MA-07: Boston City Councillor to Challenge Capuano

[Jeppe]

Endorsed. Capuano has been a political joke ever since he lost to Martha Coakley, Pressley is just doing the humane thing by primarying him. Boston deserves better.

[Jeppe]

At the very least, I hope this positions her well to become his successor. Boston seems to have a shortage of good politicians like her.

[Jeppe]

Hoping for a Pressley win. If she can get this close with just a month of campaigning, hopefully she can pull out a win.

[Jeppe]

Hoping for a Pressley win. If she can get this close with just a month of campaigning, hopefully she can pull out a win.

Why? 

Because the Massachusetts delegation is all-white and severely lacking in women. It may not be important to you, but having proper representation of women and minorities in Congress is important for some people. Tough luck for Capuano, but times are changing.

[Jeppe]

I live in this district and can't think of any examples of liberals unseating liberals on demographics and half-generational differences (Capuano isn't that old) alone. If Capuano were a conservative who adopted some liberal votes, maybe, but he's fully embraced by progressives here and institutions and there is not discontent with him. The district is diverse but not overly so. Unless Pressley has some incredible off-the-charts organizing prowess I haven't seen, OR Sanders endorses her (which would be the real X factor; a Sanders faction swept Somerville city council last year), I don't see how Capuano doesn't cruise to a win again.

Maybe she's doing this as a dry run for future Boston races.

Mind you that this poll is not a Pressley internal. The numbers look awful for a 20 year incumbent, to be below 50% in their primary, and only running 12 points ahead of a challenger who declared 2 weeks ago. If Capuano tried to sleepwalk through the primary, he could easily lose. I get that you like Capuano, but you’d have to be pretty delusional to not think that Pressley will give Capuano a run for his money. I acknowledge that it’ll be an uphill battle for Pressley, but that doesn’t mean Capuano can just hit the snooze button.

[Jeppe]

I read in the Globe this morning that Capuano's approval rating among Dems in this poll is 63%-8%. Joe Lieberman, he isn't.

And Pressley has a 65% - 5% approval rating within Boston, so they’re both well-liked, it’s just a matter of who best represents the interests and priorities of the district today.

[Jeppe]

Capuano raised $500,000 this past quarter, Pressley $364,000.

[Jeppe]

Capuano raised $500,000 this past quarter, Pressley $364,000.

Good numbers for Pressley but if Newman couldn't win I doubt Pressley wins.

Pressley has much more time than Newman though. The MA primary is all the way in September and Newman was polling in the low double digits against Lipinski 2 months before the primary, meanwhile Pressley was only behind by 8 points in February.

[Jeppe]

Why should this person be primaried? Primarying good incumbent dems makes no sense.

On the other hand, why should candidates have to wait for their turn to run for office? Ayanna Pressley has been trotted out to campaign for Democrats in black communities in Boston and across the country, and she’s been told to wait for her turn for many years now.

If she wants to run for office and make her case to voters that she would be a better representative than Capuano, trying to stop her is undemocratic and reductive. It’s one thing if she were challenging an endangered incumbent in a swing sweat, but she’s not, so what difference does it make.

That’s the problem with the Democratic Party, it marginalizes the voices of women and minorities, and tells them to “wait for their turn”, denying them the opportunity to be more actively involved in important discussions that affect their day-to-day lives.

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/ayannapressley/status/983370699237666816?s=21

Looks like Capuano won’t be able to maintain a monopoly over union support. The Chelsea Council President, Damali Vidot, also endorsed Pressley.

Electricians and technicians weren’t a group I expected Pressley to win over.

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/alexjgoldstein/status/984431768316121088?s=21

[Jeppe]

Hmm, Capuano voted yes on this awful bill. I wonder why he voted this way when it could leave him vulnerable on a hot-button issue among minority voters.

https://twitter.com/jonathancohn/status/996890864738807814?s=21

[Jeppe]

Just felt like bumping this thread after the upset victory by Ocasio-Cortez. The victory has me worried about Capuano's chances. Despite being definitively progressive Crowley still lost this race. Capuano is definitely in a better place than Crowley but I don't think I can shake the feeling that this race could be close.

I don’t see how Crowley’s in a better position. He won’t be able to outspent Pressley 10-1 like Crowley did. But I guess his district is whiter than Crowley’s, although AOC won quite a few white areas too. Pressley starts off with more name recognition and establishment support than Ocasio-Cortez could have ever dreamed of when she launched her campaign, but that may actually serve as a detriment because it raises expectations and may motivate Capuano’s supporters.

[Jeppe]

Pressley endorsed abolishing ICE & got a ton of local media attention for it. In a race with few policy distinctions between the two candidates, this might be the thing that differentiates the two candidates the most, aside from the generational shift that Pressley offers.

[Jeppe]

Ocasio-Cortez tweeted out an endorsement for Pressley last night, so she could get a boon from that. Maybe AOC could drive two hours north and come campaign!

I doubt she gets a boon from that. It might help out with some of the DSA types living in here, but they mainly exist in our student population who are notorious for not voting.  If Bernie couldn't get our students to turnout there's now way AOC can. Most people besides elections nerds like us, and die-hard activists care about AOC.

The other major thing about this district is that it's a lot more white than Crowley's. Although it is a minority majority district, I found it recently that the majority of voters here are actually white. 55% of registered voters here are white and that number can skew even further white in low turnout contests. http://www.wbur.org/news/2018/02/09/capuano-pressley-demographics

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez performed very strongly with white voters in NY-14. White voters aren’t guaranteed  the white incumbent, especially if they’re upset at the status quo and want a generational shift. Capuano is also far from being an amazing campaigner, seeing as he’s only in this position because he failed to move up to the statewide level, after losing to Martha Coakley of all people by 20+ points.

[Jeppe]

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez performed very strongly with white voters in NY-14.

Do you by any chance have data on this? I’ve been wondering how whites in NY-14 voted last night as well.

AOC won white voters in Queens by a hefty margin, but Crowley won white voters in the Bronx. Her best white neighbourhood has lots of Greek voters (Astoria), and she won the predominantly Irish City Island. AOC won Hispanic voters by a ton, and they made up a hefty share of the electorate, clocking at 40% when they’re 48% of the census, which is pretty incredible because people expected the NY-14 electorate to be majority white.

Crowley won black voters by a comfortable margin, and Asian voters by a slim margin, but given that he lost both the Hispanic & white vote, it didn’t matter much.

Democrats have moved further left on identity, especially white Democrats. Racial & gender based calls for better representation will work better than people think, especially in urban, diverse districts with a younger population.

[Jeppe]

City Councillor Michelle Wu endorsed Pressley today. A bit of a surprising endorsement, as Wu is a rising star, and she’s going against the Massachusetts establishment by supporting Pressley. She’s taking a big risk by sticking her neck out for Pressley.

[Jeppe]

Is Capuano likely to win?

There was an independent poll conducted a few months ago that had Capuano leading by around 10 points. Who knows where the race stands today.

[Jeppe]

Capuano +9

[Jeppe]

I suspect Capuano wins by mid single digits in the end

On the other hand, he’s in a much weaker position in polling compared to Crowley and Lipinski. They were both leading by 30-40 points in polling at this point, a month and a half before the primary.

While Pressley has significant name recognition in Boston, she’s still pretty unknown in the rest of the district, and that’s where she has the most room to grow. I think at the end, she’ll edge out Capuano by low single digits by winning Boston handily and keeping the rest of the district close enough.

It’ll be a low turnout affair, as the primary happens after Labour Day, so predicting it may be difficult, just like NY-14.

[Jeppe]

A lot of undecideds, but those will likely default to the incumbent.

Also:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/07/22/capuano-pressley-grapple-with-same-question-what-makes-you-different/64Uffu4cVVpWZVMYwH4jwL/story.html

Boston Globe article that sums up my problems with this race. There are no real differences between the two candidates.

Undecideds have actually swarmed to the challengers in recent primaries. Crowley lead in the low 50’s to AOC’s low double digit support, in his internal poll taken several weeks before the primary, and as we all know, he got swamped at the end.

Dan Lipinski lead Marie Newman easily by 40 points 2 months before the primary, according to an internal poll released by Newman’s campaign, but in the end, she got 49% of the vote.

In primary polls especially, challengers are likely to get the lion’s share of undecided voters. If voters of the same party are undecided about their incumbent, especially one that’s been around as long as Capuano has, it’s probably not a good sign.

[Jeppe]

Seth Moulton was behind John Tierney by 40-50 points (including in 2 Emerson polls) 3 months before the primary. He didn’t have a great reason for primarying Tierney, but he still ended up winning by 10 points. Primaries advocating for generational change can be successful, just ask Moulton and Eric Swalwell.

[Jeppe]

A lot of undecideds, but those will likely default to the incumbent.

Also:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/07/22/capuano-pressley-grapple-with-same-question-what-makes-you-different/64Uffu4cVVpWZVMYwH4jwL/story.html

Boston Globe article that sums up my problems with this race. There are no real differences between the two candidates.

Undecideds have actually swarmed to the challengers in recent primaries. Crowley lead in the low 50’s to AOC’s low double digit support, in his internal poll taken several weeks before the primary, and as we all know, he got swamped at the end.

Dan Lipinski lead Marie Newman easily by 40 points 2 months before the primary, according to an internal poll released by Newman’s campaign, but in the end, she got 49% of the vote.

In primary polls especially, challengers are likely to get the lion’s share of undecided voters. If voters of the same party are undecided about their incumbent, especially one that’s been around as long as Capuano has, it’s probably not a good sign.

But those were much different races. IL was in the headlines for weeks, and many outside groups and powerful politicians backed both candidates. NY had low turnout, which allowed AOC's more energetic base to come out.

And it should also be noted that these races had defined lines. IL was a Blue Dog vs Progressive in a Safe seat. NY was a DS vs an old Dem who was seldom there. MA will be a race between a White Liberal and an AA Liberal.

Ayanna Presley has done no favors for herself, and has failed to differentiate herself from Capunao. She has failed to attract attention, and many progressives favor Capuano(such as myself). She just does not have momentum, while Newman and AOC did.

The reason for the so many undecideds might be less of momentum for Pressley, and more "These two are the same". In that case, undecideds would go to Capuano.

Either that or its just Emerson being Emerson.

They’ve differentiated themselves on ICE. Pressley has endorsed abolishing ICE, Capuano has not. In a race with few differences in policy between the two candidates, it made headlines. As ICE becomes less and less popular with Democrats, it’s become a pretty contentious issue.

AOC is also pulling hard for Pressley, given that she was one of the very few Democratic politicians to support her campaign before she won the primary.

Capuano is an underwhelming candidate, he may be a progressive legislator, but that doesn’t mean he’s a great candidate or a campaigner. After all, he lost to Martha Coakley of all people, who is famous for being a terrible candidate.

[Jeppe]

https://twitter.com/32bjseiu/status/1021723370835066881?s=21

[Jeppe]

Wow, huge.



https://twitter.com/maura_healey/status/1023907648863920130?s=21