Roll Call - The 10 Most Vulnerable Senators in 2018

[MT Treasurer]

1. Heidi Heitkamp, D-ND (Tilt R)

2. Dean Heller, R-NV (Toss-up)
3. Claire McCaskill, D-MO (Toss-up)
4. Joe Donnelly, D-IN (Toss-up)
5. Bill Nelson, D-FL (Toss-up)

6. Joe Manchin, D-WV (Tilt D)
7. Jon Tester, D-MT (Tilt D)

8. Tammy Baldwin, D-WI (Leans D)

9. Sherrod Brown, D-OH (Likely D)
10. Bob Casey, D-PA (Likely D)

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/two-months-out-10-most-vulnerable-senators

[McGovernForPrez]

Joe Manchin is probably less vulnerable then Jon Tester imo. Otherwise this list seems alright.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Baldwin, Brown and Casey more vulnerable than Calgary Ted?
Yeah, right.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Baldwin, Brown and Casey more vulnerable than Calgary Ted?
Yeah, right.

[Politician]

Trash. Ted Cruz should be in the top 5.

[Politician]

Baldwin, Brown and Casey more vulnerable than Calgary Ted?
Yeah, right.

Inside Elections is the definition of trash.

[Pollster]

Casey's RCP average is +15
Cruz's RCP average is +4

[Xing]

Yes, clearly Baldwin and Casey are more vulnerable than Cruz And clearly Nevada isn't even slightly Democratic leaning, even though North Dakota is Republican-leaning. Not sure why Inside Elections thinks Baldwin is as vulnerable as Walker. I get that some people are still in shock about 2016, but the takeaway point should be that Wisconsin is a swing state that Democrats can't take for granted, not that it's a red state that will be unwinnable for them in 2 years.

[Skye]

I'd switch Casey for Cruz.

[adrac]

Garbage list. Where the hell is Ted Cruz.

[Mr. Smith]

Oh, come on, even Menendez makes more sense than Casey at this point.

[Yellowhammer]

IMO:

1. Heller (tilt D)
2. Heitkamp (tilt R)
3. Nelson (tossup)
4. McCaskill (tossup)

5. Donnelly (lean D)
6. Tester (lean D)
7. Cruz (likely R for now, getting close to lean R)
8. Manchin (likely D)
9. Brown (likely D)
10. Baldwin (likely D)

[IceSpear]

Any list that doesn't have Heller at the top can be thrown in the trash.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Cruz is not on this list, but Baldwin, Brown and Casey are? ayy lmao

[😥]

1.Dean Heller R-NV (Tilt D)
2.Heidi Heitkamp, D-ND (Tilt R)

3.Bill Nelson D-FL (Tossup)
4.Claire McCaskill, D-MO (Tossup)

5.Joe Donnelly, D-IN (Lean D)
6.Ted Cruz, R-TX (Lean R)
7.Jon Tester, D-MT (Lean D)
8.Joe Manchin, D-WV(Lean D)

9.Tammy Baldwin, D-WI (Likely D)
10.Sherrod Brown, D-OH (Likely D)

[Zaybay]

My list without tilts:

1. Dean Heller (Lean D)

2. Heidi Heitkamp (Tossup)
3. Bill Nelson (Tossup)
4. Claire McCaskill (Tossup)

5. Ted Cruz (Lean R)
6. Joe Donnelly (Lean D)

7. Jon Tester (Likely D)
8. Joe Manchin (Likely D)
9. Sherrod Brown (Likely D)

10. Tammy Baldwin (Safe D)

same as mine, though I have Nelson as Lean D

[wesmoorenerd]

1. Dean Heller (Lean D)

2. Heidi Heitkamp (Tossup)
3. Claire McCaskill (Tossup)

4. Joe Donnelly (Lean D)
5. Ted Cruz (Lean R)
6. Bill Nelson (Lean D)

7. Jon Tester (Likely D)
8. Joe Manchin (Likely D)

9. Sherrod Brown (Safe D)
10. Tammy Baldwin (Safe D)

[Meatball Ron]

1. Heller (Toss-Up, Tilt D)

2. Heitkamp (Toss-Up, Tilt R)
3. Nelson (Pure Toss-Up)
4. McCaskill (Pure Toss-Up)
5. Donnelly (Pure Toss-Up)


6. Manchin (Lean D)
7. Tester (Lean D)
8. Cruz (Lean R)





9. Baldwin (Likely D)


10. Brown (Likely D)

If we do this as likelihood to flip and include open seat races, I'd put Arizona right at the top and Tennessee right behind Cruz, knocking Brown and Baldwin off the list.

[Xing]

This would be my list:

1. Heller (Likely D)







2. Heitkamp (Toss-Up)
3. McCaskill (Toss-Up)

4. Nelson (Toss-Up)
5. Donnelly (Toss-Up)



6. Tester (Lean D)
7. Cruz (Lean R)
8. Manchin (Lean D)





9. Brown (Likely D)



10. Baldwin (Likely D)

[IceSpear]

Okay, time to commit some apostasies, mainly with numbers 1, 3, and 7...

1) Heller (Likely D)
2) Heitkamp (Toss up/Tilt R)
3) Manchin (Toss up/Tilt R)
4) McCaskill (Toss up/Tilt D)
5) Donnelly (Toss up/Tilt D)
6) Nelson (Toss up/Tilt D)
7) Tester (Toss up/Tilt D)
Cruz (Lean R)
9) Brown (Lean D)
10) Baldwin (Likely D)

[Doimper]

Why is everyone sh**tting on the Unbeatable Titan?

[MT Treasurer]

My rankings:

1) Heller (Likely D) (clearly 32 when you take candidate quality/incumbency/rockstar appeal/haircuts into account, tho)

2) Heitkamp (Toss-up/Tilt R)

3) McCaskill (Toss-up)
4) Donnelly (Toss-up)
5) Nelson (Toss-up)

6) Manchin (Tilt/Lean D)
7) Tester (Tilt/Lean D) (yeah, I know, anything other than 33 is way too generous to Rs. Did you know that Rosendale is from Maryland and Montana is much more competitive in statewide/Senate races than at the presidential level, btw?)

Brown (Lean D)
9) Cruz (Lean R)

10) Baldwin or Stabenow (Likely D)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

As always, I don’t use a “pure toss-up” category.  Just to be clear, I’m ranking these by likelyhood of flipping.

1. NV (Lean D, but right on the border between Lean D and Likely D)
2. AZ (Lean D)

3. FL (Tilt R)
4. TN (Tilt D)
5. IN (Tilt D)
6. MO (Tilt D, but right on the border between Tilt D and Lean D)

7. ND (Lean D, but right on the border between Tilt D and Lean D)
8. MT (Lean D, but right on the border between Tilt D and Lean D)

9. TX (Lean R)
10. WV (Lean D)