MA-07: Boston City Councillor to Challenge Capuano

[Strudelcutie4427]

I used to live close to this district basically I would say it breaks down as follows:
Cambridge: Capuano probably wins by 15
Somerville: Capuano wins big. (He used to be the mayor there)
Everett: Safe Capuano. Its next to Somerville
Chelsea: Very hispanic, but probably not going for a black candidate from boston. Likely Cap
East Boston: Safe Capuano
Allston-Brighton: Likely Capuano. Mostly white and home to BU and BC. Mix of students, yuppies, and hipsters. Most immigrants are Russians
Back Bay: Toss up. Its in Boston but its full of white liberals who always vote Capuano
Mission Hill: Probably Pressley. Very student heavy, but moonbat crazy students
Roxbury: Black inner city neighborhood Safe Pressley
Jamaica Plain/Hyde Park: Lean Pressley. Ethnically diverse, lot of students and hipsters
Mattapan: See Roxbury
Dorchester: Toss up. Many ethnic groups and evenly balanced. Not so crazy liberal as say Cambridge
West Milton: Toss up. Combination of black precincts next to Mattapan and rich white liberals
Randolph: Toss up. Black town but well rwmoved from Boston and sandwiched between purple towns Braintree, Holbrook, Avon and Canton

Overall Rating: Lean Capuano

[Strudelcutie4427]

I live in this district and can't think of any examples of liberals unseating liberals on demographics and half-generational differences (Capuano isn't that old) alone. If Capuano were a conservative who adopted some liberal votes, maybe, but he's fully embraced by progressives here and institutions and there is not discontent with him. The district is diverse but not overly so. Unless Pressley has some incredible off-the-charts organizing prowess I haven't seen, OR Sanders endorses her (which would be the real X factor; a Sanders faction swept Somerville city council last year), I don't see how Capuano doesn't cruise to a win again.

Maybe she's doing this as a dry run for future Boston races.

I doubt that about the mayor. Marty’s there as long as he wants, Boston usually has mayor-for-life

[Strudelcutie4427]

Hoping for a Pressley win. If she can get this close with just a month of campaigning, hopefully she can pull out a win.

Why? 

Because the Massachusetts delegation is all-white and severely lacking in women. It may not be important to you, but having proper representation of women and minorities in Congress is important for some people. Tough luck for Capuano, but times are changing.

What are you talking about? They have a “Native American” woman senator 😂

[Strudelcutie4427]

This is all happening because Seth Moulton made it hip and cool to primary incumbent Democrats here. The problem is all of our Democrats are a great fit for their district.

I don't think Lynch is a good fit for his district. McGovern appears not to be on the surface, but he's apparently popular.

Lynch is a great fit for his district. He’s moderate, working class back ground, and he’s from southie representing much of the south shore. Almost everyone there used to be from southie or Dorchester do he probsbly knows a huge amount of people in the district personally

[Strudelcutie4427]

For anyone interested, there is a debate at Umass Boston on Tuesday 8/7 at 3pm. Free to attend but you need to rsvp

[Strudelcutie4427]

There is a debate (Capuano vs. Pressley) at 3pm today at UMass Boston. I would have gone if I didn’t have work but if anyone else lives close and isn’t busy you should check it out

[Strudelcutie4427]

I’m onboard for Capuano now