MA-07: Boston City Councillor to Challenge Capuano

[Jeppe]

I suspect Capuano wins by mid single digits in the end

On the other hand, he’s in a much weaker position in polling compared to Crowley and Lipinski. They were both leading by 30-40 points in polling at this point, a month and a half before the primary.

While Pressley has significant name recognition in Boston, she’s still pretty unknown in the rest of the district, and that’s where she has the most room to grow. I think at the end, she’ll edge out Capuano by low single digits by winning Boston handily and keeping the rest of the district close enough.

It’ll be a low turnout affair, as the primary happens after Labour Day, so predicting it may be difficult, just like NY-14.

[Jeppe]

A lot of undecideds, but those will likely default to the incumbent.

Also:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/07/22/capuano-pressley-grapple-with-same-question-what-makes-you-different/64Uffu4cVVpWZVMYwH4jwL/story.html

Boston Globe article that sums up my problems with this race. There are no real differences between the two candidates.

Undecideds have actually swarmed to the challengers in recent primaries. Crowley lead in the low 50’s to AOC’s low double digit support, in his internal poll taken several weeks before the primary, and as we all know, he got swamped at the end.

Dan Lipinski lead Marie Newman easily by 40 points 2 months before the primary, according to an internal poll released by Newman’s campaign, but in the end, she got 49% of the vote.

In primary polls especially, challengers are likely to get the lion’s share of undecided voters. If voters of the same party are undecided about their incumbent, especially one that’s been around as long as Capuano has, it’s probably not a good sign.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The difference though being ACO and Newman actually had compelling reasons to get voters to support them and that differentiated them from the incumbent, not just "I'm tired of waiting for this guy to retire so I can run." What can she even attack Capuano on?

[Jeppe]

Seth Moulton was behind John Tierney by 40-50 points (including in 2 Emerson polls) 3 months before the primary. He didn’t have a great reason for primarying Tierney, but he still ended up winning by 10 points. Primaries advocating for generational change can be successful, just ask Moulton and Eric Swalwell.

[Zaybay]

A lot of undecideds, but those will likely default to the incumbent.

Also:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/07/22/capuano-pressley-grapple-with-same-question-what-makes-you-different/64Uffu4cVVpWZVMYwH4jwL/story.html

Boston Globe article that sums up my problems with this race. There are no real differences between the two candidates.

Undecideds have actually swarmed to the challengers in recent primaries. Crowley lead in the low 50’s to AOC’s low double digit support, in his internal poll taken several weeks before the primary, and as we all know, he got swamped at the end.

Dan Lipinski lead Marie Newman easily by 40 points 2 months before the primary, according to an internal poll released by Newman’s campaign, but in the end, she got 49% of the vote.

In primary polls especially, challengers are likely to get the lion’s share of undecided voters. If voters of the same party are undecided about their incumbent, especially one that’s been around as long as Capuano has, it’s probably not a good sign.

But those were much different races. IL was in the headlines for weeks, and many outside groups and powerful politicians backed both candidates. NY had low turnout, which allowed AOC's more energetic base to come out.

And it should also be noted that these races had defined lines. IL was a Blue Dog vs Progressive in a Safe seat. NY was a DS vs an old Dem who was seldom there. MA will be a race between a White Liberal and an AA Liberal.

Ayanna Presley has done no favors for herself, and has failed to differentiate herself from Capunao. She has failed to attract attention, and many progressives favor Capuano(such as myself). She just does not have momentum, while Newman and AOC did.

The reason for the so many undecideds might be less of momentum for Pressley, and more "These two are the same". In that case, undecideds would go to Capuano.

Either that or its just Emerson being Emerson.

[Gass3268]

Seth Moulton was behind John Tierney by 40-50 points (including in 2 Emerson polls) 3 months before the primary. He didn’t have a great reason for primarying Tierney, but he still ended up winning by 10 points. Primaries advocating for generational change can be successful, just ask Moulton and Eric Swalwell.

I think Tierney had some ethics issues.

[Jeppe]

A lot of undecideds, but those will likely default to the incumbent.

Also:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/07/22/capuano-pressley-grapple-with-same-question-what-makes-you-different/64Uffu4cVVpWZVMYwH4jwL/story.html

Boston Globe article that sums up my problems with this race. There are no real differences between the two candidates.

Undecideds have actually swarmed to the challengers in recent primaries. Crowley lead in the low 50’s to AOC’s low double digit support, in his internal poll taken several weeks before the primary, and as we all know, he got swamped at the end.

Dan Lipinski lead Marie Newman easily by 40 points 2 months before the primary, according to an internal poll released by Newman’s campaign, but in the end, she got 49% of the vote.

In primary polls especially, challengers are likely to get the lion’s share of undecided voters. If voters of the same party are undecided about their incumbent, especially one that’s been around as long as Capuano has, it’s probably not a good sign.

But those were much different races. IL was in the headlines for weeks, and many outside groups and powerful politicians backed both candidates. NY had low turnout, which allowed AOC's more energetic base to come out.

And it should also be noted that these races had defined lines. IL was a Blue Dog vs Progressive in a Safe seat. NY was a DS vs an old Dem who was seldom there. MA will be a race between a White Liberal and an AA Liberal.

Ayanna Presley has done no favors for herself, and has failed to differentiate herself from Capunao. She has failed to attract attention, and many progressives favor Capuano(such as myself). She just does not have momentum, while Newman and AOC did.

The reason for the so many undecideds might be less of momentum for Pressley, and more "These two are the same". In that case, undecideds would go to Capuano.

Either that or its just Emerson being Emerson.

They’ve differentiated themselves on ICE. Pressley has endorsed abolishing ICE, Capuano has not. In a race with few differences in policy between the two candidates, it made headlines. As ICE becomes less and less popular with Democrats, it’s become a pretty contentious issue.

AOC is also pulling hard for Pressley, given that she was one of the very few Democratic politicians to support her campaign before she won the primary.

Capuano is an underwhelming candidate, he may be a progressive legislator, but that doesn’t mean he’s a great candidate or a campaigner. After all, he lost to Martha Coakley of all people, who is famous for being a terrible candidate.

[Brittain33]

Capuano is an underwhelming candidate, he may be a progressive legislator, but that doesn’t mean he’s a great candidate or a campaigner. After all, he lost to Martha Coakley of all people, who is famous for being a terrible candidate.

He has a pretty successful record aside from that primary and has a big following from his past as mayor of Somerville.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Seth Moulton was behind John Tierney by 40-50 points (including in 2 Emerson polls) 3 months before the primary. He didn’t have a great reason for primarying Tierney, but he still ended up winning by 10 points. Primaries advocating for generational change can be successful, just ask Moulton and Eric Swalwell.

I think Tierney had some ethics issues.

Exactly. I think some of his family members were convicted and that's why he almost lost to a Republican in 2012.

[Zaybay]

$

Seth Moulton was behind John Tierney by 40-50 points (including in 2 Emerson polls) 3 months before the primary. He didn’t have a great reason for primarying Tierney, but he still ended up winning by 10 points. Primaries advocating for generational change can be successful, just ask Moulton and Eric Swalwell.

I think Tierney had some ethics issues.

Exactly. I think some of his family members were convicted and that's why he almost lost to a Republican in 2012.

You guys have cracked the code on why Moulton won in 2014. He ran as a squeaky clean newcomer, fresh from the military. Tierney was portrayed as a crocked politician, and thats how he won.

A lot of undecideds, but those will likely default to the incumbent.

Also:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/07/22/capuano-pressley-grapple-with-same-question-what-makes-you-different/64Uffu4cVVpWZVMYwH4jwL/story.html

Boston Globe article that sums up my problems with this race. There are no real differences between the two candidates.

Undecideds have actually swarmed to the challengers in recent primaries. Crowley lead in the low 50’s to AOC’s low double digit support, in his internal poll taken several weeks before the primary, and as we all know, he got swamped at the end.

Dan Lipinski lead Marie Newman easily by 40 points 2 months before the primary, according to an internal poll released by Newman’s campaign, but in the end, she got 49% of the vote.

In primary polls especially, challengers are likely to get the lion’s share of undecided voters. If voters of the same party are undecided about their incumbent, especially one that’s been around as long as Capuano has, it’s probably not a good sign.

But those were much different races. IL was in the headlines for weeks, and many outside groups and powerful politicians backed both candidates. NY had low turnout, which allowed AOC's more energetic base to come out.

And it should also be noted that these races had defined lines. IL was a Blue Dog vs Progressive in a Safe seat. NY was a DS vs an old Dem who was seldom there. MA will be a race between a White Liberal and an AA Liberal.

Ayanna Presley has done no favors for herself, and has failed to differentiate herself from Capunao. She has failed to attract attention, and many progressives favor Capuano(such as myself). She just does not have momentum, while Newman and AOC did.

The reason for the so many undecideds might be less of momentum for Pressley, and more "These two are the same". In that case, undecideds would go to Capuano.

Either that or its just Emerson being Emerson.

They’ve differentiated themselves on ICE. Pressley has endorsed abolishing ICE, Capuano has not. In a race with few differences in policy between the two candidates, it made headlines. As ICE becomes less and less popular with Democrats, it’s become a pretty contentious issue.

AOC is also pulling hard for Pressley, given that she was one of the very few Democratic politicians to support her campaign before she won the primary.

Capuano is an underwhelming candidate, he may be a progressive legislator, but that doesn’t mean he’s a great candidate or a campaigner. After all, he lost to Martha Coakley of all people, who is famous for being a terrible candidate.

Thats not enough. ICE is a rather new issue, and its highly unlikely that having your whole campaign be about the subject will carry her to victory. AOC has pulled for Presley, but shes also pulled for Nixon, Ing, Harris(running for DE senate), and now Davis. Shes supporting a broad amount of people, not focusing on one.

Capuano is also broadly liked and has massive ties with the entire district. He has one of the highest approvals of the entire delegation, and is widely liked by AAs, Whites, and Latinos.

The Coakly comparison is super poor. He lost to her in 2010. Not 2014. Back in 2010, she was the top candidate, an AG with wide name recognition while also being rather centrist. It was the election of 2010 that gave her the title of being a terrible candidate. This is the same as saying "Obama was such a poor candidate. He barely won against Hillary Clinton, and she lost to Donald Trump of all people".

The bottom line is: Capuano and Pressley have virtually no difference. She is running on her background and being a new voice, while Capuano is running on his record. Pressley has attracted little attention and barely any progressive energy. AAs in the district favor Capuano, as do other demographic groups. Pressley has barely campaigned in the district while Capuano has actually started a GOTV effort.
Thats whats going on right now.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This race is heading towards an AOC-esque upset.

[MAINEiac4434]

The fact that it's this close at this point is bad news for Capuano. Pressley should get AOC to Boston ASAP.

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/32bjseiu/status/1021723370835066881?s=21

[136or142]

Any chance for Brianna Wu to defeat Stephen Lynch?

[Brittain33]

Any chance for Brianna Wu to defeat Stephen Lynch?

None.

[BuckeyeNut]

SEIU is somewhat surprising, no?

[136or142]

Any chance for Brianna Wu to defeat Stephen Lynch?

None.

[Jeppe]

Wow, huge.



https://twitter.com/maura_healey/status/1023907648863920130?s=21

[Zaybay]

Wow, huge.



https://twitter.com/maura_healey/status/1023907648863920130?s=21

Whoa, thats a pretty big endorsement. This might actually be a competitive race...

[McGovernForPrez]

C'mon Maura why'd you have to do this. In other news I'm going to a Capuano phonebank tomorrow. I'll try and see how they're feeling about the race.

[KingSweden]

FWIW I believe Healey is one of Presley’s consituents in Boston

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow, huge.



https://twitter.com/maura_healey/status/1023907648863920130?s=21

Whoa, thats a pretty big endorsement. This might actually be a competitive race...

This was always a competitive race.

Anyways, this race is revving up to be another AOC redux.

[Beet]

Wow, huge.



https://twitter.com/maura_healey/status/1023907648863920130?s=21

Whoa, thats a pretty big endorsement. This might actually be a competitive race...

This was always a competitive race.

Anyways, this race is revving up to be another AOC redux.

Pressley is getting more high profile endorsements than AOC. The SEIU endorsed Crowley, as did any statewide officials who managed to give an endorsement. Only Zephyr Teachout endorsed AOC.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow, huge.



https://twitter.com/maura_healey/status/1023907648863920130?s=21

Whoa, thats a pretty big endorsement. This might actually be a competitive race...

This was always a competitive race.

Anyways, this race is revving up to be another AOC redux.

Pressley is getting more high profile endorsements than AOC. The SEIU endorsed Crowley, as did any statewide officials who managed to give an endorsement. Only Zephyr Teachout endorsed AOC.

When I meant "AOC redux" I meant another DINO going down in a primary. Indeed, I would say that Pressley is better positioned to win than AOC was.

[Landslide Lyndon]

When I meant "AOC redux" I meant another DINO going down in a primary. Indeed, I would say that Pressley is better positioned to win than AOC was.

Capuano is a DINO?
Is this the real world?