MA-07: Boston City Councillor to Challenge Capuano

[Brittain33]

I don't see that Pressley will get any traction against Capuano. He is a strong, hard-working incumbent with a liberal voting record and I don't think there will be any ethnic or racial polarization in the primary.

[Brittain33]

I live in this district and can't think of any examples of liberals unseating liberals on demographics and half-generational differences (Capuano isn't that old) alone. If Capuano were a conservative who adopted some liberal votes, maybe, but he's fully embraced by progressives here and institutions and there is not discontent with him. The district is diverse but not overly so. Unless Pressley has some incredible off-the-charts organizing prowess I haven't seen, OR Sanders endorses her (which would be the real X factor; a Sanders faction swept Somerville city council last year), I don't see how Capuano doesn't cruise to a win again.

Maybe she's doing this as a dry run for future Boston races.

[Brittain33]

I live in this district and can't think of any examples of liberals unseating liberals on demographics and half-generational differences (Capuano isn't that old) alone. If Capuano were a conservative who adopted some liberal votes, maybe, but he's fully embraced by progressives here and institutions and there is not discontent with him. The district is diverse but not overly so. Unless Pressley has some incredible off-the-charts organizing prowess I haven't seen, OR Sanders endorses her (which would be the real X factor; a Sanders faction swept Somerville city council last year), I don't see how Capuano doesn't cruise to a win again.

Maybe she's doing this as a dry run for future Boston races.

I doubt that about the mayor. Marty’s there as long as he wants, Boston usually has mayor-for-life

That's certainly the case. She could run for a Suffolk County office since Boston makes up most of Suffolk County, or possibly a State Senate seat.

[Brittain33]

I live in this district and can't think of any examples of liberals unseating liberals on demographics and half-generational differences (Capuano isn't that old) alone. If Capuano were a conservative who adopted some liberal votes, maybe, but he's fully embraced by progressives here and institutions and there is not discontent with him. The district is diverse but not overly so. Unless Pressley has some incredible off-the-charts organizing prowess I haven't seen, OR Sanders endorses her (which would be the real X factor; a Sanders faction swept Somerville city council last year), I don't see how Capuano doesn't cruise to a win again.

Maybe she's doing this as a dry run for future Boston races.

Mind you that this poll is not a Pressley internal. The numbers look awful for a 20 year incumbent, to be below 50% in their primary, and only running 12 points ahead of a challenger who declared 2 weeks ago. If Capuano tried to sleepwalk through the primary, he could easily lose. I get that you like Capuano, but you’d have to be pretty delusional to not think that Pressley will give Capuano a run for his money. I acknowledge that it’ll be an uphill battle for Pressley, but that doesn’t mean Capuano can just hit the snooze button.

I think that is a fair point. I live in Somerville and support Capuano. I would counter that I don't think Capuano will sleepwalk through a primary. He's ambitious and not someone who coasts, and going on the assumption he takes this race seriously, I consider him 80% odds to win.

[Brittain33]

Hoping for a Pressley win. If she can get this close with just a month of campaigning, hopefully she can pull out a win.

Why? 

Because the Massachusetts delegation is all-white and severely lacking in women. It may not be important to you, but having proper representation of women and minorities in Congress is important for some people. Tough luck for Capuano, but times are changing.

It’s more important to have competent representatives with the experience to help advance progressive legislation instead of just screaming buzzwords.  Capuano has been a great congressman and primarying him simply because he’s the “wrong” skin-color or gender doesn’t really make much sense, to say the least.  And this isn’t someone like Steve Lynch we’re talking about either; that’d obviously be another story.

I don't think Gauche is wrong about diversifying the Mass. delegation and this is the district to do it in; but agree that primarying Capuano is not the best (or likely a successful) way to do it, and the district will be vacant as soon as he can find a winnable race for a promotion. He ran for Senate against Coakley in 2009, remember, and probably will run for governor in 2022 or another Senate seat if it opens up.

[Brittain33]

I read in the Globe this morning that Capuano's approval rating among Dems in this poll is 63%-8%. Joe Lieberman, he isn't.

[Brittain33]

I read in the Globe this morning that Capuano's approval rating among Dems in this poll is 63%-8%. Joe Lieberman, he isn't.

And Pressley has a 65% - 5% approval rating within Boston, so they’re both well-liked, it’s just a matter of who best represents the interests and priorities of the district today.

You seem too bought into the idea of diversifying Massachusetts's delegation to recognize the difference between an incumbent legislator and a challenger, Gauche. Challengers win by making the race a referendum on the incumbent; good luck doing that when he has an 8% disapproval, the challenger agrees with him on the issues at her own admission, and the demographics are a draw at best. Pressley can romp in the city of Boston and still lose this race.

[Brittain33]

I live in this district and can't think of any examples of liberals unseating liberals on demographics and half-generational differences (Capuano isn't that old) alone. If Capuano were a conservative who adopted some liberal votes, maybe, but he's fully embraced by progressives here and institutions and there is not discontent with him. The district is diverse but not overly so. Unless Pressley has some incredible off-the-charts organizing prowess I haven't seen, OR Sanders endorses her (which would be the real X factor; a Sanders faction swept Somerville city council last year), I don't see how Capuano doesn't cruise to a win again.

Maybe she's doing this as a dry run for future Boston races.

I doubt that about the mayor. Marty’s there as long as he wants, Boston usually has mayor-for-life

That's certainly the case. She could run for a Suffolk County office since Boston makes up most of Suffolk County, or possibly a State Senate seat.

County office in Massachusetts is a huge step down from BCC. State Senate is a lateral move, maybe better.

Stephen Murphy seemed to think the county offices were a step up. They may not lead much further but they can be cushy jobs.

[Brittain33]

I'm already seeing signs up around my town for Capuano. Local Teamsters are coming out strong in his favor.

Blech. Hopefully they treat Pressley volunteers better than the cast of Top Chef.

[Brittain33]

When did it become "Pressley’s turn”? I'm interested in arguments about real history and facts here, not generalizations about women and minorities being crushed by the Democratic Party (and I’m speaking as someone who will nearly always vote for the woman in a primary on principle.)

Pressley agrees with Capuano on all of the issues. It’s not really possible to run to his left.

[Brittain33]

This is all happening because Seth Moulton made it hip and cool to primary incumbent Democrats here. The problem is all of our Democrats are a great fit for their district.

I don't think Lynch is a good fit for his district. McGovern appears not to be on the surface, but he's apparently popular.

Why don’t you think Lynch is a good fit?

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/ayannapressley/status/983370699237666816?s=21

Looks like Capuano won’t be able to maintain a monopoly over union support. The Chelsea Council President, Damali Vidot, also endorsed Pressley.

Electricians and technicians weren’t a group I expected Pressley to win over.

That is interesting. I think further up the thread there was a link to an article where Harris Gruman said that unions were divided because many of their members are women or people of color, despite their good relationship with Capuano. So, yes, this union is a surprising get.

[Brittain33]

This is gonna be another Newman, I think.

Pressley already has huge name ID and wide popularity within Boston, and the fundraising gap between the two isn't too daunting. It's an uphill battle unquestionably but she is much better positioned than Newman at this time.

Also, there is no significant difference on the issues like there was with Lipisnki.

[Brittain33]

Capuano has received endorsements from Marty Walsh and now Deval Patrick. That helps.

https://patch.com/massachusetts/somerville/rep-capuano-receives-second-key-primary-endorsement

[Brittain33]

I agree, I feel less confident about Capuano's chances this morning. While he has more of a base in this district than Crowley did in his—Somerville is smaller than Queens, but demographically it's not NY-14—we know that Democratic primary voters are inclined to vote for women this year.

[Brittain33]

Whatever happens, Capuano wasn't caught napping before and it won't happen now. The Globe had the Crowley comparison on its front page today.

[Brittain33]

City Councillor Michelle Wu endorsed Pressley today. A bit of a surprising endorsement, as Wu is a rising star, and she’s going against the Massachusetts establishment by supporting Pressley. She’s taking a big risk by sticking her neck out for Pressley.

Perhaps she feels that the dynamic on the City Council is more important than any blowback from the rest of the Democratic party.

[Brittain33]

BTW, the Capuano campaign canvassed my house last week. My partner and I are, no surprise, reliable voters in Democratic primaries. We haven't been contacted by the Pressley campaign. Since we live in the city where Capuano was formerly mayor we probably aren't at the top of their list.

[Brittain33]

Is Capuano likely to win?

He's favored, but no one really knows.

[Brittain33]

Capuano is an underwhelming candidate, he may be a progressive legislator, but that doesn’t mean he’s a great candidate or a campaigner. After all, he lost to Martha Coakley of all people, who is famous for being a terrible candidate.

He has a pretty successful record aside from that primary and has a big following from his past as mayor of Somerville.

[Brittain33]

Any chance for Brianna Wu to defeat Stephen Lynch?

None.

[Brittain33]

Capuano is certainly not a DINO, and neither was Crowley, for that matter! Capuano is as liberal as Pressley.

[Brittain33]

I’m sorry. I said something that wasn’t true without looking at all the facts. Capuano is not a DINO and I should’ve done more research on him before I said such a thing.

That being said, I still support Pressley in this race.

Thanks for the explanation, and I'm sorry you got caught up in the mass reaction here. Those of us who have not always been on the left side of a Democratic primary can have a defensive reaction to being labeled as DINOs because it's often a bad-faith attack instead of just a mistake.

[Brittain33]

Pressley still has a gap to close in the next 5 weeks.

WBUR/MassInc, 7/27-7/29 (403 LVs)

Capuano: 48 (+1 since June)
Pressley: 35 (nc)

Lots of good data at the link.
http://www.wbur.org/news/2018/08/02/wbur-poll-capuano-pressley-7th-district

People are evenly split between reelecting an experienced candidate vs. electing someone new with 40%-40%.

[Brittain33]

The poll was conducted before Healey’s endorsement, FYI, but Pressley is still an obvious underdog.

That's a good point. Primaries are inherently more volatile than general elections so I wouldn't count out Pressley.