TN-Triton Research: Blackburn +11

[LimoLiberal]

http://tennesseestar.com/2018/01/29/poll-blackburn-leads-bredesen-by-11-in-tennessee-u-s-senate-general-election-matchup-50-to-39/

Matchups

Blackburn (R) - 51
Bredesen (D) - 40

Fincher (R) - 38
Bredesen (D) - 41

The blue wave narrative is in free fall.

[Doimper]

Numbers minus commentary:

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[junior chįmp]

Blackburn only at 50%!?

Finished. Absolutely finished

[Doimper]

Also, the extent to which Fincher is underperforming leads me to believe that this is a name recognition thing. Bredesen has consistently trailed Blackburn in that regard (which is sort of insane, given that she's never been a statewide candidate before)

[KingSweden]

Also, the extent to which Fincher is underperforming leads me to believe that this is a name recognition thing. Bredesen has consistently trailed Blackburn in that regard (which is sort of insane, given that she's never been a statewide candidate before)

She’s a pretty big presence on conservative media, no?

[I’m not Stu]

Tennessee is unlikely to be won by a Democrat, even in a blue wave. South Carolina, Louisiana, Alaska, Indiana, Montana, Texas, and Kansas are far more winnable than Tennessee.

[Doimper]

Also, the extent to which Fincher is underperforming leads me to believe that this is a name recognition thing. Bredesen has consistently trailed Blackburn in that regard (which is sort of insane, given that she's never been a statewide candidate before)

She’s a pretty big presence on conservative media, no?

Yeah, but he's been elected governor twice, which you'd think would place him in a league above some media-savvy representative. Apparently not.

[Jeppe]

Also, the extent to which Fincher is underperforming leads me to believe that this is a name recognition thing. Bredesen has consistently trailed Blackburn in that regard (which is sort of insane, given that she's never been a statewide candidate before)

She is a longtime congressman who represents areas that are in both the Memphis and Nashville media markets, so I imagine local news must cover her quite often in both parts of the state.

[Lachi]

Yes, the blue wave is gone because Blackburn is leading by double digits in a normally republican state...

Please stop the concern trolling...

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Blackburn will probably win, but I think Bredesen will keep it within single digits.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Also, the extent to which Fincher is underperforming leads me to believe that this is a name recognition thing. Bredesen has consistently trailed Blackburn in that regard (which is sort of insane, given that she's never been a statewide candidate before)

She’s a pretty big presence on conservative media, no?

Yeah, but he's been elected governor twice, which you'd think would place him in a league above some media-savvy representative. Apparently not.

In the article, it says that Bredesen has higher name recognition than Blackburn:

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[King Lear]

These numbers seem really accurate, Bresden will lose to Blackburn (hence why I rate this race Safe Republican), However he well probably come closer then any Democrat since 2006 to actually making the race moderately competitive.

[IceSpear]

Considering the fact that Republicans routinely romp in Tennessee by anywhere from 20-50 points, an 11 point win would actually be excellent evidence of a Democratic wave.

But yes, this race is safe R, unless it turns out that Blackburn is a pedophile.

[Doimper]

Also, the extent to which Fincher is underperforming leads me to believe that this is a name recognition thing. Bredesen has consistently trailed Blackburn in that regard (which is sort of insane, given that she's never been a statewide candidate before)

She’s a pretty big presence on conservative media, no?

Yeah, but he's been elected governor twice, which you'd think would place him in a league above some media-savvy representative. Apparently not.

In the article, it says that Bredesen has higher name recognition than Blackburn:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

lol, whoops, I missed that. She did have a name rec advantage in the poll we got before this one.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Confirms a close race in Tennessee which is disastrous for the GOP.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

The point has always been that Bredesen will make the NRSC spend money in TN, not that he'd win.

Eyes on the prize, folks.

[UncleSam]

Never understood why people here thought this or Texas were remotely likely pick ups

[I’m not Stu]

Never understood why people here thought this or Texas were remotely likely pick ups

Texas is more likely for Democrats to pick up, although still unlikely.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Considering the fact that Republicans routinely romp in Tennessee by anywhere from 20-50 points, an 11 point win would actually be excellent evidence of a Democratic wave.

But yes, this race is safe R, unless it turns out that Blackburn is a pedophile.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Wait wtf, why is this sample only 5% black? The black population in TN is 17%, so I'd expect the electorate to at least be 15% black.

And why is the sample 46% republican? Surely there are less Republicans in TN than that (although I bet indies here are pretty titanium R anyways).

[UWS]

Tennessee is unlikely to be won by a Democrat, even in a blue wave. South Carolina, Louisiana, Alaska, Indiana, Montana, Texas, and Kansas are far more winnable than Tennessee.

I guess not even Al Gore would have won Tennessee today.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Considering the fact that Republicans routinely romp in Tennessee by anywhere from 20-50 points, an 11 point win would actually be excellent evidence of a Democratic wave.

But yes, this race is safe R, unless it turns out that Blackburn is a pedophile.

I wouldn't be too sure about calling this race safe R. It's over 10 months until the election and ten thousand things can happen between now and then. I'd probably say lean R for now, this race could get as close as 2006.

[TomC]

Wait wtf, why is this sample only 5% black? The black population in TN is 17%, so I'd expect the electorate to at least be 15% black.

I'd say 12%-14% is likely.

[TomC]

Considering the fact that Republicans routinely romp in Tennessee by anywhere from 20-50 points, an 11 point win would actually be excellent evidence of a Democratic wave.

But yes, this race is safe R, unless it turns out that Blackburn is a pedophile.

No serious Democrat has run since 2006 so 20-50% is the floor. Bredesen is far from a nobody and Blackburn is not the moderate patrician TN GOP is used to electing.

Bredesen will be within 9.69%

[Xing]

A D swing of only 15% from 2016? Clearly 2018 will be a disaster for Democrats.