MA-07: Boston City Councillor to Challenge Capuano

[Meatball Ron]

The Boston Globe is reporting that Boston City Councillor Ayanna Pressley, the first woman of color ever elected to the Council and the top vote getter in 2013 and 2015, will challenge Mike Capuano in the Democratic Primary for MA-07, which contains the majority of Boston and many of its racially diverse neighboring cities/towns.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/01/30/ayanna-pressley-challenge-michael-capuano-primary-for-congress/BxOGmFtBk9uOLFbQO2d9YI/story.html

Both are unabashed progressives, and this is likely a race that will be fought on generational (and perhaps identity-based) lines rather than ideological ones. Capuano will emphasize his record of progressive policy stances and close attention to local issues, whereas Pressley will run on a message of bringing a new perspective.

How do people handicap this race? It's worth noting that while Capuano embodies the "old school" Boston liberal (Irish-Italian former Mayor of Somerville), this neighborhood is now 55% racial minorities. I'd like to think the voters have no reason to get rid of Capuano and appreciate his strong record, but Pressley is a very strong candidate and a particularly good fit for the national moment.

I'd start this at Likely Capuano, given his popularity and lack of clear ideological difference from Pressley/the district, but this could very easily become Lean Capuano or a toss-up depending on the dynamics of the race / the national climate.

Either way, Pressley has a promising future, and while I'm supporting Capuano, I hope she gets this seat when he retires.

[Jeppe]

Endorsed. Capuano has been a political joke ever since he lost to Martha Coakley, Pressley is just doing the humane thing by primarying him. Boston deserves better.

[Brittain33]

I don't see that Pressley will get any traction against Capuano. He is a strong, hard-working incumbent with a liberal voting record and I don't think there will be any ethnic or racial polarization in the primary.

[McGovernForPrez]

I like Ayanna Pressley and voted for her for city council at large but I don't think she has a real chance at winning this race. She really has no way of distinguishing herself from Capuano who is a staunch progressive hailing from the most liberal part of the district, Somerville.

I worked on the campaign of Tito Jackson who challenged Mayor Marty Walsh and if Tito couldn't mobilize enough black voters against Walsh I doubt Pressley will be able to do the same against Capuano. The other important thing I learned from that campaign is that non-black minorities aren't as likely to fall behind a candidate just because they are also a minority. While the district is minority majority it is still plurality white and only 26% black.

I can't see Capuano losing this race. He's a strong fit for the district ideologically and he has a ton of cash on hand. I certainly plan on voting for him in the primary.

[McGovernForPrez]

Endorsed. Capuano has been a political joke ever since he lost to Martha Coakley, Pressley is just doing the humane thing by primarying him. Boston deserves better.

Capuano has been great for this district. He's a great ideological fit and he's always fought to bring home bacon in the form of federal funding for the MBTA. By electing Pressley we end up throwing away all the seniority Capuano had for someone who isn't substantially different from Capuano on policy. Instead of running a pointless race for congress I'd rather Pressley focus on actually doing something in city council, such as fighting Walsh's cuts to public education.

[Jeppe]

At the very least, I hope this positions her well to become his successor. Boston seems to have a shortage of good politicians like her.

[McGovernForPrez]

Just an important thing to note about Ayanna Pressley as a candidate. While she is a city councilor who has ran for city wide office, she has never garnered more than 25% of the vote here due to the way our councilor at-large elections operate here. She's never ran a head to head race before and that severely hinders her strength as a candidate.

I'd probably rate this race as safe Capuano.

[McGovernForPrez]

Just an important thing to note about Ayanna Pressley as a candidate. While she is a city councilor who has ran for city wide office, she has never garnered more than 25% of the vote here due to the way our councilor at-large elections operate here. She's never ran a head to head race before and that severely hinders her strength as a candidate.

I'd probably rate this race as safe Capuano.

25% of the total vote is huge in a race where voters can select four candidates. That means she was selected on the vast majority of those voting for city council.

Races for multi-member districts shouldn't be analyzed as a percentage of the total vote, but a percentage of the number of ballots cast. I have the same issue with analysis of NJ Assembly races.

For example, in 2017 Pressley only received 21.64% of the total vote, but she was selected on 59.66% of all ballots cast in the city (including those who don't vote for City Council at all). That's significant, and I'm sure Capuano is taking her as seriously as he has taken any opponent.

The point is she has no experience running a head to head race which hurts her chances significantly. Also, while she garnered votes on 58% of all ballots, it's a lot easier to get 58% of the vote when voters have to pick 4 of the candidates. Once you're an incumbent it's really really easy to get re-elected as an at large candidate.

[Figueira]

Wow, everyone's trying to primary incumbents in MA.

Unlike Brianna Wu and Tahirah Amatul-Wadud (the person running against Neal) this person is an actual elected official so should probably be taken more seriously as a potential winner. But Capuano seems fairly uncontroversial so unless that changes he will almost certainly win.

[I’m not Stu]

Air Force veteran Christopher Voehl is the most serious challenger to Steve Lynch.

[Figueira]

Air Force veteran Christopher Voehl is the most serious challenger to Steve Lynch.

Oh right I forgot about him.

[KingSweden]

This is as quixotic as Brianna Wu’s run

[Meatball Ron]

This is as quixotic as Brianna Wu’s run

See Figueira's comment above -- Pressley is much more serious than Wu. I don't think she'll win though.

[Figueira]

This is as quixotic as Brianna Wu’s run

See Figueira's comment above -- Pressley is much more serious than Wu. I don't think she'll win though.

Well I suppose it's possible that Wu will do better, but it just seems like a city councillor from a city that overlaps heavily with the district would be a better candidate than a random video game developer/minor Internet celebrity with no ties to the district.

[McGovernForPrez]

Wow, everyone's trying to primary incumbents in MA.

Unlike Brianna Wu and Tahirah Amatul-Wadud (the person running against Neal) this person is an actual elected official so should probably be taken more seriously as a potential winner. But Capuano seems fairly uncontroversial so unless that changes he will almost certainly win.

I blame Seth Moulton for it. Ever since he won everybody and their mother thinks they can be an MA congressman.

[McGovernForPrez]

This is as quixotic as Brianna Wu’s run

See Figueira's comment above -- Pressley is much more serious than Wu. I don't think she'll win though.

Well I suppose it's possible that Wu will do better, but it just seems like a city councillor from a city that overlaps heavily with the district would be a better candidate than a random video game developer/minor Internet celebrity with no ties to the district.

I also haven't really seen her campaign's presence at all around here. Wu's had plenty of time to pull one together by now.

[publicunofficial]

This seems like a "There's a massive bench of politicians under you who want your seat and some of them are tired of waiting for you to retire" kind of challenge.

[Meatball Ron]

This is as quixotic as Brianna Wu’s run

See Figueira's comment above -- Pressley is much more serious than Wu. I don't think she'll win though.

Well I suppose it's possible that Wu will do better, but it just seems like a city councillor from a city that overlaps heavily with the district would be a better candidate than a random video game developer/minor Internet celebrity with no ties to the district.

I think you misread my comment. We are saying the same thing.

[Cynthia]

Since she's an elected official I'd probably say it's likely Capuano rather than Safe.. lol

[Figueira]

This is as quixotic as Brianna Wu’s run

See Figueira's comment above -- Pressley is much more serious than Wu. I don't think she'll win though.

Well I suppose it's possible that Wu will do better, but it just seems like a city councillor from a city that overlaps heavily with the district would be a better candidate than a random video game developer/minor Internet celebrity with no ties to the district.

I think you misread my comment. We are saying the same thing.

I wasn't arguing with you.

[Holmes]

Not Chris Evans' uncle!

[KingSweden]

Ah fahk I can’t loose I’ve been in Cahngress fah twenty fahkin yeeahs

[Jeppe]

Hoping for a Pressley win. If she can get this close with just a month of campaigning, hopefully she can pull out a win.

[Strudelcutie4427]

I used to live close to this district basically I would say it breaks down as follows:
Cambridge: Capuano probably wins by 15
Somerville: Capuano wins big. (He used to be the mayor there)
Everett: Safe Capuano. Its next to Somerville
Chelsea: Very hispanic, but probably not going for a black candidate from boston. Likely Cap
East Boston: Safe Capuano
Allston-Brighton: Likely Capuano. Mostly white and home to BU and BC. Mix of students, yuppies, and hipsters. Most immigrants are Russians
Back Bay: Toss up. Its in Boston but its full of white liberals who always vote Capuano
Mission Hill: Probably Pressley. Very student heavy, but moonbat crazy students
Roxbury: Black inner city neighborhood Safe Pressley
Jamaica Plain/Hyde Park: Lean Pressley. Ethnically diverse, lot of students and hipsters
Mattapan: See Roxbury
Dorchester: Toss up. Many ethnic groups and evenly balanced. Not so crazy liberal as say Cambridge
West Milton: Toss up. Combination of black precincts next to Mattapan and rich white liberals
Randolph: Toss up. Black town but well rwmoved from Boston and sandwiched between purple towns Braintree, Holbrook, Avon and Canton

Overall Rating: Lean Capuano

[Brittain33]

I live in this district and can't think of any examples of liberals unseating liberals on demographics and half-generational differences (Capuano isn't that old) alone. If Capuano were a conservative who adopted some liberal votes, maybe, but he's fully embraced by progressives here and institutions and there is not discontent with him. The district is diverse but not overly so. Unless Pressley has some incredible off-the-charts organizing prowess I haven't seen, OR Sanders endorses her (which would be the real X factor; a Sanders faction swept Somerville city council last year), I don't see how Capuano doesn't cruise to a win again.

Maybe she's doing this as a dry run for future Boston races.