MA-07: Boston City Councillor to Challenge Capuano

[McGovernForPrez]

Just felt like bumping this thread after the upset victory by Ocasio-Cortez. The victory has me worried about Capuano's chances. Despite being definitively progressive Crowley still lost this race. Capuano is definitely in a better place than Crowley but I don't think I can shake the feeling that this race could be close.

I don’t see how Crowley’s in a better position. He won’t be able to outspent Pressley 10-1 like Crowley did. But I guess his district is whiter than Crowley’s, although AOC won quite a few white areas too. Pressley starts off with more name recognition and establishment support than Ocasio-Cortez could have ever dreamed of when she launched her campaign, but that may actually serve as a detriment because it raises expectations and may motivate Capuano’s supporters.

I think a big part OC's victory was being able to portray Crowley as an absentee in the district. The fact that his kids don't go to school in the district is a pretty damning attack. I don't think Pressley will be able to portray Capuano in the same way. As far as what I'm seeing on the ground here as well, it's clear Capuano isn't sleeping on things. His signs are all over my part of the district including in some more minority heavy areas.

[Jeppe]

Pressley endorsed abolishing ICE & got a ton of local media attention for it. In a race with few policy distinctions between the two candidates, this might be the thing that differentiates the two candidates the most, aside from the generational shift that Pressley offers.

[Brittain33]

I agree, I feel less confident about Capuano's chances this morning. While he has more of a base in this district than Crowley did in his—Somerville is smaller than Queens, but demographically it's not NY-14—we know that Democratic primary voters are inclined to vote for women this year.

[VPH]

Capuano's district is different than Crowley's. Crowley's was more Hispanic and less White than Capuano's, so I think ICE won't be the biggest difference maker. It also looks like Capuano is taking his competitor seriously.

[OneJ]

Capuano's district is different than Crowley's. Crowley's was more Hispanic and less White than Capuano's, so I think ICE won't be the biggest difference maker. It also looks like Capuano is taking his competitor seriously.

Crowley took AOC seriously and it still didn't stop him from getting the boot despite spending over a million dollars, but to be fair Capuano seems to be starting way earlier than Crowley.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Pressley being a more established politician can be a double-edged sword.
Capuano is also an outspoken progressive and Pressley's campaign seems to be based more on a theme of "time for a change" than accusing him of some great apostasy or being out of touch with the district.

[MAINEiac4434]

Ocasio-Cortez tweeted out an endorsement for Pressley last night, so she could get a boon from that. Maybe AOC could drive two hours north and come campaign!

[McGovernForPrez]

Ocasio-Cortez tweeted out an endorsement for Pressley last night, so she could get a boon from that. Maybe AOC could drive two hours north and come campaign!

I doubt she gets a boon from that. It might help out with some of the DSA types living in here, but they mainly exist in our student population who are notorious for not voting.  If Bernie couldn't get our students to turnout there's now way AOC can. Most people besides elections nerds like us, and die-hard activists care about AOC.

The other major thing about this district is that it's a lot more white than Crowley's. Although it is a minority majority district, I found it recently that the majority of voters here are actually white. 55% of registered voters here are white and that number can skew even further white in low turnout contests. http://www.wbur.org/news/2018/02/09/capuano-pressley-demographics

[Jeppe]

Ocasio-Cortez tweeted out an endorsement for Pressley last night, so she could get a boon from that. Maybe AOC could drive two hours north and come campaign!

I doubt she gets a boon from that. It might help out with some of the DSA types living in here, but they mainly exist in our student population who are notorious for not voting.  If Bernie couldn't get our students to turnout there's now way AOC can. Most people besides elections nerds like us, and die-hard activists care about AOC.

The other major thing about this district is that it's a lot more white than Crowley's. Although it is a minority majority district, I found it recently that the majority of voters here are actually white. 55% of registered voters here are white and that number can skew even further white in low turnout contests. http://www.wbur.org/news/2018/02/09/capuano-pressley-demographics

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez performed very strongly with white voters in NY-14. White voters aren’t guaranteed  the white incumbent, especially if they’re upset at the status quo and want a generational shift. Capuano is also far from being an amazing campaigner, seeing as he’s only in this position because he failed to move up to the statewide level, after losing to Martha Coakley of all people by 20+ points.

[McGovernForPrez]

Ocasio-Cortez tweeted out an endorsement for Pressley last night, so she could get a boon from that. Maybe AOC could drive two hours north and come campaign!

I doubt she gets a boon from that. It might help out with some of the DSA types living in here, but they mainly exist in our student population who are notorious for not voting.  If Bernie couldn't get our students to turnout there's now way AOC can. Most people besides elections nerds like us, and die-hard activists care about AOC.

The other major thing about this district is that it's a lot more white than Crowley's. Although it is a minority majority district, I found it recently that the majority of voters here are actually white. 55% of registered voters here are white and that number can skew even further white in low turnout contests. http://www.wbur.org/news/2018/02/09/capuano-pressley-demographics

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez performed very strongly with white voters in NY-14. White voters aren’t guaranteed  the white incumbent, especially if they’re upset at the status quo and want a generational shift. Capuano is also far from being an amazing campaigner, seeing as he’s only in this position because he failed to move up to the statewide level, after losing to Martha Coakley of all people by 20+ points.

Maybe I'm biased but I feel like I know the profile of white voters in this district pretty well. I can see Pressley doing well with whites in places like Jamaica Plain and maybe parts of Roslindale and West Roxbury, but outside of those areas I don't think she'll do too well. A lot of the white people in Boston are still the old Irish/Italian type who are almost certain to be Capuano supporters. When you get to the white voters outside of Boston things become even more difficult as nobody there really knows Pressley. Maybe I'm wrong but given that Pressley has failed to really distinguish herself from Capuano ideologically I think she'll have problems with cross over appeal, unlike AOC.

[Jeppe]

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez performed very strongly with white voters in NY-14.

Do you by any chance have data on this? I’ve been wondering how whites in NY-14 voted last night as well.

AOC won white voters in Queens by a hefty margin, but Crowley won white voters in the Bronx. Her best white neighbourhood has lots of Greek voters (Astoria), and she won the predominantly Irish City Island. AOC won Hispanic voters by a ton, and they made up a hefty share of the electorate, clocking at 40% when they’re 48% of the census, which is pretty incredible because people expected the NY-14 electorate to be majority white.

Crowley won black voters by a comfortable margin, and Asian voters by a slim margin, but given that he lost both the Hispanic & white vote, it didn’t matter much.

Democrats have moved further left on identity, especially white Democrats. Racial & gender based calls for better representation will work better than people think, especially in urban, diverse districts with a younger population.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I don't think Capuano and Crowley's races are very equivalent.

[Badger]

Hmm, Capuano voted yes on this awful bill. I wonder why he voted this way when it could leave him vulnerable on a hot-button issue among minority voters.

https://twitter.com/jonathancohn/status/996890864738807814?s=21

In fairness, that IS a grossly overused charge. In practice, the factual difference between a misdemeanor resisting arrest and a felony cop assault is minor. Adding a mandatory 10 year sentence (which in OH, fwiw, assuming no serious injury, in a non-mandatory 18 months) in crazy balls.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hmm, Capuano voted yes on this awful bill. I wonder why he voted this way when it could leave him vulnerable on a hot-button issue among minority voters.

https://twitter.com/jonathancohn/status/996890864738807814?s=21

In fairness, that IS a grossly overused charge. In practice, the factual difference between a misdemeanor resisting arrest and a felony cop assault is minor. Adding a mandatory 10 year sentence (which in OH, fwiw, assuming no serious injury, in a non-mandatory 18 months) in crazy balls.

Oh you’ll get no argument there, but I don’t think it should be eliminated

[Brittain33]

Whatever happens, Capuano wasn't caught napping before and it won't happen now. The Globe had the Crowley comparison on its front page today.

[Jeppe]

City Councillor Michelle Wu endorsed Pressley today. A bit of a surprising endorsement, as Wu is a rising star, and she’s going against the Massachusetts establishment by supporting Pressley. She’s taking a big risk by sticking her neck out for Pressley.

[Brittain33]

City Councillor Michelle Wu endorsed Pressley today. A bit of a surprising endorsement, as Wu is a rising star, and she’s going against the Massachusetts establishment by supporting Pressley. She’s taking a big risk by sticking her neck out for Pressley.

Perhaps she feels that the dynamic on the City Council is more important than any blowback from the rest of the Democratic party.

[Brittain33]

BTW, the Capuano campaign canvassed my house last week. My partner and I are, no surprise, reliable voters in Democratic primaries. We haven't been contacted by the Pressley campaign. Since we live in the city where Capuano was formerly mayor we probably aren't at the top of their list.

[I’m not Stu]

Is Capuano likely to win?

[Brittain33]

Is Capuano likely to win?

He's favored, but no one really knows.

[MAINEiac4434]

Is Capuano likely to win?

Since AOC, who knows?

[Jeppe]

Is Capuano likely to win?

There was an independent poll conducted a few months ago that had Capuano leading by around 10 points. Who knows where the race stands today.

[Jeppe]

Capuano +9

[KingSweden]

I suspect Capuano wins by mid single digits in the end

[Zaybay]

A lot of undecideds, but those will likely default to the incumbent.

Also:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/07/22/capuano-pressley-grapple-with-same-question-what-makes-you-different/64Uffu4cVVpWZVMYwH4jwL/story.html

Boston Globe article that sums up my problems with this race. There are no real differences between the two candidates.