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  TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11
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Author Topic: TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11  (Read 2471 times)
LimoLiberal
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« on: January 29, 2018, 05:10:14 pm »

http://tennesseestar.com/2018/01/29/poll-blackburn-leads-bredesen-by-11-in-tennessee-u-s-senate-general-election-matchup-50-to-39/

Matchups

Blackburn (R) - 51
Bredesen (D) - 40

Fincher (R) - 38
Bredesen (D) - 41

The blue wave narrative is in free fall.

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Lean Branson
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« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2018, 05:11:17 pm »

Numbers minus commentary:

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Mondale
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« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2018, 05:28:42 pm »

Blackburn only at 50%!?

Finished. Absolutely finished
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2018, 05:34:50 pm »

Also, the extent to which Fincher is underperforming leads me to believe that this is a name recognition thing. Bredesen has consistently trailed Blackburn in that regard (which is sort of insane, given that she's never been a statewide candidate before)
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KingSweden
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« Reply #4 on: January 29, 2018, 05:44:10 pm »

Also, the extent to which Fincher is underperforming leads me to believe that this is a name recognition thing. Bredesen has consistently trailed Blackburn in that regard (which is sort of insane, given that she's never been a statewide candidate before)

She’s a pretty big presence on conservative media, no?
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ERM64man
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« Reply #5 on: January 29, 2018, 05:44:18 pm »

Tennessee is unlikely to be won by a Democrat, even in a blue wave. South Carolina, Louisiana, Alaska, Indiana, Montana, Texas, and Kansas are far more winnable than Tennessee.
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #6 on: January 29, 2018, 05:45:56 pm »

Also, the extent to which Fincher is underperforming leads me to believe that this is a name recognition thing. Bredesen has consistently trailed Blackburn in that regard (which is sort of insane, given that she's never been a statewide candidate before)

She’s a pretty big presence on conservative media, no?

Yeah, but he's been elected governor twice, which you'd think would place him in a league above some media-savvy representative. Apparently not.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #7 on: January 29, 2018, 05:46:39 pm »

Also, the extent to which Fincher is underperforming leads me to believe that this is a name recognition thing. Bredesen has consistently trailed Blackburn in that regard (which is sort of insane, given that she's never been a statewide candidate before)

She is a longtime congressman who represents areas that are in both the Memphis and Nashville media markets, so I imagine local news must cover her quite often in both parts of the state.
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Lok
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« Reply #8 on: January 29, 2018, 05:56:36 pm »

Yes, the blue wave is gone because Blackburn is leading by double digits in a normally republican state...

Please stop the concern trolling...
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #9 on: January 29, 2018, 05:59:56 pm »

Blackburn will probably win, but I think Bredesen will keep it within single digits.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #10 on: January 29, 2018, 06:03:47 pm »

Also, the extent to which Fincher is underperforming leads me to believe that this is a name recognition thing. Bredesen has consistently trailed Blackburn in that regard (which is sort of insane, given that she's never been a statewide candidate before)

She’s a pretty big presence on conservative media, no?

Yeah, but he's been elected governor twice, which you'd think would place him in a league above some media-savvy representative. Apparently not.

In the article, it says that Bredesen has higher name recognition than Blackburn:
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King Lear
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« Reply #11 on: January 29, 2018, 06:09:04 pm »

These numbers seem really accurate, Bresden will lose to Blackburn (hence why I rate this race Safe Republican), However he well probably come closer then any Democrat since 2006 to actually making the race moderately competitive.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #12 on: January 29, 2018, 06:20:28 pm »

Considering the fact that Republicans routinely romp in Tennessee by anywhere from 20-50 points, an 11 point win would actually be excellent evidence of a Democratic wave.

But yes, this race is safe R, unless it turns out that Blackburn is a pedophile.
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #13 on: January 29, 2018, 06:29:27 pm »

Also, the extent to which Fincher is underperforming leads me to believe that this is a name recognition thing. Bredesen has consistently trailed Blackburn in that regard (which is sort of insane, given that she's never been a statewide candidate before)

She’s a pretty big presence on conservative media, no?

Yeah, but he's been elected governor twice, which you'd think would place him in a league above some media-savvy representative. Apparently not.

In the article, it says that Bredesen has higher name recognition than Blackburn:
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lol, whoops, I missed that. She did have a name rec advantage in the poll we got before this one.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #14 on: January 29, 2018, 07:15:24 pm »

Confirms a close race in Tennessee which is disastrous for the GOP.
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Shameless Bernie Hack
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« Reply #15 on: January 29, 2018, 07:21:06 pm »

The point has always been that Bredesen will make the NRSC spend money in TN, not that he'd win.

Eyes on the prize, folks.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #16 on: January 29, 2018, 07:51:46 pm »

Never understood why people here thought this or Texas were remotely likely pick ups
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ERM64man
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« Reply #17 on: January 29, 2018, 08:06:37 pm »

Never understood why people here thought this or Texas were remotely likely pick ups
Texas is more likely for Democrats to pick up, although still unlikely.
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Andy Beshear Have My Babies
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« Reply #18 on: January 29, 2018, 08:08:02 pm »
« Edited: January 29, 2018, 08:09:41 pm by DTC »

Considering the fact that Republicans routinely romp in Tennessee by anywhere from 20-50 points, an 11 point win would actually be excellent evidence of a Democratic wave.

But yes, this race is safe R, unless it turns out that Blackburn is a pedophile.

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Andy Beshear Have My Babies
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« Reply #19 on: January 29, 2018, 08:10:12 pm »

Wait wtf, why is this sample only 5% black? The black population in TN is 17%, so I'd expect the electorate to at least be 15% black.

And why is the sample 46% republican? Surely there are less Republicans in TN than that (although I bet indies here are pretty titanium R anyways).
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UWS
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« Reply #20 on: January 29, 2018, 08:39:52 pm »

Tennessee is unlikely to be won by a Democrat, even in a blue wave. South Carolina, Louisiana, Alaska, Indiana, Montana, Texas, and Kansas are far more winnable than Tennessee.

I guess not even Al Gore would have won Tennessee today.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #21 on: January 29, 2018, 08:55:38 pm »

Considering the fact that Republicans routinely romp in Tennessee by anywhere from 20-50 points, an 11 point win would actually be excellent evidence of a Democratic wave.

But yes, this race is safe R, unless it turns out that Blackburn is a pedophile.
I wouldn't be too sure about calling this race safe R. It's over 10 months until the election and ten thousand things can happen between now and then. I'd probably say lean R for now, this race could get as close as 2006.
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TomC
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« Reply #22 on: January 29, 2018, 09:34:36 pm »

Wait wtf, why is this sample only 5% black? The black population in TN is 17%, so I'd expect the electorate to at least be 15% black.

I'd say 12%-14% is likely.
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TomC
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« Reply #23 on: January 29, 2018, 09:38:11 pm »

Considering the fact that Republicans routinely romp in Tennessee by anywhere from 20-50 points, an 11 point win would actually be excellent evidence of a Democratic wave.

But yes, this race is safe R, unless it turns out that Blackburn is a pedophile.

No serious Democrat has run since 2006 so 20-50% is the floor. Bredesen is far from a nobody and Blackburn is not the moderate patrician TN GOP is used to electing.

Bredesen will be within 9.69% Smiley
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Xing
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« Reply #24 on: January 30, 2018, 01:20:38 am »

A D swing of only 15% from 2016? Clearly 2018 will be a disaster for Democrats.
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