2018 California Ballot Propositions Megathred

[GeorgiaModerate]

CA Supreme Court blocks the split-state initiative

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Sad! I wanted to see how the results would turn out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It wasn't gonna fly here anyways. There was negative publicity out on it

[Coastal Elitist]

I'm disappointed that anyone challenged it. Did they really think it had a chance of passing? It was at less than 15% support in the polls.

I wanted to see how low of a percentage it got and if there was a record for least supported proposition.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

I'm disappointed that anyone challenged it. Did they really think it had a chance of passing? It was at less than 15% support in the polls.

I wanted to see how low of a percentage it got and if there was a record for least supported proposition.

It seems like there's usually about a 20% floor either way. 80-20 or 20-80 are about the biggest blowouts I've seen. Can anyone think of a proposition that did better than 80% or worse than 20%?

[Ohioguy29]

How does everyone here feel about the kidney dialysis ballot measure?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Has it really been 2 months since the last post?


Anyway, fresh new polls from PPIC!


Prop 6 (Gas tax repeal)

Yes:         39%
No:          52%
Don't know:   8%


Prop 10 (Expansion of local rent control)

Yes:         36%
No:          48%
Don't know:   16%


Some interesting numerical points I found (Largely about Prop 6)
-   PPIC asked both questions with the language that'll appear on the ballot. When asked in a more general fashion, 50-46 favored repealing the gas tax and 52-41 saw local rent control as a good thing
-   Republicans are the only group where a majority (50-41) support Prop 6. It is also slightly leading with voters whose household income is below $40,000 (47-44).
-  Every region polled showed a majority against Prop 6. The most significant regions were the Inland Empire (38-57) and OC/San Diego (35-50)
- 61% of Republicans view Prop 6 as 'Very important', while 43% of Democrats & Independents feel the same way
-  Prop 6 is leading 47-44 by voters whose household income is below $40,000. On the contrary, around 55% of voters with household incomes above $40,000 plan to vote against Prop 6

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

How does everyone here feel about the kidney dialysis ballot measure?

I mean, if you want to make it more expensive for sick people to live, it's perfect

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Very happy to see Prop 6 failing

[Coastal Elitist]

Meanwhile another poll from a week ago had Proposition 6 up. https://mailchi.mp/3ff27fee9e91/week-two-calif-statewide-poll-results

As with last week, repeal has a solid lead at 43.6% “Yes” to 26.6% “No”. A plurality of Democrats intend to vote against repeal, with 27.1% indicating they would vote “Yes” to 40.4% who would vote “No”, but Independents split towards “Yes” 42.2%-15.3% and Republicans are very much in favor of repeal, 68.9%-12.3%.

SurveyUSA had an earlier poll that had yes ahead as well.

[Coastal Elitist]

The KFI-NBC tracking poll of the gas tax repeal has yes ahead. It's maintained a steady lead over 3 weeks of polling. 
https://us19.campaign-archive.com/?u=fd19d69505045f7e019bb4a7a&id=b59cb1a87e

The repeal side maintains its significant lead over ‘No’ on Proposition 6. No Party Preference voters are breaking decidedly in favor of repeal with 45.5% “Yes” to 33.45 “No.”

Yes 47% (+3)
No 28% (+1)
Undecided 25%

I'm guessing it's harder to poll propositions because we are seeing different results from different pollsters.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

How the question is asked/presented matters as well. PPIC used the official Prop 6 language while I'm unsure if TPStrat is asking in the general "Gas tax repeal: Yay or nay" route. PPIC's poll found wide divergence of opinions when using both types of questions (Much like Prop 10)

It'll be close, but I'm leaning towards PPIC's current reading

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

From the LA Times/UC Berkeley series of congressional polls. They read the complete ballot summaries for Props 6 & 10:

CA-10  (Denham)
Prop 6  (Gas tax repeal)
Yes               30%
No:               41%
Undecided:    29%

Prop 10  (Local rent control)
Yes               28%
No:               34%
Undecided:    38%


CA-22  (Nunes)
Prop 6
Yes               40%
No:               37%
Undecided:    23%

Prop 10
Yes               23%
No:               38%
Undecided:    39%


CA-25  (Knight)
Prop 6
Yes               37%
No:               39%
Undecided:    24%

Prop 10
Yes               33%
No:               37%
Undecided:    30%


CA-39  (Royce/Open)
Prop 6
Yes               40%
No:               37%
Undecided:    23%

Prop 10
Yes               27%
No:               35%
Undecided:    38%


CA-45  (Walters)
Prop 6  
Yes               33%
No:               44%
Undecided:    23%

Prop 10
Yes               25%
No:               39%
Undecided:    36%


CA-48  (Rohrabacher)
Prop 6  
Yes               33%
No:               45%
Undecided:    22%

Prop 10
Yes               25%
No:               42%
Undecided:    33%


CA-49  (Issa/Open)
Prop 6  
Yes               32%
No:               48%
Undecided:    20%

Prop 10
Yes               23%
No:               42%
Undecided:    35%


CA-50  (Hunter)
Prop 6  
Yes               44%
No:               37%
Undecided:    19%

Prop 10
Yes               20%
No:               44%
Undecided:    36%


https://igs.berkeley.edu/igs-poll/berkeley-igs-poll

[Coastal Elitist]

Survey USA polled multiple propositions statewide. Here's the link to the full poll: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=85614f00-b105-4f49-a6e5-630e246d8d52

Proposition 1: Veterans and Affordable Housing
Yes 62%
No 21%

Proposition 6: Gas Tax Repeal
Yes 58%
No 29%

Proposition 7: Daylight Savings Time
Yes 58%
No 21%

Proposition 8: Kidney Dialysis
Yes 47%
No 34%

Proposition 10: Rent Control
Yes 35%
No 46%

Proposition 11: Ambulance employees on break
Yes 54%
No 26%

Even though Prop 6 used different terminology in the question voters who already voted support it 55%-32%. At this point it shouldn't matter how it's worded everyone should now what Prop 6 is because of all the TV ads the no campaign has pumped out.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Seems like polling has been all over the place on Prop 6.

[tallguy23]

Disappointed that Prop 10 is losing but the real estate industry has been blasting the airwaves with ads. All of them are "oh no, seniors and vets will be homeless".

Typical scare tactics.

[Oryxslayer]

Disappointed that prop 7 might be passed. For us election nerds, this means we will have to wait another hour (midnight) before 55 EVs are called and give Dems the victory in the event of a Blue election - not a problem in a Republican year though. In a more practical sense, it means my old rowing team is going to have a lot more afternoon practices in the dark.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Seems like polling has been all over the place on Prop 6.

Yeah, the congressional polls suggest that it will fail. The SUSA poll? Not so much. Hopefully it fails.

Glad that Prop 7 is leading though, even if it messes with East Coast election watching. I hate when the sun sets at like 4:45.

I honestly don’t know how to feel about Prop 10. What CA needs above anything else is more housing. I’m not sure that Prop 10 would help that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

For f**k's sake, rent is through the roof in California but voters are gonna turn down an opportunity to do anything about it.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Seems like polling has been all over the place on Prop 6.

USC & LA Times also polled Prop 6 with the official ballot language. Wouldn't be surprised if their poll shows it failing compared to the big support in SurveyUSA

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Seems like polling has been all over the place on Prop 6.

Yeah, the congressional polls suggest that it will fail. The SUSA poll? Not so much. Hopefully it fails.

Glad that Prop 7 is leading though, even if it messes with East Coast election watching. I hate when the sun sets at like 4:45.

I honestly don’t know how to feel about Prop 10. What CA needs above anything else is more housing. I’m not sure that Prop 10 would help that.

Prop 10 scares some developers but is okay with others. Those who build and hold usually find rent control more acceptable. Those who entitle the land and sell the project plans, or entitle the land, build, then sell the building are more afraid of rent control because it theoretically decreases resale value.

However, NIMBY residents and antiquated zoning laws are still bigger challenges for housing production, at least in LA. And Prop 10 obviously won't address those issues. And it doesn't address the fact that even if you have a rent controlled unit, what is the "market rate" when you move in? Probably even higher than it is currently before you can benefit from the capped yearly increases.

The one size fits all SB827 approach is still hard for me to swallow, even as someone who is in favor of significant increases in urban infill development.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Seems like polling has been all over the place on Prop 6.

USC & LA Times also polled Prop 6 with the official ballot language. Wouldn't be surprised if their poll shows it failing compared to the big support in SurveyUSA

From the new batch of USC/LA Times poll numbers:


"Proposition 6: 'Eliminates Recently Enacted Road Repair and Transportation Funding by Repealing Revenues Dedicated for those Purposes. Requires any Measure to Enact Certain Vehicle Fuel Taxes and Vehicle Fees be Submitted to and Approved by the Electorate. Initiative Constitutional Amendment'
• Repeals a 2017 transportation law’s tax and fee provisions that pay for repairs and improvements
to local roads, state highways, and public transportation.
• Requires the Legislature to submit any measure enacting specified taxes or fees on gas or diesel
fuel, or on the privilege to operate a vehicle on public highways, to the electorate for approval"


"Are you familiar or not familiar with Proposition 6?"


Extremely/Very familiar:      13%    (15% LV's)
Somewhat familiar :            39%    (40% LV's)
Not at all familiar :              48%    (45% LV's)


"If the election were held today, given what I know now I would..."


Vote Yes:     33%    (34% LV's)
Vote No:      34%    (36% LV's)
Undecided:  33%    (30% LV's)


"Among undecideds, at this time, are you..."

Lean Yes:            21%    (22% LV's)
Lean No:             20%    (21% LV's)
Still Undecided:   60%    (56% LV's)


Combined totals

Vote/Lean Yes:   40%     (41% LV's)
Vote/Lean No:    41%     (42% LV's)
Undecided:        20%     (17% LV's)


https://drive.google.com/file/d/1V50AWTt3uh6YoNugWU2w9yrS0c209aHA/view

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-usc-latimes-poll-gas-tax-20181019-story.html

[Oryxslayer]

Man, the Gas tax polls are all over the place.

[Virginiá]

^^ I want to say thank god but there are so many undecideds that it seems like it could go either way.

[Coastal Elitist]

Disappointed that Prop 10 is losing but the real estate industry has been blasting the airwaves with ads. All of them are "oh no, seniors and vets will be homeless".

Typical scare tactics.

Ah so that's bad, but the ridiculous no on 6 ads are fine. It's some of the worst fear mongering ads I've seen. Making up lies about how all our bridges will collapse and traffic will go up due to increased accidents as a result of not getting their money is completely ridiculous. Roads were repaired before SB1 was passed and they will still be repaired if it's repealed.