MA-07: Boston City Councillor to Challenge Capuano

[McGovernForPrez]

I like Ayanna Pressley and voted for her for city council at large but I don't think she has a real chance at winning this race. She really has no way of distinguishing herself from Capuano who is a staunch progressive hailing from the most liberal part of the district, Somerville.

I worked on the campaign of Tito Jackson who challenged Mayor Marty Walsh and if Tito couldn't mobilize enough black voters against Walsh I doubt Pressley will be able to do the same against Capuano. The other important thing I learned from that campaign is that non-black minorities aren't as likely to fall behind a candidate just because they are also a minority. While the district is minority majority it is still plurality white and only 26% black.

I can't see Capuano losing this race. He's a strong fit for the district ideologically and he has a ton of cash on hand. I certainly plan on voting for him in the primary.

[McGovernForPrez]

Endorsed. Capuano has been a political joke ever since he lost to Martha Coakley, Pressley is just doing the humane thing by primarying him. Boston deserves better.

Capuano has been great for this district. He's a great ideological fit and he's always fought to bring home bacon in the form of federal funding for the MBTA. By electing Pressley we end up throwing away all the seniority Capuano had for someone who isn't substantially different from Capuano on policy. Instead of running a pointless race for congress I'd rather Pressley focus on actually doing something in city council, such as fighting Walsh's cuts to public education.

[McGovernForPrez]

Just an important thing to note about Ayanna Pressley as a candidate. While she is a city councilor who has ran for city wide office, she has never garnered more than 25% of the vote here due to the way our councilor at-large elections operate here. She's never ran a head to head race before and that severely hinders her strength as a candidate.

I'd probably rate this race as safe Capuano.

[McGovernForPrez]

Just an important thing to note about Ayanna Pressley as a candidate. While she is a city councilor who has ran for city wide office, she has never garnered more than 25% of the vote here due to the way our councilor at-large elections operate here. She's never ran a head to head race before and that severely hinders her strength as a candidate.

I'd probably rate this race as safe Capuano.

25% of the total vote is huge in a race where voters can select four candidates. That means she was selected on the vast majority of those voting for city council.

Races for multi-member districts shouldn't be analyzed as a percentage of the total vote, but a percentage of the number of ballots cast. I have the same issue with analysis of NJ Assembly races.

For example, in 2017 Pressley only received 21.64% of the total vote, but she was selected on 59.66% of all ballots cast in the city (including those who don't vote for City Council at all). That's significant, and I'm sure Capuano is taking her as seriously as he has taken any opponent.

The point is she has no experience running a head to head race which hurts her chances significantly. Also, while she garnered votes on 58% of all ballots, it's a lot easier to get 58% of the vote when voters have to pick 4 of the candidates. Once you're an incumbent it's really really easy to get re-elected as an at large candidate.

[McGovernForPrez]

Wow, everyone's trying to primary incumbents in MA.

Unlike Brianna Wu and Tahirah Amatul-Wadud (the person running against Neal) this person is an actual elected official so should probably be taken more seriously as a potential winner. But Capuano seems fairly uncontroversial so unless that changes he will almost certainly win.

I blame Seth Moulton for it. Ever since he won everybody and their mother thinks they can be an MA congressman.

[McGovernForPrez]

This is as quixotic as Brianna Wu’s run

See Figueira's comment above -- Pressley is much more serious than Wu. I don't think she'll win though.

Well I suppose it's possible that Wu will do better, but it just seems like a city councillor from a city that overlaps heavily with the district would be a better candidate than a random video game developer/minor Internet celebrity with no ties to the district.

I also haven't really seen her campaign's presence at all around here. Wu's had plenty of time to pull one together by now.

[McGovernForPrez]

My state senator was collecting ballot signatures the other day and he was wearing a Capuano button. Looks like Capuano is gonna have a lot of the local political backing on his side as well. An endorsement from Setti Warren doesn't mean anything when nobody knows who he is. I just don't see how Pressley wins. I have experience working on the campaign of insurgent minority candidates here and I can say with full certainty that Pressley is gonna have a difficult time. If you wanna see how this race will likely go down look at Tito Jackson's 2017 mayoral campaign. Marty Walsh spurned progressives and still won pretty damn easily.

[McGovernForPrez]

I'm already seeing signs up around my town for Capuano. Local Teamsters are coming out strong in his favor.

[McGovernForPrez]

I'm already seeing signs up around my town for Capuano. Local Teamsters are coming out strong in his favor.

Blech. Hopefully they treat Pressley volunteers better than the cast of Top Chef.

All of his signs just say "Mike Capuano Democrat for congress". Those are the exact type of signs that'll help him win over low info voters.

[McGovernForPrez]

Capuano raised $500,000 this past quarter, Pressley $364,000.

Good numbers for Pressley but if Newman couldn't win I doubt Pressley wins.

[McGovernForPrez]

This is all happening because Seth Moulton made it hip and cool to primary incumbent Democrats here. The problem is all of our Democrats are a great fit for their district.

[McGovernForPrez]

Just felt like bumping this thread after the upset victory by Ocasio-Cortez. The victory has me worried about Capuano's chances. Despite being definitively progressive Crowley still lost this race. Capuano is definitely in a better place than Crowley but I don't think I can shake the feeling that this race could be close.

[McGovernForPrez]

Just felt like bumping this thread after the upset victory by Ocasio-Cortez. The victory has me worried about Capuano's chances. Despite being definitively progressive Crowley still lost this race. Capuano is definitely in a better place than Crowley but I don't think I can shake the feeling that this race could be close.

I don’t see how Crowley’s in a better position. He won’t be able to outspent Pressley 10-1 like Crowley did. But I guess his district is whiter than Crowley’s, although AOC won quite a few white areas too. Pressley starts off with more name recognition and establishment support than Ocasio-Cortez could have ever dreamed of when she launched her campaign, but that may actually serve as a detriment because it raises expectations and may motivate Capuano’s supporters.

I think a big part OC's victory was being able to portray Crowley as an absentee in the district. The fact that his kids don't go to school in the district is a pretty damning attack. I don't think Pressley will be able to portray Capuano in the same way. As far as what I'm seeing on the ground here as well, it's clear Capuano isn't sleeping on things. His signs are all over my part of the district including in some more minority heavy areas.

[McGovernForPrez]

Ocasio-Cortez tweeted out an endorsement for Pressley last night, so she could get a boon from that. Maybe AOC could drive two hours north and come campaign!

I doubt she gets a boon from that. It might help out with some of the DSA types living in here, but they mainly exist in our student population who are notorious for not voting.  If Bernie couldn't get our students to turnout there's now way AOC can. Most people besides elections nerds like us, and die-hard activists care about AOC.

The other major thing about this district is that it's a lot more white than Crowley's. Although it is a minority majority district, I found it recently that the majority of voters here are actually white. 55% of registered voters here are white and that number can skew even further white in low turnout contests. http://www.wbur.org/news/2018/02/09/capuano-pressley-demographics

[McGovernForPrez]

Ocasio-Cortez tweeted out an endorsement for Pressley last night, so she could get a boon from that. Maybe AOC could drive two hours north and come campaign!

I doubt she gets a boon from that. It might help out with some of the DSA types living in here, but they mainly exist in our student population who are notorious for not voting.  If Bernie couldn't get our students to turnout there's now way AOC can. Most people besides elections nerds like us, and die-hard activists care about AOC.

The other major thing about this district is that it's a lot more white than Crowley's. Although it is a minority majority district, I found it recently that the majority of voters here are actually white. 55% of registered voters here are white and that number can skew even further white in low turnout contests. http://www.wbur.org/news/2018/02/09/capuano-pressley-demographics

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez performed very strongly with white voters in NY-14. White voters aren’t guaranteed  the white incumbent, especially if they’re upset at the status quo and want a generational shift. Capuano is also far from being an amazing campaigner, seeing as he’s only in this position because he failed to move up to the statewide level, after losing to Martha Coakley of all people by 20+ points.

Maybe I'm biased but I feel like I know the profile of white voters in this district pretty well. I can see Pressley doing well with whites in places like Jamaica Plain and maybe parts of Roslindale and West Roxbury, but outside of those areas I don't think she'll do too well. A lot of the white people in Boston are still the old Irish/Italian type who are almost certain to be Capuano supporters. When you get to the white voters outside of Boston things become even more difficult as nobody there really knows Pressley. Maybe I'm wrong but given that Pressley has failed to really distinguish herself from Capuano ideologically I think she'll have problems with cross over appeal, unlike AOC.

[McGovernForPrez]

C'mon Maura why'd you have to do this. In other news I'm going to a Capuano phonebank tomorrow. I'll try and see how they're feeling about the race.

[McGovernForPrez]

If you're calling Capuano a DINOS, you really don't know much about him. He's far more liberal than Lipinski and Crowley. I'm supporting him because he has seniority in the house transportation committee and has been key in providing federal funding for the MBTA.

As for the race itself, I think the Healey endorsement is big and definitely points to a competitive election. One thing to keep in mind though is Capuano has Marty Walsh's endorsement and the Boston machine is nothing to scoff at. I'm moving this race to Lean Capuano.

[McGovernForPrez]

I wish more people like Cooper or Lipinski were losing rather than people like Crowley and Capuano.

Progressives are going to come full force at Lipinski in 2020. Newman only lost by 2 points after all. Donna Edwards did the same thing in 2006, came very close to beating an incumbent in 2006, then won by a landslide in 2008.

Hopefully. Speaking of that, is Lynch getting a serious challenge? He's way to the right of Capuano.

Semi-Serious. Brianna Wu is campaigning hard and doing well, but she doesnt have the money, and the D field has a third challenger as well, which will split the vote. He could be unseated OC style, with little fanfare until its too late, but it seems like Lynch will go on to serve another 2 years.

It's worth noting that Lynch's district is decent bit more conservative than Capuano's. I don't love Lynch but he fits his district like a glove

[McGovernForPrez]

In other news I canvassed for this campaign yesterday and got to meet the Congressman. I live in an area which I expected to be pro-Capuano but I was blown back by the positive responses I got. I only met one Pressley supporter and that was because they were personal friends with her.

[McGovernForPrez]

I still support Capuano since he will be the ranking member of the house transportation committee when we take back the house, and he has always helped us in MA out, but hes clearly getting too old for the job.

Respectfully, that is not a great reason to vote for a politician, especially one that's as out-of-touch as Capuano.

I mean that's easy to say for someone who doesn't rely on the MBTA to commute. The amount of money he's secured for our district can't be understated. I don't agree with Capuano on the whole Kapernick thing, but he still has an outstanding progressive record anyways. He also is certainly not out-of-touch. During my time canvassing for him I met a bunch of people who had met him and were felt like was very much in touch.

[McGovernForPrez]

Lol @ the Intercept attacking Pressley for being too friendly with the establishment, over the 20 year incumbent congressman.

I think the point they're making is that she's hardly some anti-establishment hero. She didn't have the gall to stand up to Marty Walsh when she was in city council. Her whole campaign comes across as opportunistic, which in fairness isn't always a bad thing.

[McGovernForPrez]

So apparently I should vote for Pressley because liquor licences? Seems like some pretty weak reasoning compared to all of the tangible benefits Capuano has brought to the district. Anyways this changes nothing. Newspaper endorsements don't matter.

[McGovernForPrez]

It's pretty telling that our Massachusets posters are supporting Capuano while the out-of-staters are rabid Pressley fans.

Tbh, most of the forum supports Capuano, regardless of residency (as shown by a poll on the forum recently). It's probably more that most Pressley supporters/voters are either POC or women, as Twitter indicates, and those demographic groups aren't Atlas posters.

There are plenty of POC and women who support Capuano. I've encountered a good number of them while campaigning. I think Capuano will get at least 35% of POC and probably more than 50% of women.

[McGovernForPrez]

So either Capuano has decided to concede with him narrowly ahead and 8% reporting or someone is clickbaiting.

Problem is most of what's reported is his base.....

Is there any evidence for that?

[McGovernForPrez]

I don't even see anything reported

It's reported on Vox.