MA-07: Boston City Councillor to Challenge Capuano

[Zaybay]

A lot of undecideds, but those will likely default to the incumbent.

Also:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/07/22/capuano-pressley-grapple-with-same-question-what-makes-you-different/64Uffu4cVVpWZVMYwH4jwL/story.html

Boston Globe article that sums up my problems with this race. There are no real differences between the two candidates.

[Zaybay]

A lot of undecideds, but those will likely default to the incumbent.

Also:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/07/22/capuano-pressley-grapple-with-same-question-what-makes-you-different/64Uffu4cVVpWZVMYwH4jwL/story.html

Boston Globe article that sums up my problems with this race. There are no real differences between the two candidates.

Undecideds have actually swarmed to the challengers in recent primaries. Crowley lead in the low 50’s to AOC’s low double digit support, in his internal poll taken several weeks before the primary, and as we all know, he got swamped at the end.

Dan Lipinski lead Marie Newman easily by 40 points 2 months before the primary, according to an internal poll released by Newman’s campaign, but in the end, she got 49% of the vote.

In primary polls especially, challengers are likely to get the lion’s share of undecided voters. If voters of the same party are undecided about their incumbent, especially one that’s been around as long as Capuano has, it’s probably not a good sign.

But those were much different races. IL was in the headlines for weeks, and many outside groups and powerful politicians backed both candidates. NY had low turnout, which allowed AOC's more energetic base to come out.

And it should also be noted that these races had defined lines. IL was a Blue Dog vs Progressive in a Safe seat. NY was a DS vs an old Dem who was seldom there. MA will be a race between a White Liberal and an AA Liberal.

Ayanna Presley has done no favors for herself, and has failed to differentiate herself from Capunao. She has failed to attract attention, and many progressives favor Capuano(such as myself). She just does not have momentum, while Newman and AOC did.

The reason for the so many undecideds might be less of momentum for Pressley, and more "These two are the same". In that case, undecideds would go to Capuano.

Either that or its just Emerson being Emerson.

[Zaybay]

$

Seth Moulton was behind John Tierney by 40-50 points (including in 2 Emerson polls) 3 months before the primary. He didn’t have a great reason for primarying Tierney, but he still ended up winning by 10 points. Primaries advocating for generational change can be successful, just ask Moulton and Eric Swalwell.

I think Tierney had some ethics issues.

Exactly. I think some of his family members were convicted and that's why he almost lost to a Republican in 2012.

You guys have cracked the code on why Moulton won in 2014. He ran as a squeaky clean newcomer, fresh from the military. Tierney was portrayed as a crocked politician, and thats how he won.

A lot of undecideds, but those will likely default to the incumbent.

Also:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/07/22/capuano-pressley-grapple-with-same-question-what-makes-you-different/64Uffu4cVVpWZVMYwH4jwL/story.html

Boston Globe article that sums up my problems with this race. There are no real differences between the two candidates.

Undecideds have actually swarmed to the challengers in recent primaries. Crowley lead in the low 50’s to AOC’s low double digit support, in his internal poll taken several weeks before the primary, and as we all know, he got swamped at the end.

Dan Lipinski lead Marie Newman easily by 40 points 2 months before the primary, according to an internal poll released by Newman’s campaign, but in the end, she got 49% of the vote.

In primary polls especially, challengers are likely to get the lion’s share of undecided voters. If voters of the same party are undecided about their incumbent, especially one that’s been around as long as Capuano has, it’s probably not a good sign.

But those were much different races. IL was in the headlines for weeks, and many outside groups and powerful politicians backed both candidates. NY had low turnout, which allowed AOC's more energetic base to come out.

And it should also be noted that these races had defined lines. IL was a Blue Dog vs Progressive in a Safe seat. NY was a DS vs an old Dem who was seldom there. MA will be a race between a White Liberal and an AA Liberal.

Ayanna Presley has done no favors for herself, and has failed to differentiate herself from Capunao. She has failed to attract attention, and many progressives favor Capuano(such as myself). She just does not have momentum, while Newman and AOC did.

The reason for the so many undecideds might be less of momentum for Pressley, and more "These two are the same". In that case, undecideds would go to Capuano.

Either that or its just Emerson being Emerson.

They’ve differentiated themselves on ICE. Pressley has endorsed abolishing ICE, Capuano has not. In a race with few differences in policy between the two candidates, it made headlines. As ICE becomes less and less popular with Democrats, it’s become a pretty contentious issue.

AOC is also pulling hard for Pressley, given that she was one of the very few Democratic politicians to support her campaign before she won the primary.

Capuano is an underwhelming candidate, he may be a progressive legislator, but that doesn’t mean he’s a great candidate or a campaigner. After all, he lost to Martha Coakley of all people, who is famous for being a terrible candidate.

Thats not enough. ICE is a rather new issue, and its highly unlikely that having your whole campaign be about the subject will carry her to victory. AOC has pulled for Presley, but shes also pulled for Nixon, Ing, Harris(running for DE senate), and now Davis. Shes supporting a broad amount of people, not focusing on one.

Capuano is also broadly liked and has massive ties with the entire district. He has one of the highest approvals of the entire delegation, and is widely liked by AAs, Whites, and Latinos.

The Coakly comparison is super poor. He lost to her in 2010. Not 2014. Back in 2010, she was the top candidate, an AG with wide name recognition while also being rather centrist. It was the election of 2010 that gave her the title of being a terrible candidate. This is the same as saying "Obama was such a poor candidate. He barely won against Hillary Clinton, and she lost to Donald Trump of all people".

The bottom line is: Capuano and Pressley have virtually no difference. She is running on her background and being a new voice, while Capuano is running on his record. Pressley has attracted little attention and barely any progressive energy. AAs in the district favor Capuano, as do other demographic groups. Pressley has barely campaigned in the district while Capuano has actually started a GOTV effort.
Thats whats going on right now.

[Zaybay]

Wow, huge.



https://twitter.com/maura_healey/status/1023907648863920130?s=21

Whoa, thats a pretty big endorsement. This might actually be a competitive race...

[Zaybay]

Wow, huge.



https://twitter.com/maura_healey/status/1023907648863920130?s=21

Whoa, thats a pretty big endorsement. This might actually be a competitive race...

This was always a competitive race.

Anyways, this race is revving up to be another AOC redux.

Pressley is getting more high profile endorsements than AOC. The SEIU endorsed Crowley, as did any statewide officials who managed to give an endorsement. Only Zephyr Teachout endorsed AOC.

When I meant "AOC redux" I meant another DINO going down in a primary. Indeed, I would say that Pressley is better positioned to win than AOC was.

Ummm, Capuano and DINO are two words that dont go together. They dont even have any major policy differences. Both are progressive MA Democrats.

Anyway, this will be a close race, but Im still tilting it to Capuano.

[Zaybay]

If you're calling Capuano a DINOS, you really don't know much about him. He's far more liberal than Lipinski and Crowley. I'm supporting him because he has seniority in the house transportation committee and has been key in providing federal funding for the MBTA.

Yeah, thats why Im supporting him to, especially since there is literally no difference between Pressley and Capuano.

And while this endorsement is pretty big, the candidates and dynamics of this race are not in favor of Pressley.

The ideological divide that would get progressive or moderate money and power into the race is not there. Pressley is not as active of a campaigner as AOC. Capuano is a rather strong incumbent. And while, again, the endorsement is large, its still rather small in the grand scheme.

Anyway, I rate this lean Capuano.

[Zaybay]

I’m sorry. I said something that wasn’t true without looking at all the facts. Capuano is not a DINO and I should’ve done more research on him before I said such a thing.

That being said, I still support Pressley in this race.

Its alright, I can see how you could get it mixed up, since most primaries have been moderates or DINOs vs Progressives.

[Zaybay]

I wish more people like Cooper or Lipinski were losing rather than people like Crowley and Capuano.

[Zaybay]

I wish more people like Cooper or Lipinski were losing rather than people like Crowley and Capuano.

Progressives are going to come full force at Lipinski in 2020. Newman only lost by 2 points after all. Donna Edwards did the same thing in 2006, came very close to beating an incumbent in 2006, then won by a landslide in 2008.

Hopefully. Speaking of that, is Lynch getting a serious challenge? He's way to the right of Capuano.

Semi-Serious. Brianna Wu is campaigning hard and doing well, but she doesnt have the money, and the D field has a third challenger as well, which will split the vote. He could be unseated OC style, with little fanfare until its too late, but it seems like Lynch will go on to serve another 2 years.

[Zaybay]

I wish more people like Cooper or Lipinski were losing rather than people like Crowley and Capuano.

Progressives are going to come full force at Lipinski in 2020. Newman only lost by 2 points after all. Donna Edwards did the same thing in 2006, came very close to beating an incumbent in 2006, then won by a landslide in 2008.

Hopefully. Speaking of that, is Lynch getting a serious challenge? He's way to the right of Capuano.

Semi-Serious. Brianna Wu is campaigning hard and doing well, but she doesnt have the money, and the D field has a third challenger as well, which will split the vote. He could be unseated OC style, with little fanfare until its too late, but it seems like Lynch will go on to serve another 2 years.

It's worth noting that Lynch's district is decent bit more conservative than Capuano's. I don't love Lynch but he fits his district like a glove

Eh, the district is D+9, basically untouchable unless it really is a large wave.

[Zaybay]

I wish more people like Cooper or Lipinski were losing rather than people like Crowley and Capuano.

Progressives are going to come full force at Lipinski in 2020. Newman only lost by 2 points after all. Donna Edwards did the same thing in 2006, came very close to beating an incumbent in 2006, then won by a landslide in 2008.

Hopefully. Speaking of that, is Lynch getting a serious challenge? He's way to the right of Capuano.

Semi-Serious. Brianna Wu is campaigning hard and doing well, but she doesnt have the money, and the D field has a third challenger as well, which will split the vote. He could be unseated OC style, with little fanfare until its too late, but it seems like Lynch will go on to serve another 2 years.

It's worth noting that Lynch's district is decent bit more conservative than Capuano's. I don't love Lynch but he fits his district like a glove

Eh, the district is D+9, basically untouchable unless it really is a large wave.

D+9 doesn't necessarily mean that's it's liberal enough for a progressive challenger to win. In the northeast there's quite a few districts that vote for the Democrats in federal races by default, but are extremely moderate and vote for centrist congresspeople and GOP for governor.

NJ-02, NJ-03, both RI districts and the NY districts on Nassau and Suffolk counties are prime examples of that.

The district in question already has a progressive congressman.

[Zaybay]

Pressley still has a gap to close in the next 5 weeks.

WBUR/MassInc, 7/27-7/29 (403 LVs)

Capuano: 48 (+1 since June)
Pressley: 35 (nc)

Lots of good data at the link.
http://www.wbur.org/news/2018/08/02/wbur-poll-capuano-pressley-7th-district

People are evenly split between reelecting an experienced candidate vs. electing someone new with 40%-40%.

It seems to me that in this case, undecideds will split around 50/50, which would give Capuano the win. For Pressley to win, she needs to win over 90% of undecideds. Not even AOC could do that.

[Zaybay]

The poll was conducted before Healey’s endorsement, FYI, but Pressley is still an obvious underdog.

That's a good point. Primaries are inherently more volatile than general elections so I wouldn't count out Pressley.

TBH, I dont think any voters really care about endorsements, unless its from actually powerful and popular politicians, such as Sanders, Biden, Obama, and Clinton(before 2016). AOC has endorsed many candidates and it doesnt seem like it helped, while when the big 3 endorse someone, everything becomes more interesting.
Anyway, bottom line is that Pressley needs to get the undecided vote by a large margin to win, and I dont see her doing that. Best case, she gets a close race, but I dont see a victory in sight for her.


Tilt C->Lean C

[Zaybay]

The poll was conducted before Healey’s endorsement, FYI, but Pressley is still an obvious underdog.

That's a good point. Primaries are inherently more volatile than general elections so I wouldn't count out Pressley.

TBH, I dont think any voters really care about endorsements, unless its from actually powerful and popular politicians, such as Sanders, Biden, Obama, and Clinton(before 2016). AOC has endorsed many candidates and it doesnt seem like it helped, while when the big 3 endorse someone, everything becomes more interesting.
Anyway, bottom line is that Pressley needs to get the undecided vote by a large margin to win, and I dont see her doing that. Best case, she gets a close race, but I dont see a victory in sight for her.


Tilt C->Lean C

Of course, primary polls can be inaccurate. Crowley was leading by 40 points in the only poll conducted of the race, meanwhile Marie Newman was leading by a “significant margin” according to a public poll conducted in the days before the primary. It all depends on who shows up, because primaries are such a low turnout affair. MA will have an especially low turnout primary, because it’s right after a national holiday.

MA has rather decent turnout in primaries, so I have no idea what you are talking about. The reason Newman was leading was that the poll polled Dems and Indies, what they didnt poll was Rs, who were the ones to push Lipinski over the edge, according to exit polling. And, again, even if this is a low turnout affair, this implies that, like in NY, it was the progressive challenger's base who came out to vote. In this race, its a messy affair, as the Progressive base is split between the two candidates. Capuano will win the moderates, some/most progressives, and Rs who want to "prevent a radical Dem" by voting for a slightly less radical Dem.

[Zaybay]

Capuano will win the moderates, some/most progressives, and Rs who want to "prevent a radical Dem" by voting for a slightly less radical Dem.

The Dem primary is only open to Dems and unenrolled; registered Republicans can't vote in it. That said, probably all of the registered Rs in this district could fit into Capuano's car. The number of unenrolled is huge.

Ah, didnt know that. And I live in the state.

Still, I think that Pressley doesnt have enough support, backing, or popularity to win this race.

[Zaybay]

I bought Capuano shares on PredictIt.

nice, I used to hang out on that website a lot, but this one is much better, not full of pumpers.

[Zaybay]

It all comes down to turnout. Are there diehard Capuano supporters, the kind who’d show up to a primary? And if so, will they outnumber the Pressley diehards?

This cycle has seen progressive insurgents, particularly female progressive insurgents, pull off upsets all around the country. I’m not counting out Pressley until the votes are counted.

I mean, normally I would agree with you. But it doesnt seem that the progressive diehards are united around Pressley. Many, including myself, have sided with Capuano. Pressley doesnt really have diehard support, and has had trouble with outreach, and unlike with AOC, where there was clear energy behind her, Pressley doesnt have that. Capuano is campaigning more than Pressley at this point.

[Zaybay]

Yeah the difference is that in this race the incumbent is more progressive.

That’s untrue, Pressley and Capuano have the exact same platform except on ICE, where Pressley has called for abolishing it, while Capuano been more supportive of the organization (he voted present on a House motion affirming support for ICE, despite dozens of his progressive colleagues voting against the bill due to the child separations they were carrying out).

Thats one issue, and a relatively new one. On economic issues, Capuano is more Left, heavily supporting unionization, while Pressley doesnt seem to care about it. 

I should also mention that Capuano has been an effective member of the house Democrats, and will lead the transit board when we take back the house. He has really helped MA on that board, and helped the MBTA when it was at its lowest point. Pressley is the exact same as Capuano, except on one issue, and has shown to be a poor speaker(I was originally supporting her and went to one of her rallies), and an opportunist, changing all of her positions before running(she was originally one of the most moderate in Boston, and now shes running as an unabashed liberal, a total Gillibrand).

And shes not even really campaigning. AOC took her race seriously, as did Newman. Pressley has been campaigning less than Capuano. Shes just not the right choice for the district. We shouldnt throw the baby out with the bath water, and getting rid of great congressmen and congresswoman just so we can get some "fresh blood" into the Dem caucus is a terrible idea.

[Zaybay]

Yeah the difference is that in this race the incumbent is more progressive.

That’s untrue, Pressley and Capuano have the exact same platform except on ICE, where Pressley has called for abolishing it, while Capuano been more supportive of the organization (he voted present on a House motion affirming support for ICE, despite dozens of his progressive colleagues voting against the bill due to the child separations they were carrying out).

Thats one issue, and a relatively new one. On economic issues, Capuano is more Left, heavily supporting unionization, while Pressley doesnt seem to care about it. 

I should also mention that Capuano has been an effective member of the house Democrats, and will lead the transit board when we take back the house. He has really helped MA on that board, and helped the MBTA when it was at its lowest point. Pressley is the exact same as Capuano, except on one issue, and has shown to be a poor speaker(I was originally supporting her and went to one of her rallies), and an opportunist, changing all of her positions before running(she was originally one of the most moderate in Boston, and now shes running as an unabashed liberal, a total Gillibrand).

And shes not even really campaigning. AOC took her race seriously, as did Newman. Pressley has been campaigning less than Capuano. Shes just not the right choice for the district. We shouldnt throw the baby out with the bath water, and getting rid of great congressmen and congresswoman just so we can get some "fresh blood" into the Dem caucus is a terrible idea.

You keep making vague claims about how Pressley isn’t campaigning when you have no evidence.

Afiak, Capuano is the person who lost to Martha Choakley, an infamously bad campaigner, by 20 points, so I don’t think calling him an excellent campaigner while trashing Pressley is exactly based on reality.

1. He lost to her in 2010, when Coakly was still a rising start in the Dem party and a popular AG. She lost her star power after the 2010 election. If he lost to her for the 2014 gubernatorial, I would understand, but this is a false equivalency.

2. I have been following this race for a while, and Pressley has not been campaigning. She has had 1 or 2 rallys in the month of July, while Capuano has had legions of GOTV people and has even had a rally. There is a clear difference in how the 2 are conducting their campaign, and so far, Capunao is putting more effort in.

[Zaybay]

I could care less who wins the primary, they are like the same.

They are the same, but it will be interesting to watch. This is in my backyard! (Well, close to it, live in the next district over, but still)

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/AsteadWesley/status/1029784971144298496?

Yikes.

Not good.

Second quote is much worse than the Kaep critique

It is terrible, but the question is if this will get to Democratic voters in the district.

[Zaybay]

Reminds me of the Crowley comments also disparaging identity politics. These 90’s Dems are really out of touch.

I’m sympathetic to critiques of identity politics but this is not an artful/intelligent of approaching it

[Zaybay]

I still support Capuano since he will be the ranking member of the house transportation committee when we take back the house, and he has always helped us in MA out, but hes clearly getting too old for the job.

[Zaybay]

I still support Capuano since he will be the ranking member of the house transportation committee when we take back the house, and he has always helped us in MA out, but hes clearly getting too old for the job.

Respectfully, that is not a great reason to vote for a politician, especially one that's as out-of-touch as Capuano.

It is in MA. Its a really big deal, and Capuano has huge ties here for helping out our public transport. He has always helped out the MBTA, and given it the funds to expand and work properly.

While he is out of touch, it would actually be worse for MA to lose him and his spot. Especially considering the two share most of the same policies, bar one or two.

[Zaybay]

I still support Capuano since he will be the ranking member of the house transportation committee when we take back the house, and he has always helped us in MA out, but hes clearly getting too old for the job.

Respectfully, that is not a great reason to vote for a politician, especially one that's as out-of-touch as Capuano.

It is in MA. Its a really big deal, and Capuano has huge ties here for helping out our public transport. He has always helped out the MBTA, and given it the funds to expand and work properly.

While he is out of touch, it would actually be worse for MA to lose him and his spot. Especially considering the two share most of the same policies, bar one or two.

Someone who is out of touch with his party and constituents while being too old for the job should not be reelected, and the pork he would advocate for is not enough of a justification to vote for him imo.

Who said he was out of touch with the party and constituents? I only refer to him as "out of touch" because he still believes in compromise, not the actual issues. He is one of the most progressive legislators in the entire D caucus. He has advanced many programs to help those economically disadvantaged and is a big supporter of unions. It just so turns out that a major union in his district is the police union, which is why he is pro-police.

However, he has supported many bills that have helped the minorities in his district, such as supporting public transport, unionization, and access to more social services, not to mention his support of healthcare, his pro-choice record, among others. And his support of the MBTA cannot be understated, without him, the system could have gone under many times.

To replace him with Pressley just because of one vote on a pro-police bill, which makes sense considering his union support, is a terrible decision for the constituencies that have benefited from his support of the MBTA.