doing in those vital early primary states?
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« Reply #82 on: February 03, 2018, 07:42:13 pm »

Could we also get polling for South Carolina, Nevada, and Florida for both parties, so we know how each Candidate is doing in those vital early primary states?
Polling for SC and NV starts in October.
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Congrats Senator Manny Sethi
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« Reply #83 on: February 03, 2018, 07:43:28 pm »

Could we also get polling for South Carolina, Nevada, and Florida for both parties, so we know how each Candidate is doing in those vital early primary states?
Polling for SC and NV starts in October.

Alright.
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« Reply #84 on: February 03, 2018, 10:34:45 pm »
« Edited: February 03, 2018, 11:00:46 pm by GO EAGLES! »

Sestak Announcement Speech
Independence Hall - June 19, 2015

Image Link

Ladies and gentlemen...

My life has been dedicated to serving America. To helping protect our freedoms. My father fought to defend democracy in the face of tyrannical regimes across the globe in World War II. I served in the Navy for thirty years. After that, I served in Congress for four years, making sure I always put the people first. I have always been devoted to democracy and serving the people first and foremost, as was my father before me.

So it pains my heart to see what's happening in this country right now. Throughout the country, America's wealthiest - Wall Street Bankers, Corporate Executives, political machine leaders, special interests - are all gathering in luxury office rooms... in Washington, in New York, in San Francisco, in Chicago, in... Boston. They are gathering and they are deciding who will be the Democratic Nominee for President.

They may have already decided. I don't know. They've already propped up their foil... the spooky bogeyman socialist Senator Sanders, who they're hoping will push the masses to vote for the loyal party establishment candidates. On the other side, the Republicans are trying to do the same thing with Senator Cruz. They both want the same thing: a President who will look out for their interests above all others.

When I ran for Senate five years ago, the Democratic establishment refused to support me in the election. They preferred to have a conservative, Wall Street Republican over an outspoken liberal, progressive veteran. During the Iraq war, I was fighting wastefulness and inefficency on defense from inside the Navy, while the Democratic establishment silently signed off on George Bush's Wastefulness as he handed over billions of taxpayer dollars in a gift to the military-industrial complex. In fact, it was the Democratic establishment, along with their corporate backers, who allowed this unnecessary, costly war in Iraq to happen in the first place, and it's time to let them know that we have had enough!

I first ran for Congress after my daughter beat cancer in 2005. It was thanks to TRICARE, a government health insurance program for veteran families, that she was able to get the treatment she needed to survive through it. If it hadn't been for that program, I... I... (holding back tears)...I would have lost her ten years ago. And it was then that I thought: "Why shouldn't everyone have access to the same treatment. No one should have to go through losing a loved one because they couldn't pay for healthcare costs."

I decided to run for Congress because I wanted to give that opportunity to everyone. And we've made tremendous progress: we passed Obamacare five years ago. But it's still not enough. If we want affordable healthcare for all, we need a strong public option, which was removed from the Obamacare bill by Democratic corporate interests. We need to keep pushing. And yet, some of the candidates in the Democratic field want to undo the progress we've already made on affordable healthcare.

And this ultimately speaks to the main issue with today's politics: both parties, the Democrats and the Republicans, are dominated at the top by these corporate interests. Goldman Sachs. Lockheed. Countless other banks, hedge funds, and massive corporations, holding the levers of our government. And I think we ought to remind the corporations of something I said five years back. I think we ought to remind them that the words of our Constitution that was signed in the very building behind me are we, the people. Not we, the corporations, nor we, Wall Street. And that is why I am running to be the President - the People's Presdent - of the United States. Corporations have held far too much power for far too long, and we need to send a bold statement reminding them who holds the power in our democracy. WE, THE PEOPLE.

Thank you all, and God bless America.
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terp40hitch
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« Reply #85 on: February 04, 2018, 09:10:43 am »



45% chance for Bredesen Nomination
25% chance for Dayton Nomination
25% chance for Sanders Nomination




37% chance of Cruz Nomination
35% chance of Portman Nomination
20% chance of Paul Nomination

I see Hodges's winning SC if he stays in and Napiolanio or Sestak winning Nevada making it a much tighter race
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« Reply #86 on: February 04, 2018, 11:04:22 am »


45% chance for Bredesen Nomination
25% chance for Dayton Nomination
25% chance for Sanders Nomination

I think that Phil Bredesen can carry the south if he can attract enough conservatives and Attack Sanders enough. He may also be able to carry several other conservative states simply because he is a Conservative DEM.

Dayton and Sanders, However, will have a slugfest. They will both be seen as Progressives with Bernie only saying that he's a democratic Socialist. If Dayton can hit him enough times on that, he may be able to focus on Bredesen then. Sanders will just have to appeal to the masses and attempt to get the youth vote. All in all, unless one of the two becomes a strong number two, Bredesen could ride to the Nomination.


37% chance of Cruz Nomination
35% chance of Portman Nomination
20% chance of Paul Nomination

For the Republicans, it might be extremely tight, but Cruz may be able to take enough conservatives and Paul may be able to take enough Libertarians and youth to defeat Portman. Portman, at the same time, will have to attempt to attract all 3 groups and keep the establishment happy with him, which won't be an easy feat. All in all, Portman may be doomed to lose if he doesn't find a way to attract those 3 specific groups and shake off the establishment.



Cruz: 272/46.4%
Bredesen: 266/47.3%

And that's my election Prediction. Honestly, a lot can change from then to now, but at this point, it looks like it'll be Cruz v Bredesen.

Thoughts?
Rand Paul winning in the South? I don't know about that, those states seem like a better fit for Santorum or Cruz.
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« Reply #87 on: February 04, 2018, 12:12:36 pm »


45% chance for Bredesen Nomination
25% chance for Dayton Nomination
25% chance for Sanders Nomination

I think that Phil Bredesen can carry the south if he can attract enough conservatives and Attack Sanders enough. He may also be able to carry several other conservative states simply because he is a Conservative DEM.

Dayton and Sanders, However, will have a slugfest. They will both be seen as Progressives with Bernie only saying that he's a democratic Socialist. If Dayton can hit him enough times on that, he may be able to focus on Bredesen then. Sanders will just have to appeal to the masses and attempt to get the youth vote. All in all, unless one of the two becomes a strong number two, Bredesen could ride to the Nomination.


37% chance of Cruz Nomination
35% chance of Portman Nomination
20% chance of Paul Nomination

For the Republicans, it might be extremely tight, but Cruz may be able to take enough conservatives and Paul may be able to take enough Libertarians and youth to defeat Portman. Portman, at the same time, will have to attempt to attract all 3 groups and keep the establishment happy with him, which won't be an easy feat. All in all, Portman may be doomed to lose if he doesn't find a way to attract those 3 specific groups and shake off the establishment.



Cruz: 272/46.4%
Bredesen: 266/47.3%

And that's my election Prediction. Honestly, a lot can change from then to now, but at this point, it looks like it'll be Cruz v Bredesen.

Thoughts?
Rand Paul winning in the South? I don't know about that, those states seem like a better fit for Santorum or Cruz.

Yeah. I think a Paul coalition would be spread across the map, including some of the western desert states, some of New England, maybe parts of the Upper South, and states like CO and AK.
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Congrats Senator Manny Sethi
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« Reply #88 on: February 04, 2018, 01:15:07 pm »

Can we do Candidate interviews?

Also, I reccomend writing up the next turn's National and State Polls as well as the debates today so you can post them all at once tomorrow.
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Grassr00ts
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« Reply #89 on: February 04, 2018, 01:18:03 pm »

Can we do Candidate interviews?

Also, I reccomend writing up the next turn's National and State Polls as well as the debates today so you can post them all at once tomorrow.

Candidate interviews can only be done for candidates over 15% in the national polling, and its one per term.
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Congrats Senator Manny Sethi
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« Reply #90 on: February 04, 2018, 01:19:36 pm »

Can we do Candidate interviews?

Also, I reccomend writing up the next turn's National and State Polls as well as the debates today so you can post them all at once tomorrow.

Candidate interviews can only be done for candidates over 15% in the national polling, and its one per term.

So someone like Bredesen and Cruz can have interviews and those might boost the Candidate in several Polls?
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« Reply #91 on: February 04, 2018, 01:43:44 pm »

Why is everyone attacking Patrick? He is at 7% and attack ads hurt the other candidate too sometimes
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Congrats Senator Manny Sethi
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« Reply #92 on: February 04, 2018, 01:49:33 pm »

Why is everyone attacking Patrick? He is at 7% and attack ads hurt the other candidate too sometimes

Politics is a dirty, dirty business. No matter how high or low you are in the Polls, if you have scandals and something to be discussed, then expect to be attacked on it. It'll also be possible that doing such a thing is a Kamikaze move, in which a candidate is going down but they take someone down with them. It can happen, though it's rare.
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terp40hitch
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« Reply #93 on: February 04, 2018, 01:52:53 pm »

Why is everyone attacking Patrick? He is at 7% and attack ads hurt the other candidate too sometimes

Politics is a dirty, dirty business. No matter how high or low you are in the Polls, if you have scandals and something to be discussed, then expect to be attacked on it. It'll also be possible that doing such a thing is a Kamikaze move, in which a candidate is going down but they take someone down with them. It can happen, though it's rare.

But why not when later near the caucus and primary so the attacks could be fatal to the campaign
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Congrats Senator Manny Sethi
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« Reply #94 on: February 04, 2018, 01:56:18 pm »

Why is everyone attacking Patrick? He is at 7% and attack ads hurt the other candidate too sometimes

Politics is a dirty, dirty business. No matter how high or low you are in the Polls, if you have scandals and something to be discussed, then expect to be attacked on it. It'll also be possible that doing such a thing is a Kamikaze move, in which a candidate is going down but they take someone down with them. It can happen, though it's rare.

But why not when later near the caucus and primary so the attacks could be fatal to the campaign

Knock them out quickly. At the same time, Patrick practically left himself wide open. Had he not attacked Bredesen when he was so low in the Polls, then he would've been seen as a better Candidate.
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Homosexual Extremist
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« Reply #95 on: February 04, 2018, 05:58:01 pm »

Can we do Candidate interviews?

Also, I reccomend writing up the next turn's National and State Polls as well as the debates today so you can post them all at once tomorrow.

Candidate interviews can only be done for candidates over 15% in the national polling, and its one per term.
Did not see this before posting my update. I’ll adjust accordingly.
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« Reply #96 on: February 04, 2018, 07:14:42 pm »

Fu ck it, can I just take Hillary?
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Congrats Senator Manny Sethi
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« Reply #97 on: February 04, 2018, 07:26:23 pm »

Fu ck it, can I just take Hillary?

RIP any chance of a Bredesen and other Democrat candidacy unless the Emails and Benghazi still happened.
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« Reply #98 on: February 04, 2018, 07:31:59 pm »

Fu ck it, can I just take Hillary?

RIP any chance of a Bredesen and other Democrat candidacy unless the Emails and Benghazi still happened.

They did since it is the same thing except candidates
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Congrats Senator Manny Sethi
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« Reply #99 on: February 04, 2018, 07:39:12 pm »

Fu ck it, can I just take Hillary?

RIP any chance of a Bredesen and other Democrat candidacy unless the Emails and Benghazi still happened.

They did since it is the same thing except candidates

Maybe you shouldn't play as Hillary at this time. You can choose Gov. John Kasich, Sen. Marco Rubio, Gov. Andrew Cuomo, or Sen. John Edwards, as I don't think anyone wants the hot potato Hillary Clinton had.
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